An Underrated But Important Stat

Scoring margin is actually pretty revealing

This particular stat garners little attention although it’s perennially reported. We haven’t paid much mind ourselves, and not for any specific reason. Scoring margin is at first glance just a vanilla measure obvious in its meaning.

But, when we got to thinking about it, we saw some utility in tracking scoring margin, a measure that combines point production with organized defensive ardor, the one balanced against the other. The numbers reflect year-long effectiveness on both sides of the ball, with an accent on meaningful comparison.

You don’t have to be the best at either stifling opposing attacks or putting up points, but good enough in both areas to post a strong presence overall.

Take the 15 ACC teams that won NCAA titles in the league’s first 70 years. Just three failed to pace the ACC in scoring margin during their victorious season – NC State in 1983, Duke in 1991 and Maryland in 2002. The surprising Wolfpack was seeded 6^th in the West Regional in ’83; the Blue Devils were a second seed in the Midwest in ’91. Only the Terps, led by Juan Dixon and Steve Blake, entered NCAA competition as a No. 1 seed.

The best scoring margin ever posted by an ACC team belonged to one of the great unsung and unrequited squads in league history, a dominating group rich in talent and tenacity that fell just short of a confirming NCAA title. The 1999 Blue Devils, coached to a 37-2 record by Mike Krzyzewski, built a 24.7-point margin; that remains the best ever compiled by an ACC squad.

This season’s leader as calendar 2023 came to a close was Pitt with an impressive 17.67 scoring margin through a dozen games. Duke was second at 14.82.

Since joining the ACC in 2014 the Panthers have yet to conclude a season with the league’s top scoring margin.

Last year, Jeff Capel’s fifth directing the program, was only Pitt’s fourth in 10 ACC seasons with a winning overall mark, its fortunes buoyed by a sixth-place ACC finish in scoring margin. Reflective of that edge in points the Panthers notched a 14-6 league record in 2023, tied with Clemson and Duke for fourth in the regular season standings. At 24-12 Pitt enjoyed its best finish since 2014, the year it signed on with the ACC, and earned an NCAA bid.

Besides Pittsburgh, five ACC members — Boston College, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech – have never led in scoring margin. Florida State, South Carolina, and Wake Forest led a single time.

Duke paced the ACC 30 times in scoring margin, more than any ACC program, even with extended dry spells. From 1969 through 1987 the Devils had the ACC edge in scoring just twice, in 1978 when Bill Foster took them to the NCAA title game, and 1985 an NCAA season. Otherwise four years was Duke’s longest run without a scoring margin advantage over its conference rivals.

Thirteen times under three coaches (Vic Bubas, Foster, Krzyzewski) the Blue Devils reached the Final Four while leading the ACC in scoring margin. They also led 13 times in this century, or 56.5 percent of the time.

Last year Duke had the league’s leading scoring margin at 8.4, fourth lowest in ACC history after UNC’s 7.0 in 1960, Wake’s 7.6 in 1986, and FSU’s 8.0 in 2021.

A single margin leader, Louisville in 2016, finished as low as fourth place in the ACC.