Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills: Who has the edge?
Here’s a look at how the Miami Dolphins (11-5) and Buffalo Bills (10-6) match up in six key areas ahead of Sunday night’s Week 18 game at Hard Rock Stadium (8:20 p.m., NBC):
When the Dolphins run: In a demoralizing 56-19 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the run game was still one of few bright spots for Miami, even without Pro Bowl running back Raheem Mostert. Rookie De’Von Achane often found openings to go for 107 rushing yards on 14 carries, including a 45-yard burst. Achane was also effective last time against the Bills, and if he and Mostert are teamed up again, that would provide a boost to the No. 5 rushing offense.
Another boon could come if right guard Robert Hunt is able to return from a hamstring injury that cost him seven of his past eight starts. He and the other interior offensive linemen between tackles Terron Armstead and Austin Jackson will have to seal off Buffalo defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver, with Terrel Bernard and Tyrell Dodson providing strong linebacker play. Buffalo ranks No. 15 in run defense, giving up an average of 110.8 yards per game on the ground, but the Bills haven’t surrendered more than 103 since the start of December. Edge: Dolphins
When the Bills run: Buffalo’s ground game consists of both the traditional run and the ability of quarterback Josh Allen to make a play with his legs. Allen has 457 rushing yards and a whopping 15 touchdowns on the ground. Meanwhile, former Miami Central High standout James Cook, as the primary running back, has already notched a 1,000-yard rushing season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Latavius Murray spells him, but Ty Johnson got more carries in last week’s win over the New England Patriots.
The Bills’ seventh-ranked rushing attack goes against Miami’s No. 7 run defense, with defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler going against an offensive line anchored by Mitch Morse at center. Linebacker David Long Jr. has been reliable against the run throughout the season, and Jerome Baker is working to return to the lineup, where Duke Riley has played in his place. The Dolphins weren’t bad at containing Lamar Jackson’s running last week against the Ravens. The problem was, he didn’t need to run much as he threw for five touchdowns. Edge: Even
When the Dolphins pass: Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is bound to start all 17 regular-season games for the first time in his career. Leading the No. 1 passing offense, he tops the league in passing yards and completion percentage and has thrown 28 touchdowns to 12 interceptions going into the finale. He usually does have a tougher time against the Bills, though, 1-5 against them with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Granted, the one win was the last time he faced Buffalo at home.
The passing also comes tougher for Tagovailoa if Jaylen Waddle can’t go or is hobbled with his high ankle sprain after missing the Baltimore game. Tyreek Hill is dealing with an ankle injury of his own, and dealing with the tragedy of a fire at his house. Cedrick Wilson Jr. stepped up with an early touchdown with Waddle out last Sunday, but Hill didn’t keep the momentum going, with a drop of a sure touchdown on the ensuing drive. Achane was big in the passing game, too, and tight end Durham Smythe has been more involved catching passes of late.
They face a secondary that has gotten good play from cornerback Rasul Douglas, the reigning AFC Defensive Player of the Week, and always has the safety combination of Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. Buffalo also gets after the quarterback in waves, namely edge defenders Leonard Floyd, A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau, plus the interior rush of Oliver. Jackson and Armstead have to protect Tagovailoa, who will surely look to get the ball out quickly after taking four sacks and nine quarterback hits last time facing the Bills. Edge: Bills
When the Bills pass: Allen is the single most impactful player toward the outcome. He can win the Bills the game, and he can win the Dolphins the game. Allen’s play is the ultimate case of duality with his playmaking and proneness to turnovers. While throwing for 27 touchdowns, he also has 16 interceptions. Unfortunately for the Dolphins, they usually get the better version of Allen, as he’s 9-2 against Miami in regular-season meetings with 31 touchdowns to just five interceptions.
Two key players were lost in last week’s loss to the Ravens with edge rusher Bradley Chubb now out for the season to a torn ACL in his right knee and cornerback Xavien Howard likely out due to a foot injury. If Howard doesn’t go, it will be interesting to see if defensive coordinator Vic Fangio opts to have Jalen Ramsey shadow Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs after he lit up Kader Kohou last time the two teams faced off Oct. 1 in Orchard Park. The combination of Emmanuel Ogbah and Melvin Ingram will need to step up opposite Andrew Van Ginkel as the team now has to replace both starting outside linebackers in Chubb and Jaelan Phillips.
Diggs, while recording 1,096 yards and eight touchdowns, has been slowed since Buffalo made the move from Ken Dorsey as offensive coordinator to Joe Brady. Gabe Davis has played a greater role, and rookie tight end Dalton Kincaid can create problems. Cook is also a capable pass-catcher, which could be a matchup to watch against either Riley, who struggled in coverage against Baltimore, or Baker in his first game back. Edge: Bills
Special teams: Dolphins kicker Jason Sanders continues to roll coming off his five field goals against Dallas, including three from 50-plus and a game-winner. He made two more field goals at Baltimore. Punter Jake Bailey was good in his chances, but the Dolphins also had a blunder in kickoff coverage, surrendering a big return to start the second half. It helped the Ravens keep momentum on their side.
Buffalo, though, gave up an opening kickoff touchdown in its win over the Patriots and has also allowed a punt return touchdown this season. Bills kicker Tyler Bass is 24 of 29 this season, and punter Sam Martin has a net punting average of 2-plus yards fewer than Bailey. Edge: Dolphins
Intangibles: The Bills come in with the momentum of four consevutive wins and the feeling that they are still in the division race going into the final game after being three games back earlier in December. However, they haven’t looked that impressive in their past two wins against the Patriots and coach-less Los Angeles Chargers. The Dolphins are coming off a crushing defeat and have a number of injuries, but they’ve also come back from every loss this season and haven’t allowed one loss to turn into two in a row. Edge: Even
PREDICTION: Dolphins 24, Bills 20