2023 Mets Report Card: David Peterson, LHP
DAVID PETERSON Player Data: Age: 28 (09/03/1995) B/T: L/L Primary Stats: 27 G (21 starts), 111 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.568 WHIP, 128 K, 50 BB Advanced Stats: 84 ERA+, 26% K%, 10.2% BB%, 4.96 xERA, 4.34 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 0.6 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR 2023 Salary: $750,000 Grade: C 2023 Review On May 15, David Peterson […]
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DAVID PETERSON
Player Data: Age: 28 (09/03/1995) B/T: L/L
Primary Stats: 27 G (21 starts), 111 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.568 WHIP, 128 K, 50 BB
Advanced Stats: 84 ERA+, 26% K%, 10.2% BB%, 4.96 xERA, 4.34 FIP, 3.60 xFIP, 0.6 bWAR, 1.0 fWAR
2023 Salary: $750,000
Grade: C
2023 Review
On May 15, David Peterson got tagged for six runs and nine hits over five innings in a 10-3 loss to the Nationals. It was the fifth straight outing he allowed at least four runs and his ERA rose to a season-worst 8.08. That outing also gave his opponents an eye-popping .936 OPS against him. After that start, Peterson was optioned to the minors for the second time in the season.
Peterson returned to the majors on June 27 and looked revitalized, tossing six shutout innings in a 7-2 victory over the Brewers. From that point forward, Peterson posted a solid 3.38 ERA with 83 strikeouts in 72 innings over 19 appearances (13 starts).
Peterson’s overall numbers don’t look pretty, and he lost at least one mile per hour off his fastball and sinker velocity. His slider was his best pitch in 2022, but through the first two months of the season, it graded as one of the worst pitches in baseball, with opponents lighting it up for a .336 xBA and .604 xSLG. However, the slider was far more effective after he was recalled, including an outing against the Reds on September 15 where opponents whiffed on all eight attempts against the pitch. Peterson still managed a 39.4% whiff rate on his slider, the highest he had on any of his pitches, and the xSLG against the pitch fell to .388 and the xBA dropped to .227. Walks have always been an issue for Peterson, but he lowered his walk rate slightly from 10.6% to 10.2%.
On his 113th pitch, David Peterson wraps us 7 scoreless innings with his 8th strikeout of the night! pic.twitter.com/sVVqorsQaX
— SNY (@SNYtv) September 29, 2023
The left-hander’s underlying stats suggest that he ran into some bad luck this season. His opponents had a .370 BABiP against him – and that number stood at .407 through his first eight starts. The highest BABiP Peterson’s opponents had against him prior to this year was .313 in 2022. Peterson also generated ground balls at a 54.6% rate, the highest of his career. Peterson’s home run-to-fly ball ratio jumped from 15.1% to 21.1%, though he allowed fly balls at the lowest rate of his career. In a year in which stolen bases increased significantly, Peterson did a great job controlling the running game, allowing just four steals in nine attempts, and none over the last two months of the season.
2024 Outlook
Peterson is projected to make $2 million in his first year of arbitration, according to MLB Trade Rumors. With so many question marks surrounding the Mets’ pitching staff, Peterson made a strong case for a rotation spot in 2024. He isn’t an ace-type pitcher, but he can slot in nicely as a back-end of the rotation arm. If the Mets do make significant changes to their rotation, Peterson could fit in as an extra lefty in the bullpen – the team went through most of the year carrying just one southpaw. Either way, it’s hard to imagine Peterson heading into the spring without a roster spot.
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