Oscar Experts Typing: Are we in for another wild Best Supporting Actress race?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss Best Supporting Actress, which feels wide open right now.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! I’ve had this Leonard Bernstein quote stuck in my head since we saw “Maestro” on Monday night: “A work of art does not answer questions, it provokes them; and, its essential meaning is in the tension between the contradictory answers.” I bring it up because it feels somewhat appropriate, not just for the content of “Maestro” but the state of this year’s Best Supporting Actress race. A few weeks ago, this race wasn’t particularly opaque. But now that “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Lily Gladstone has decided to campaign for Best Actress, it’s chaos magic. “The Holdovers” star Da’Vine Joy Randolph has filled the vacuum left by Gladstone’s departure and emerged as an early frontrunner to win — at least according to our odds. It makes sense, of course: “The Holdovers” was a festival hit at Telluride and Toronto, and Randolph arguably gives the film’s best performance. It feels like a real possibility that she could win. Unless, of course, someone else does. Emily Blunt sits in second place in our odds at the moment for “Oppenheimer,” and — full disclosure — I have her winning it all right now. But I don’t really believe my prediction. Blunt is excellent in the Best Picture favorite and has somehow never been nominated at the Oscars. It’s her time, etc., but I wish she maybe had a little bit more to do in the first half of the film. As it stands, I worry some voters might not be super passionate about her excellent work: she’s safe for a nomination but can she actually win? The other top choice for users and experts at the moment is one of the few performances that hasn’t screened widely: Danielle Brooks in “The Color Purple.” She was a Tony Award nominee for this performance when it was on Broadway (and wound up losing to Renée Elise Goldsberry during the “Hamilton” stampede), and by all accounts — at least from the few people I’ve spoken to who have gotten to see the Warner Bros. holiday release — she crushes the transition to the silver screen. I’ve got her nominated as well. For my final two spots, I have Jodie Foster for “Nyad” (love her in this movie!) and America Ferrera for “Barbie.” Back in August, I scoffed at folks suggesting Ferrera could get in for her performance in the year’s biggest film. Then I realized she could maybe even win? Ferrera has the “Barbie” monologue and it’s a moment that has resonated as strongly as “flat feet!” and “I’m just Ken” in the discourse. But I could also see her getting in at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, Golden Globes, and Critics Choice Awards — and then maybe getting snubbed. Still! I’ll stick with her for now, over strong contenders like Julianne Moore for “May December” and Penelope Cruz for “Ferrari.” But what do you think, Joyce? How will this category shake out and who will be our Jamie Lee Curtis ‘24 edition?

joyceeng61: I know you don’t have her, but it’s very funny that you didn’t even mention Taraji P. Henson, who’s fourth in the odds and whom many are predicting/hopedicting will win an Emmy and Oscar in the span of eight weeks. She can even win an Emmy at the Creative Arts ceremony and a Golden Globe on the same night! Amazing scheduling. Brooks has the Tony-nominated role in the revival (sorry to Jennifer Hudson), but Felicia P. Fields and Elisabeth Withers were nominated for the OG production in 2006, and as we know, Oprah Winfrey and Margaret Avery were Oscar-nominated for the same roles for the 1985 film. Obviously, the musical and narrative feature are different, and we don’t yet know what else Blitz Bazawule has done to spice up his adaptation, but if “The Color Purple” hits — as we’ve talked about, nothing has flopped yet — it’ll be easy for voters to default to double nominees for roles with which they’re familiar. Plus, co-star nominees are the most common in this category (JLC and Stephanie Hsu were the 36th instance). For a “Color Purple” lady to win, I think the consensus for one would have to form pretty early on. They don’t have the benefit of being the sole standout supporting actress with a killer song in their film like Anne Hathaway or Ariana DeBose or J.Hud did. I have Randolph in first, but I’m not confident about it. Blunt should finally get her inaugural nom and I don’t think she needs more screen time — it is a supporting role after all. Her biggest and most crowd-pleasing moments — Kitty’s scalding testimony and refusal to shake Teller’s hand — are in the last act that no “Oppenheimer” stan would forget, and the former has reached meme status (intersection of my interests here). I also have Foster, who would also win Most Supportive Friend for her turn in “Nyad.” I can see Ferrera happening at SAG, but I think the “Barbie” supporting actress we are not talking about enough is Rhea Perlman. It’d be a classic Oscar bait and switch to forego the younger star for the legendary veteran.

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Christopher Rosen: Joyce, this is why you’re the GOAT, coming in from the top rope with a name no one has mentioned at all thus far this season but who I’m sure will now become a popular dark horse as pundits follow your lead. Perlman would make a ton of sense, certainly in the same class as Jamie Lee Curtis — and, notably, I’d argue that this time last year, JLC wasn’t being seriously considered by many still clinging to double “Women Talking” nominations. I could see Henson getting nominated, of course — but at least in the conversations I’ve had with people who have seen the film, no one is singling her out right now. I’ll wait and see with Henson much as I am with future breakthrough award nominee “introducing Fantasia Barrino.” Another name neither of us have mentioned so far — but who I think could even be the eventual winner — is Vanessa Kirby for “Napoleon.” It’s possible she could also jump to lead, but I get the sense Apple would be keen to convince her to run here after Gladstone’s exit. By all accounts — and sight unseen by us — she’s a standout in the movie and as a borderline lead could maybe have a leg-up on the other contenders here, all of whom are supporting.

joyceeng61: I was actually just thinking about Kirby the other day, thanks to Ellen Burstyn and “The Exorcist: Believer.” Remember “Pieces of a Woman”? What a time. I don’t know what to make of “Napoleon’s” chances yet, not just because I haven’t seen it but voters were out on Ridley Scott‘s last two films (#justice4thelastduel). Kirby definitely feels like someone who could happen at the Globes though. Since you invoked “Women Talking,” I’ll shout out Claire Foy, who is absolutely devastating in “All of Us Strangers.” The film’s best shot at a nom right now is in Best Adapted Screenplay and Film Twitter obviously wants Andrew Scott, who’s very good, to happen in Best Actor, but mayhaps Foy could get something going in this ostensibly open category. She’d need some critics’ support to start the engine. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention one of our faves, “Air.” I don’t have Viola Davis in at the Oscars, but I do have her at SAG, where she is their god. She and Henson got their first Oscar nominations 15 years ago and lost to… Cruz.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Assessing the top-heavy Best Actor field

Christopher Rosen: Wouldn’t it be funny if Foy finally got in for “All of Us Strangers” long after Film Twitter moved off her for other faves? I agree she’s one of the best here — just an awesome performance — but it all depends on how the movie goes over. We love Davis for “Air” and I’ll give you my other personal favorite before signing off: Rosamund Pike in “Saltburn,” which is one of the year’s best movies from my perch. She is an absolute hoot in Emerald Fennell’s latest and not even an equally compelling turn from Alison Oliver can diminish my enthusiasm for what I assume is Pike’s future BAFTA shortlist inclusion. But I’ll let you have the last word — any other underdogs we haven’t mentioned?

joyceeng61: Golden Globe champ Rosamund Pike feels very Globesy as well. Right behind her in the odds are Sandra Hüller and Erika Alexander. I have Hüller in Best Actress for “Anatomy of a Fall,” which is a wall-to-wall acting showcase for her, not here for “The Zone of Interest,” which is, uh, not an acting showcase for her. She could, of course, miss altogether, but I’d bet on her in lead first. We joked about Alexander being a “breakthrough” winner the other day, but “American Fiction” would really need to pop to pull two acting nominations (and Jeffrey Wright is not locked by any means). My only wish is that we get split winners and pure chaos again before someone does the thing.

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