Can Gators shake off struggle against Charlotte as SEC play resumes at Kentucky? | Analysis
Florida football’s roller-coaster season makes its next stop at Kentucky’s Kroger Stadium, where the Gators have experienced their struggles.
Yet, any game away from the Swamp lately has ended in defeat.
No. 23 UF (3-1, 1-0 SEC) enters losers of 14 of its past 16 trips away from Gainesville, including four consecutive losses. While one of those came against a conference opponent, a 31-24 stunner at Vanderbilt, the Gators’ last visit to Kentucky ended in their first loss in Lexington since 1986.
“There are challenges that come with going on the road and playing in this league,” coach Billy Napier said.
The Gators are only 2.5-point underdogs against the Wildcats (4-0, 1-0), but Napier’s squad will have to perform better than it did during a 22-7 win against Charlotte.
Questions to consider entering Florida’s first SEC road test in 2023:
Outside of Georgia, is Kentucky now UF’s toughest annual opponent?
Incredibly but not inexplicably, yes.
The Wildcats look to extend their winning streak against UF to three games, a development once unfathomable in this longstanding series. Yet, coach Mark Stoops has brought stability and instilled a physical, winning brand of football.
Stoops is the longest-reigning coach ever at Kentucky and in the SEC behind Alabama’s Nick Saban. Napier is UF’s fourth coach since Stoops’ 2013 arrival.
Stoops has finished ahead of UF in the 247Sports team recruiting rankings just once — in 2022 during the transition from Dan Mullen. But since 2017, the schools have split six games, with the Gators’ 34-10 win in 2020 the only decidedly in UF’s favor.
Kentucky’s 2018 win in the Swamp ended a nation-leading streak dating to 1986, but a year earlier the Gators escaped Lexington with a 28-27 win after quarterback Luke Del Rio came off the bench to rally the Gators from 13 down with 11 minutes to go.
In 2019, Kyle Trask replaced injured quarterback Feleipe Franks with UF trailing 21-10 and engineered a 29-21 comeback.
Given the lack of depth behind quarterback Graham Mertz, the Gators will need a new winning formula to avoid their first three-game skid in the series since 1948-51 when Bear Bryant won four straight as Wildcats coach.
Can defense carry the day?
Florida’s “D” has been the Gators’ backbone. It’s been awhile, but the timing has been impeccable.
Napier’s attack has been unreliable, while special teams have been an adventure. Meanwhile, a defense under first-year coordinator Austin Armstrong has been among the nation’s top units after three seasons of struggle.
The Gators held Charlotte 210 yards and recorded season-high four sacks. UF, though, forced just one turnover in four games.
“We’re trying to get more takeaways,” Napier said.
It’s also nice to be positioned to nitpick, given the many defensive collapses since 2020.
Florida ranks No. 5 in total defense (244.8 ypg) after ranking No. 97 in 2022, and No. 18 in scoring defense (13.5 ppg), up from No. 87. Kentucky offense, though, averages 7.21 yards per play (16th) while UF yields 4.66 (30th).
Something’s got to give.
Will Mertz survive behind a shaky offensive line?
An injury to Mertz would destroy the season. No Gator has been a bigger surprise or more valuable in 2023.
In the process, he’s taken a beating.
The gritty 22-year-old Wisconsin transfer took five sacks during at season-opening loss at Utah. During one of Charlotte’s three sacks, Mertz needed a moment to shake off the effects.
“That was one of the things that was disappointing,” Napier said after his quarterback was an ultra-efficient 20 of 23 passing for 259 yards and a score.
Playing behind an offensive line minus three starters exposed him, yet even at full strength the Gators’ front has struggled to keep Mertz clean.
The defensive-minded Stoops surely will push to capitalize. During last season’s upset in the Swamp, the Wildcats rattled Anthony Richardson into his worst performance of 2022.
Should Napier at times dispel analytics and go with his gut?
The 44-year-old coach’s overly conservative approach against Charlotte was a head-scratcher.
The Gators kicked three field goals inside the 49ers’ 10-yard line, twice settling for 3 points on fourth-and-1. Napier, who made his mark at Louisiana for saying “Scared Money Don’t Make Money,” has morphed into a Reagan conservative.
“The red zone issues were mental errors and fundamental technique issues,” he said Monday. “From a design perspective there was one or two plays that we could help the players with, but very technical. We know exactly where the issues are.”
An over-reliance on analytics might make the short list. Napier, like most modern coaches, and his massive staff dig into the details to nth degree.
So far the approach has added up to 11 touchdowns in 19 red-zone trips, or 57.89% — 12th in the SEC. Kentucky has held opponents to seven scores on 13 trips inside the 20 (53.9%).
After the Charlotte win, Napier even questioned kicking a late-game field goal from the 49ers’ 6.
“Ultimately the analytics say don’t go for it right there, as much as I wanted to,” he said.
Napier is 9-8 at UF sticking to his process. Some derring-do in Lexington might be warranted.
Are Kamari Wilson’s days numbered?
Wilson was the Gators’ top recruit in the 2022, a fringe 5-star prospect Napier wooed away from Georgia.
But the sophomore was not even among five safeties on the team’s depth chart last week. The Fort Pierce native appeared on the sideline during the first half, but was escorted back to the locker room.
Napier said Wilson was not among the 80-player travel squad, calling the explanation “pretty simple.”
Wilson appeared in all 13 games in 2022, with two starts. He finished with 39 tackles, 1.5 for a loss, a forced fumble and a pass breakup. Orlando area freshman Jordan Castell has filled the void and looks like a future star.
Barring a change, Wilson is a prime candidate for the transfer portal.
Edgar Thompson can be reached at egthompson@orlandosentinel.com