No guts, no glory! 4 rogue Golden Globes predictions that could win (or lose) your office pool
For the most part, I agree with the combined Golden Globes predictions from Gold Derby’s Experts, Editors and Users in film and television. I mean, how can anyone bet against such heavy favorites as Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) and Sarah Snook (“Succession”)? However, on several occasions I’m going rogue and ignoring the consensus of my fellow awards pundits. Below, see my four “no guts, no glory” predictions for performers that I believe will walk up to the podium on Sunday, January 7 despite not being #1 in our racetrack odds.
Beware: copy these picks at your own risk, as they could win (or lose) your office pool. For my complete Golden Globes predictions in all categories, click here for film and click here for television.
SEE Meryl Streep’s Golden Globes nominations: All 33 (and counting)
Gold Derby prediction: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
My prediction: Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
In the last months of 2023, Randolph won practically every regional critics’ prize known to man. But I suspect that streak will end now that the televised awards are about to take place. Some pundits are comparing this race to 2017, when Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”) dominated the early awards season, but then Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”) took over beginning with the Globes. Brooks’ character of Sofia is the stand-out of “The Color Purple,” and she steals every scene she’s in with her can’t-look-away confidence. She even has a defiant musical moment — “Hell No!” — that should have awards voters screaming “Hell Yes!” all the way to the Oscars. In fact, that’s exactly what happened in this same category for folks like Jennifer Hudson (“Dreamgirls”), Anne Hathaway (“Les Misérables”) and Ariana DeBose (“West Side Story”).
Gold Derby prediction: Robert Downey Jr. (“Oppenheimer”)
My prediction: Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”)
I can easily see Downey winning at the Oscars, particularly as he’s overdue there with two career nominations (“Chaplin” and “Tropic Thunder”) and no wins. But the Golden Globes won’t feel the same urgency to reward him, as he’s already taken home two competitive trophies (“Ally McBeal” and “Sherlock Holmes”) plus a special honor (“Short Cuts”). Comparatively, Gosling only has a single Golden Globe on his mantel (“La La Land”), so a win for “Barbie” would give him a fitting bookend. Lest we forget, Gosling dominated the zeitgeist this summer as Ken, complete with his own musical anthem (the Globe-nominated “I’m Just Ken”) and a colorful wardrobe that inspired countless Halloween costumes. With Gosling’s doll counterpart, Margot Robbie as Barbie, predicted to lose her comedy/musical actress race to Stone, the supporting actor category would be the one chance for voters to reward a cast member from the #1 movie of the year.
Gold Derby prediction: Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”)
My prediction: Elizabeth Debicki (“The Crown”)
I totally get the consensus choice here. Come on — she’s Meryl Streep! This marks her record 33rd Golden Globe nomination and could result in her ninth competitive victory. But remember, this category combines performances from dramatic and comedic supporting actresses, which presents Streep with an extra hurdle. The last time a funny lady prevailed here was Jane Lynch (“Glee”) a whopping 13 years ago. That’s why I think Debicki is the one to beat. For this final season of “The Crown,” Debicki perfectly embodies Diana, Princess of Wales during her tragic final days. In fact, her story dominates Part 1 of the Netflix drama, with all of the other cast members feeling like guest stars on The Diana Show. Finally, note how “The Crown” is a Golden Globe favorite, winning an impressive seven trophies through the years, so voters may want to send it off with a goodbye hug.
Gold Derby prediction: Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”)
My prediction: James Marsden (“Jury Duty”)
When it comes to “Succession,” how much is too much? The dearly departed HBO drama is already predicted to win Golden Globes for series, actor (Kieran Culkin) and actress (Snook) for its last season. So voters might choose to “spread the wealth,” as it were, and represent a different show in the supporting races. And who better than Marsden to benefit from that decision? He’s been working regularly in TV and film since the early ’90s, but this is his first career Golden Globe nomination. Marsden plays a heightened version of himself in Amazon’s “Jury Duty,” which I like to describe as “Candid Camera” meets “The Office.” The hit show is also up for Best Comedy Series, where it’s predicted to lose to “The Bear,” so Marsden would be the best chance for voters to bang their gavels in “Jury Duty’s” favor. Do you object?
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