How Olivia Rodrigo’s ‘Guts’ could usurp Taylor Swift’s Grammy throne

It takes guts to follow up an album like Olivia Rodrigo’s “Sour,” but she might’ve just done it in the best way possible. Rodrigo’s “Guts” marks the singer’s first release since her massively-successful debut, which won three Grammys and scored multiple top-10 hits in the US, including two chart-toppers (“Drivers License” and “Good 4 U”). Being the successor to such a pop staple of the 2020s, will “Guts” be able to outperform “Sour” in awards recognition? What looked like it might be another Taylor Swift Grammy coronation could be undone by Rodrigo’s new effort.

One of “Guts'” strengths is that it might be the perfect balance between playing to Rodrigo’s known sound and evolving artistically. On the surface, the record doesn’t differ that much from “Sour”: both albums switch between pop-rock bangers and ballads. However, “Guts” dials up the rock energy to 10, which will likely bring some rock voters to Rodrigo’s corner at the Grammys. The rock influences on “Guts” might also make the album feel more mature, which might’ve been a disadvantage “Sour” had in the Album of the Year contest. “Guts” likely also feels more mature for ditching the all-breakup-songs format to focus on other topics, like envy (“Lacy”), body dysmorphia (“Pretty Isn’t Pretty”), the downsides of fame (“Making the Bed”) and female angst due to societal expectations (“All-American Bitch”). Still, the album isn’t too different from “Sour,” which means that the pop crowd that dug that album will likely still be here for Rodrigo’s new one.

Another benefit “Guts” has is acclaim. The album is now the most acclaimed Album of the Year contender of the season, scoring a 91 on Metacritic based on 22 reviews, surpassing Boygenius’s “The Record” and SZA’s “SOS,” both with 90. Acclaim doesn’t necessarily win you Grammys, but having such universal raves usually means that your album will be taken seriously by your fellow musicians. Furthermore, many voters might feel the album is more worthy of recognition than Swift’s “Midnights,” which is a more conventional pop record, albeit well received. Plus, voters surely are aware of sophomore slumps, so Rodrigo proving that she’s here to stay might make them more confident in casting a vote for her, knowing that she’s probably not fading away soon.

Additionally, “Guts” is a big hit. It’s not as massive as “Midnights” — at least, not yet — but it’s big enough to grab most voters’ attention. The album opened with 302,000 equivalent album units in the US, surpassing the first-week performance of “Sour” (295,000 units). This type of increase is not common. For example, Billie Eilish’s smash debut, “When We All Fall Asleep, Where Do We Go?,” debuted with 313,000 units; its follow-up, “Happier Than Ever,” marked a decrease, debuting with 238,000 units. Meghan Trainor’s “Title” had an impressive debut of 238,000 units, yet her follow-up “Thank You” started with 107,000.

So Rodrigo’s increase is quite impressive, especially considering that the album wasn’t bundled with tour tickets like some other hefty debuts on the charts in recent years. Furthermore, “Guts” has already achieved two top-10 hit singles in the US so far, including the chart-topper “Vampire.” But while the album is already a commercial success, it’s brand new, so it hasn’t been overexposed, which could be another positive for Rodrigo.

So watch out for Rodrigo this year. While she could very well get goose-egged, there’s also a chance that the stars will align for her. If she does win big, then we might have to consider her a bona fide Grammy fave, avoiding the sophomore slump that befell Eilish and Lil Nas X, who were both shut out the second time they were nominated for Album of the Year.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify record executives and music stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where thousands of showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?