Oscar showdown for Best Supporting Actor: De Niro vs. Downey
Apple TV+’s “Killers of the Flower Moon” rolls into US theaters on October 18 and with it comes another mighty performance from Robert De Niro, who collaborates with Martin Scorsese once more. Headlining the film are Leonardo DiCaprio and Lily Gladstone. The movie tells the true story of the Osage tribe murders in the US in the 1920s. DiCaprio stars as Ernest Burkhart, who marries Gladstone’s Mollie, a member of the Osage tribe. De Niro features as the villainous William King Hale, Ernest’s Uncle.
As Hale, De Niro is intelligent and charming, his drawling accent and reassuring words warming almost everyone up to him. But he also possesses a vicious ruthlessness — one flick of the eye or arched eyebrow spells death. It’s a powerful performance from De Niro playing a powerful man. DiCaprio’s character is somewhat hapless. Gladstone’s Mollie is certainly intelligent and perceptive, but also quiet and holds back at certain points. De Niro, however, dominates the screen as the more colorful Hale, and it makes for a brilliant, hissable villain. The critics adore De Niro’s performance.
Esther Zuckerman (The Daily Beast) observed: “De Niro, transforming his New York accent into a whispery Oklahoman drawl, is the best he’s been in years as this genially nefarious patriarch, who is beloved in his community yet also undermining it at every turn.” She continued: “‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ never feels its length partially because of the bewitching nature of these two actors at its center—with de Niro adding a layer of smooth menace to every scene he’s in.”
David Jenkins (Little White Lies) noted: “De Niro delivers some of his most committed and detailed screen work in years, channeling (and even directly referencing) his Al Capone from ‘The Untouchables’ – albeit with a paddle rather than a baseball bat.”
John Nugent (Empire) proclaimed: “De Niro is brutally effective here, dooming a life with a single eyebrow twitch, and it is a true treat to see Scorsese’s two great muses spark off each other.”
As such, we are predicting that De Niro will earn his ninth Oscar nomination, this time for Best Supporting Actor. We think he will be nominated alongside Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”), and “Poor Things” stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe. While Gosling, Ruffalo, and Dafoe all turn in exquisite performances, it feels like it is going to be a battle between the two Roberts for Best Supporting Actor, especially as both performances have their fair share of similarities.
Both are villainous. De Niro’s is more classically and brutally evil — Hale is a murderer who schemed the death of scores of people. Downey Jr. plays Lewis Strauss in “Oppenheimer.” Strauss was also a schemer — although he plotted Oppenheimer’s downfall via politics. Still, both roles are villains. We know the academy likes these roles in this category. Sam Rockwell won for “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” in 2018, Tom Hardy was nominated for “The Revenant” in 2016, J.K. Simmons won for “Whiplash,” Michael Fassbender (“12 Years a Slave”) and Barkhad Abdi (“Captain Phillips”) were nominated in 2014, and Christoph Waltz won for “Inglourious Basterds” in 2010.
Downey Jr. is aged with his make-up and hairstyling, transforming him from the movie star we know so well. Transformative roles are also a great way to land an Oscar bid. Just ask past nominees such as Sacha Baron Cohen (in 2021 for “The Trial of the Chicago 7”), Rockwell (in 2019 for “Vice”), and winner Jared Leto (in 2014 for “Dallas Buyers Club”). This is where Downey Jr. may have the advantage. De Niro does an accent, sure, but it’s not a transformative performance.
De Niro and Downey Jr. are two huge stars. Plenty of A-listers have found success in the supporting category of late. Look at the 2020 line-up by itself — all five nominated actors were big names: Joe Pesci and Al Pacino (both “The Irishman”), Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”), Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”), and winner Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”).
Veteran actors tend to do well in this category. Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”) and Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) were nominated earlier this year, Simmons (“Being the Ricardos”) and Ciarán Hinds (“Belfast”) were nominated in 2022, and Paul Raci (“Sound of Metal”) was nominated in 2021. That seems like a point to De Niro.
However, let’s take a look at the last 10 winners in this category. Nine out of these 10 champs were first-time winners: Leto (“Dallas Buyers Club”), Simmons (“Whiplash”), Mark Rylance (“Bridge of Spies”), Mahershala Ali (“Moonlight”), Rockwell (“Three Billboards”), Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”), Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”), Troy Kotsur (“CODA”), and Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”).
Pitt, of course, shared in the Best Picture award in 2012 for “12 Years a Slave” but we’re talking about first-time acting wins. The only winner of the last 10 years who already had an Oscar was Ali, who won again in 2019 for “Green Book.” This strongly favors Downey Jr, who has been nominated twice but never won. He was nominated for Best Actor in 1993 for “Chaplin” before landing a Best Supporting Actor nomination in 2009 for “Tropic Thunder.”
Meanwhile, De Niro won Best Supporting Actor in 1975 for “The Godfather Part II” and Best Actor in 1981 for “Raging Bull.” Voters may feel that De Niro has been rewarded plenty — that is time to reward another actor whom they admire, and Downey Jr. is certainly a popular actor. Therefore, it feels like Downey Jr. is slightly ahead in this battle. Indeed, Downey Jr. is in top spot in our Oscars odds chart for this category with De Niro in second spot.
De Niro has been nominated for Best Actor five times — in 1977 for “Taxi Driver,” in 1979 for “The Deer Hunter,” in 1981 for “Raging Bull,” in 1991 for “Awakenings,” and in 1992 for “Cape Fear.” He also picked up Best Supporting Actor bids in 1975 for “The Godfather Part II” and in 2013 for “Silver Linings Playbook.” He was also nominated for Best Picture for “The Irishman.”
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