NFC playoff outlook: It’s a stress-free Week 18 for top seed 49ers

So maybe the L.A. Rams-49ers game to close out the regular season won’t the kind of drama that seemed inevitable.

Unless your idea of a Week 18 spectacle is watching Carson Wentz go toe-to-toe with Sam Darnold.

The 49ers are in as the top seed after beating Washington 27-10 and getting help in the form of Arizona upsetting Philadelphia.

The Rams are in as a wild card after winning six of their last seven games. So much for watching the 49ers crush the postseason dream for the Rams, or the Rams making the playoffs by knocking the 49ers out of the No. 1 seed.

Instead, coaches Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay will be devising ways to put their best players in bubble-wrap, with quarterbacks Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford likely getting no more than cameo appearances, giving some reserve quarterbacks a chance for some regular season reps.

Common sense says Christian McCaffrey, who gave way to Elijah Mitchell because of a calf strain against Washington, will get healthy throughout this week and the bye week. Same goes for left tackle Trent Williams. George Kittle took a nasty hit in the first half, so perhaps its Charlie Woerner and Braydon Willis getting some work.

As for the Rams, why beat up Kyren Williams when he’s proven so important in their resurgence. Or Aaron Donald, or anyone else who is necessary for a possible playoff run.

We’ll learn more during the week about who will and won’t play in a game that will be dramatically different should they meet again later this month.

Here’s how the NFC picture shapes up for Week 18:

IN PLAYOFF POSITION

1. 49ers (12-4): Every once in awhile, you wonder why the 49ers keep Mitchell around because of his penchant for missing time with injuries. Then he does something like he did against Washington (80 yards, 17 carries, one touchdown) after McCaffrey gets hurt and it makes complete sense. Mitchell and Jordan Mason figure to get plenty of work against the Rams in the finale.

Last game: vs. L.A. Rams (9-7)

2. Dallas (11-5): Don’t discount the possibility of the Cowboys (3-5 on the road) slipping up away from JerryWorld and losing to Washington. And then staying No. 2 because the Eagles fall to the New York Giants in New Jersey. I see 20 targets at least for CeeDee Lamb (13 receptions, 227 yards, one touchdown), making a late charge for NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

Last game: at Washington (4-12)

3. Detroit (11-5): It sure looks like the could lose out on the No. 2 seed because officials thought Dan Skipper had reported as an eligible receiver when it was actually Taylor Decker, whose potential two-point conversion reception was nullified for “illegal touching.” Beating Minnesota with Dallas and Philadelphia losing would poetic justice for the Lions in moving to No. 2.

Last game: vs. Minnesota (7-9)

4. Tampa Bay (8-8): Should Tampa lose the Panthers and cede the NFL’s most pathetic division to Atlanta with all three teams finishing at 8-9, you wonder if all four teams could wind up with a new head coach in 2024. That was a pretty substantial bellyflop by the Bucs in New Orleans Sunday.

Last game: at Carolina (2-14)

5. Philadelphia (11-5): Talk about coming apart at the seams. Once upon a time the Eagles were 10-1 and coming off an overtime win against Buffalo. There were cracks in the foundation even then, which was evident when they were pounded by the 49ers. But there was no way to exist the pile of rubble that exists now. “We have to get things fixed, fast,” Philly coach Nick Sirianni said. Ya think?

Last game: at N.Y. Giants (5-11)

6. L.A. Rams (9-7): The whole “Rams are the team that no one wants to play” notion softened slightly after a shaky 26-25 win over the New York Giants. But they’ve got Stafford at quarterback, Williams at running back, Puka Nakua and Cooper Kupp as wide receiving threats and Donald in the middle of their defensive line. So they’ll be nobody’s bargain.

Last game: at 49ers (12-4)

7. Green Bay (8-8): Beat their rivals from Chicago in the season finale and they’re in. It’s that easy. Except the Bears have won four of their last five and the lone loss was by three points to a playoff team in Cleveland. Coach Matt LaFleur has yet to lose Chicago as a head coach, although he won’t be advertising that this week.

Last game: vs. Chicago (7-9)

STILL IN THE HUNT

8. Seattle (8-8): Seattle’s paper mache run defense gave up 202 yards to Pittsburgh and now needs to win its last game and have Green Bay lose to sneak in to the playoffs at 9-8. The Seahawks were 6-3 in the second week of November.

Last game: at Arizona (4-12)

9. New Orleans (8-8): Here’s how Derek Carr can lead the Saints into the playoffs. New Orleans beats Atlanta, and Tampa Bay loses to Carolina. That would give them a No. 4 seed and a home playoff game. Or they could go in as No. 7 with a win over Atlanta, a loss by Seattle to Arizona and a loss by Green Bay to Chicago. The second scenario looks like a better possibility.

Last game: vs. Atlanta (7-9)

10. Minnesota (7-9): Kirk Cousins got more camera time than Jaren Hall or Nick Mullens and rightfully so. Waiting to see if the Vikings write to another ginormous paycheck to a 35-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles or bring in someone new. Russell Wilson, anyone?

Last game: at Detroit (11-5)

12. Atlanta (7-9): Even after a 20-point loss to Chicago, the Falcons can sneak into the playoffs as an 8-9 division champion but need to win at New Orleans while Tampa Bay is losing to Carolina, which has been the worst team in the NFL all season. Good luck with that. It’s a quirk of the playoff system that Atlanta is actually seeded behind a team (Chicago) that has already been eliminated. Such is the NFC South.

Last game: at New Orleans (8-8)

JOCKEYING FOR DRAFT POSITION

Actually the Bears aren’t jockeying for anything. They clinched the No 1 pick based on their trade with Carolina last season which brought the Panthers Bryce Young. Now all Chicago has to do is decide whether they’re dealing Justin Fields to draft a new quarterback or move back in the draft and build around him.

11. Chicago (7-9), 13. N.Y. Giants (5-11), 14. Washington (4-12), 15. Arizona (4-12), 16. Carolina (2-14)

SCOPING THE AFC

The only drama is for the No. 7 seed. The way Baltimore steamrolled Miami one week after blowing out the 49ers makes them the prohibitive favorite in the conference and the team to beat in the Super Bowl, regardless of what the oddsmakers say.

Current seeding for postseason

1. Baltimore (13-3), 2. Miami (11-5), 3. Kansas City (10-6), 4. Jacksonville (9-7), 5. Cleveland (11-5), 6. Buffalo (10-6), 7. Indianapolis (9-7)

Still in the hunt

The NFL saw to it their two Saturday games would have some drama as the Steelers visit Baltimore and Houston visits Indianapolis in a doubleheader.

8. Houston (9-7), 9. Pittsburgh (9-7)

Jockeying for draft position

Sean Payton begins a search for his new Drew Brees for the Broncos. Problem is, the closest thing to Brees is starting for the 49ers and he’s not getting traded.

10. Denver (8-8), 11. Cincinnati (8-8), 12. Las Vegas (7-9), 13. N.Y. Jets (6-10), 14. Tennessee (5-11), 15. L.A. Chargers (5-11), 16. New England (4-12)