‘Barbie’ is the comedy Golden Globe favorite, but could something else have the last laugh?

Will the Golden Globes think pink? “Barbie,” which leads with nine nominations, is expected to win four awards on Sunday: Best Comedy/Musical Film, Best Screenplay for Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach, Best Original Song (where it has three nominations) for Billie Eilish‘s “What Was I Made For?” and the new Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category. Its Barbenheimer other half ,”Oppenheimer,” is also predicted to win four prizes, which would make the duo just the seventh and eighth films to win exactly four awards in one night, not to mention on the same night. With the genre split, “Barbie,” at the very least, is shaping up to be the most awarded comedy of the night. But is it in tighter races than one might think?

While it’s in first place in the Best Comedy/Musical film odds at 18/5, “Poor Things” is right on its heels at 18/5. The bold, wonderfully odd Yorgos Lanthimos film definitely feels like something the Globes might go for and has seven nominations, which is basically even with “Barbie” since the latter has three noms in Best Original Song. Just last year, the Globes went with “The Banshees of Inisherin” in Best Comedy/Musical Film over eventual Oscar sweeper “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” None of the other four nominees — “American Fiction,” “The Holdovers,” “May December” and “Air” — are predicted by pundits to win. “American Fiction” and “The Holdovers” are expected Best Picture nominees at the Oscars, but they underperformed at the Globes with just two and three noms, respectively, both missing screenplay and director, categories that “Barbie” and “Poor Things” hit. But with the massive success of “Barbie” and the Globes’ expanded 300-member voting body, “Barbie” feels like the safe pick here.

“Poor Things” is expected to triumph over “Barbie” in the same category in which Lanthimos’ previous film, “The Favourite” (2018), also scored its sole Globe victory: Best Comedy/Musical Actress. Emma Stone is the overwhelming frontrunner at 10/3 to win her second Globe in the category for her turn as Bella Baxter, while Margot Robbie is a distant second at 4/1, but if “Barbie” goes over huge, no one would be surprised by a Robbie victory. Even if she loses this, she’d still win a Globe as a producer if “Barbie” takes the top prize (and presumably she’d get one if it wins Cinematic and Box Office Achievement too). Just like in the film race, the other four contenders — Fantasia Barrino (“The Color Purple”), Natalie Portman (“May December”), Alma Pöysti (“Fallen Leaves”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“No Hard Feelings”) — are not expected to challenge the top two. Barrino has the only musical performance of the bunch, but “The Color Purple” was snubbed in Best Comedy/Musical Film and only earned two noms total.

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“Barbie’s” better shot at an acting win is in Best Supporting Actor for Ryan Gosling, who is in second place behind “Oppenheimer’s” Robert Downey Jr. Despite early speculation that Gosling might run or get moved to lead at the Globes with the genre designation, he remained in supporting and his scene-stealing performance is a fan favorite. But might Mark Ruffalo‘s equally hilarious turn in “Poor Things” pull some support? Without “Barbie” in comedy/musical actor, that race is another two-person battle between Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”), who are well ahead of Matt Damon (“Air”), Timothee Chalamet (“Wonka”), Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”) and Joaquin Phoenix (“Beau Is Afraid”). Giamatti and Wright are previous Globe winners and neither of their films over-performed at the Globes, so they’re kind on par on that front. You might also have to ask yourself if “The Holdovers” will win two acting awards — therefore two of its three categories — since Da’Vine Joy Randolph seems to be a lock in Best Supporting Actress.

Randolph has been the winningest performer on the critics circuit and looks poised to collect more hardware at the televised awards. Danielle Brooks is in second place and probably would give more chase had “The Color Purple” made the film category. On the off chance of an upset here, keep an eye out on “Saltburn’s” Rosamund Pike, who’s dead last in the odds — behind Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”), Julianne Moore (“May December”) and Jodie Foster (“Nyad”) as well — but is a Globes fave. A four-time nominee, she pulled off a shocking win in Best Comedy/Musical Actress three years ago for “I Care a Lot.” Noticeably absent in this category is “Barbie’s” America Ferrera, and you could flag that as a key miss Globes not loving “Barbie” that much, especially since its nomination haul is inflated by the aforementioned three song noms, but that’s probably overthinking it.

“Barbie’s” arguably most impressive potential win would be in screenplay. The Globes only have one screenplay category and it feels like any of the six nominees — the others being “Poor Things,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,” “Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Anatomy of a Fall” — could win and no one would be surprised because that’s how competitive it is, even if the odds don’t necessarily reflect it. “Barbie” is out front at 19/5, and this feels like an easy way to give Gerwig, who’s in third in Best Director, an individual win, especially since she’s not a producer on the film. But “Poor Things,” penned by Tony McNamara, is not far behind at 9/2. However, he was also expected to win for “The Favorite” (co-written with Deborah Davis), but the Globes awarded “Green Book,” which went on to win Best Comedy/Musical Film. So it really could be history repeating in more ways than one for a Lanthimos film.

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