It’s time to believe in it: ‘Ted Lasso’ standout Phil Dunster could be an Emmy dark horse

It’s safe to say that we all slept on Jamie Tartt, the arguable MVP of “Ted Lasso” by the end of its third (and final?) season, but we shouldn’t do the same when it comes to the man who plays him. Phil Dunster, who earned his first Emmy nomination this year, for Season 3 of the hit Apple TV+ sports dramedy, is currently in sixth place in our comedy supporting actor odds, but you shouldn’t be surprised if he, just like Jamie, is No. 1 in Emmy voters’ hearts.

To be fair, Dunster’s low placement in our odds is probably less a result of people believing (sorry) he can’t prevail and more a symptom of how competitive the comedy supporting actor race is. In first place is Tyler James Williams, who won the Golden Globe for “Abbott Elementary” earlier this year. He is followed by Ebon Moss-Bachrach, who is up for Season 1 of “The Bear” but got his biggest boost from his Season 2 showcase “Forks” that, along with the other nine episodes of the second season, dropped on Hulu on June 22. Next in line are Dunster’s “Ted” co-star Brett Goldstein, the two-time defending champ, and James Marsden, who was a surprise nominee for “Jury Duty” and could be a passion pick for voters. Rounding out the lineup are two men from “Barry”: Anthony Carrigan (No. 5), a three-time nominee for the dark comedy and standout of its fourth and final season who has one last chance to be honored for his fan-fave turn as NoHo Hank, and Henry Winkler (No. 7), who’s a past champ for the show.

Dunster, by comparison, has rather little going for him on paper. The 31-year-old English actor is one of just three rookie contenders in the lineup, and unlike the other two, Moss-Bachrach and Marsden — who have been working in the biz for decades — he doesn’t have a ton of name recognition in the industry. He also missed for the first two seasons of “Ted” despite the show racking up a whopping seven comedy supporting actor bids total — four for Season 1 (Goldstein, Brendan Hunt, Nick Mohammed and Jeremy Swift) and three for Season 2 (Goldstein, Mohammed and Toheeb Jimoh) — and has to get past a co-star who’s already won twice.

SEE ‘Ted Lasso’ earns rare Emmy distinction: Every original cast member was nominated

But this is what makes Dunster’s inclusion in the lineup so impressive. Not only did he edge out four previous nominees from his own show, but he did it in a year in which the Emmys switched from an unlimited ballot back to a restricted ballot and each comedy supporting acting category lost one slot after falling short of the submission threshold for eight. So the fact that Dunster was able to score (no pun intended) a nom under these circumstances is a testament to how much passion there is for his work in Season 3.

This passion could go a long way in carrying Dunster to the victory, not least because the comedy supporting actor race is anyone’s game. For everything working in their favor, each of Dunster’s rivals also has a strike against them. After underperforming in nominations, “Abbott,” which is also expected to bag trophies for Quinta Brunson in actress and Taraji P. Henson in guest actress, per our odds, may not be able to support a third acting win for Williams, who is seemingly the most vulnerable of the three by virtue of facing the stiffest competition. Though already a standout in Season 1, Moss-Bachrach gets his best material in Season 2 of “The Bear,” so voters may wait until next year to reward him. Marsden, despite being in a similar position as Dunster — an underdog whose biggest hurdle might have been landing the nom — could be hurt by “Jury Duty,” a reality hoax comedy, not necessarily being everyone’s cup of tea and him playing a (douchey) version of himself on the series. And, finally, the “Barry” boys could cancel each other out.

Then there’s Goldstein, who, you could argue, presents Dunster’s biggest obstacle. Emmy voters have shown repeatedly that they have no problem returning to the well over and over again, particularly in the supporting acting categories. So what’s stopping them from giving Goldstein a coveted third statuette this year, especially if “Ted’s” third season is indeed its last?

Both times he triumphed, Goldstein was arguably the clear MVP of the “Ted” supporting men, so he didn’t have to worry about his nominated co-stars siphoning too many votes. But this year, Dunster has given him a run for his money. While Goldstein is as good as ever as Roy Kent in Season 3, any fan of “Ted” would probably tell you that the season ultimately belongs to Dunster. Of all the characters on the show, it’s Jamie who experiences the biggest growth over the course of the series as he goes from being a brash, self-obsessed footballer to being a humbled, supportive team player. By the end of the third installment, he has not only forged a friendship with Roy, his erstwhile nemesis, but also opted to pursue a relationship with his estranged father. It’s among “Ted’s” most satisfying character arcs (so far) — one that’s worked as well as it has because Dunster has put in the work from the start.

Overcoming Goldstein will no doubt still be a tall order for Dunster, but if the former’s wins suggest anything, it’s that members of the TV academy’s acting branch have always paid close attention to the show. So if enough of them watched “Ted’s” third season, Dunster could very well have the edge — and there is nothing to suggest they haven’t. The two-time reigning Best Comedy Series champ led all comedy series this year with 21 bids — its highest total for a single season to date — and nabbed nine mentions for acting, including, notably, one for Season 3 addition Becky Ann Baker in guest.

Unsurprisingly, the heartwarming show is predicted to defend its series crown once again, but for the first time in its run, it’s not expected to prevail for one of its actors. While it’s not inconceivable that “Ted” takes home the top prize without an acting award, it would be strange for a program that’s won five acting Emmys across two seasons — the other three for leading man Jason Sudeikis (2021-22) and supporting actress Hannah Waddingham (2021) — to walk away empty-handed in acting for its most nominated and potentially final installment.

Both Sudeikis and Waddingham are shortlisted again this year, but the former faces who may be his strongest competitor yet in “The Bear” star Jeremy Allen White and the latter already lost last year. So supporting actor might be the show’s best shot at a win, which is all the more reason for you to start believing in Dunster.

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