Marin real estate: Median home price drops to $1.51M

The median price of a detached home in Marin has fallen to $1.51 million, a year-over-year decline of 11%, according to new data from the county assessor’s office.

The data are based on market activity for August. For condominiums and townhomes, the median price fell to $794,000 last month, down 9% from $875,000 the previous August.

Despite the price declines and higher interest rates, 52% of the homes sold in Marin last month went for above the asking price, said Naomi Thorne, a Coldwell Banker Realty agent whose office is in Greenbrae. The figure is nearly unchanged from August 2022, she said.

Thorne said the price reductions tend to come with less desirable homes, but those in excellent condition are still drawing multiple offers. She was the listing agent for a four-bedroom home on Orange Blossom Lane in Terra Linda that sold last month for $1.51 million, right at the county median.

“People are still out, they’re still ready and willing to compete for the right house,” she said. “The Marin market — you can’t kill it. People want to buy homes, and they’re able to, and they’ll adjust.”

Joe Burns, a Vanguard Properties agent based in Mill Valley, said that even with the price declines, elevated interest rates mean many new buyers probably have higher monthly payments than buyers did last summer. Year-over-year data show that the average monthly payments buyers are willing to accept now would have been enough for a $2.2 million home about a year ago, he said.

This suggests the market will readily accept escalating home prices when interest rates ease, Burns said.

“Unless there is a drastic change to the overall economy, or wages, then we could expect that, if rates were to drop, there are plenty of buyers that could outbid each other back up to $2.2 million,” he said. The median home price in Marin hit $2.12 million in April 2022 before beginning its descent.

The U.S. weekly average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 7.19% as of Thursday, up from 7.18% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac, the federally chartered mortgage company. A year ago, the average was 6.29%.

The California Association of Realtors, in an annual market forecast released Wednesday, said it expects mortgage rates and inflation to decline in 2024, fueling a 6.6% increase in median home prices statewide. The association expects median values for detached homes to decline 1.5% this year compared to 2022.

The association also expects the number of sales to rise about 23% next year.

“With the economy expected to soften in 2024, the Federal Reserve Bank will begin loosening its monetary policy next year,” said Jordan Levine, the association’s chief economist. “Mortgage rates will trend down throughout 2024, and the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage could reach the mid-5% range by the end of next year.”

“Buyers will have more financial flexibility to purchase homes at higher prices, which could generate increased housing demand and result in more upward pressure on home prices,” Levine said.

Statewide, the median price for detached homes was $859,800 last month, up 3% from the prior August, the association reported Monday. In the Bay Area, the median was $1.26 million, a year-over-year gain of 5%.

According to the Marin assessor’s office, median prices for detached homes in specific parts of the county last month included $4.43 million on two sales in Sausalito; $3.75 million on eight sales in Tiburon; $3.43 million on two sales in Belvedere; $2.8 million on five sales in Mill Valley; and $2.21 million on six sales in Larkspur.

Other median prices last month included $1.6 million on five detached homes in Corte Madera; $1.58 million on four sales in San Anselmo; $1.56 million on 43 sales in the unincorporated areas; $1.42 million 26 sales in San Rafael; $1.2 million on five sales in Fairfax; and $1.1 million on 32 sales in Novato.

In Ross, the county reported a median price of $1.95 million based on one sale.

Sales of detached homes in Marin declined to 139 last month compared to 192 the prior August, according to the assessor’s office. In the condominium and townhome market, the county reported 68 sales last month compared to 75 the previous August.

Elsewhere in the Bay Area, median prices for detached homes last month included $1.95 million in San Mateo County, $1.85 million in Santa Clara County and $1.58 million in San Francisco, the California Association of Realtors said. Alameda County’s median was $1.25 million, followed by Napa County at $1.06 million, Sonoma County at $850,000, Contra Costa County at $844,440 and Solano County at $599,000.

Marin real estate data

The median prices for detached homes in the county over the past year.

August 2023: $1.51 million
July 2023: $1.61 million
June 2023: $1.7 million
May 2023: $1.8 million
April 2023: $1.7 million
March 2023: $1.67 million
February 2023: $1.53 million
January 2023: $1.6 million
December 2022: $1.5 million
November 2022: $1.54 million
October 2022: $1.68 million
September 2022: $1.77 million
August 2022: $1.7 million

Source: Marin County assessor’s office