AFC Wild-Card Round Betting Preview: Dolphins vs. Chiefs

Kansas City is a home favorite against Miami in Tyreek Hill’s return.

Tyreek Hill is making his long-awaited return to Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday for a game that projects to be more of a defensive battle than one might have once expected from the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs.

The second half of the season has seen Miami and Kansas City both struggle after strong starts. Since a 21–14 loss to the Chiefs in Germany in the first week of November, the Dolphins have gone 5–3 and are limping into the postseason on a two-game losing streak with a lengthy injury report. Kansas City is just 4–4 since that trip abroad and its shot at becoming the first team in nearly two decades to repeat as Super Bowl champs looks like a longshot at the moment.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are in a familiar position as 4-point favorites at home in the postseason. Mahomes has never played in a road playoff game while Tua Tagovailoa is set to make his playoff debut in Kansas City with temperatures projected to be in the single digits, a far cry from balmy Southern Florida. The over/under is set at 44.5 points, according to SI Sportsbook, which is one point higher than the total when these teams played in Week 9.

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Dolphins vs. Chiefs Odds and Game Info

Moneyline: Dolphins (+170) | Chiefs (-213)
Spread: MIA +4.5 (-118) | KC -4.5 (-110)
Total: 44.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-118)
Game Info: Saturday, Jan. 13, 8 p.m. ET | Peacock

Miami and Kansas City Key Stats and Fun Facts:

• Unders were 12–5 for the Chiefs this season while overs were 9–8 for the Dolphins. The under hit when these teams played earlier in the year.
• Travis Kelce’s 984 yards this season were his fewest since 2015 and Mahomes’s 4,183 passing yards mark a four-year low.
• Miami’s last playoff win was in 2000. The Dolphins are 0–4 in the wild-card round since then, including last year’s loss to the Bills.

Dolphins vs. Chiefs Best Bet: Chiefs -4.5 (-110)

Injuries are beginning to pile up for the Dolphins at the worst possible time. Miami’s pass rush was decimated by season-ending injuries to linebackers Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel and its secondary will not be at full strength as cornerback Xavien Howard is expected to remain sidelined Saturday. Reinforcements could be on the way on offense as coach Mike McDaniel is optimistic Jaylen Waddle (ankle) and Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) will be able to play for the first time since Week 16.

Waddle and Mostert both missed the 56–19 blowout loss in Baltimore on New Year’s Eve and last week’s 21–14 loss to Buffalo at home, which dropped Miami from the No. 2 seed to No. 6 and was the difference between hosting a playoff game and having to go on the road in sub-freezing temperatures. Tagovailoa tossed two interceptions in both of those losses and threw for a season-low 173 yards against the Bills. His previous low was 193 against the Chiefs, who led 21–0 at halftime in Frankfurt.

The Dolphins still boast the No. 1 offense by yardage (401.3) and No. 2 by scoring (29.2) despite back-to-back games with fewer than 20 points. Tagovailoa led the NFL in passing yards in the regular season (4,624) and Hill finished first in receiving yards (1,799) and tied for the most receiving touchdowns (13). Miami’s top-10 ground game was anchored by perhaps the best one-two punch in the NFL as Mostert ran for over 1,000 yards and found the end zone 21 times while rookie burner De’Von Achane averaged a whopping 7.8 yards per carry.

Few teams defend the run or get after the quarterback as well as the Dolphins, but their pass defense has been an issue lately as they allowed a combined 680 yards and seven passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in the last two weeks. Mahomes is still in charge of one of the premier passing attacks in the league, though he was held to 185 yards the last time these teams met.

With the AFC West locked up, Kansas City had the luxury of resting its starters in Week 18, which saw Blaine Gabbert lead the team to a 13–12 win over the Chargers. Mahomes looked sharp last time out as he finished with 245 yards and a touchdown in a 25–17 win against the Bengals to knock them out of playoff contention. That game ended a four-week interception streak and also marked the first time since Week 12 that a Chiefs pass-catcher went over 100 yards (Rashee Rice).

Isiah Pacheco also hit his stride in his second game back from injury against Cincinnati. He ran for a season-high 130 yards and caught Mahomes’ only touchdown of the day. Unlike Pacheco, Kelce did not end the regular season on a high note. The veteran tight end finished with just three catches for 16 yards — his only outing with fewer yards came against the Dolphins and he’s now gone six straight games without a touchdown.

Drops have been an issue for Kansas City since September and unsurprisingly they finished with the second-most in the NFL (40). Compare that to the Dolphins’ pass-catchers, who dropped 23.

The Chiefs enter the postseason with the second-best scoring defense in the NFL (17.3 points per game) behind the Ravens. Kansas City is one of two teams with more sacks than Miami and unlike the Dolphins its top two pass-rushers, Chris Jones and George Karlaftis, are both healthy heading into the playoffs. Where this unit lags behind others is in the turnover department: The Chiefs finished tied with the Cardinals for the fifth-fewest turnovers forced (17) and thus had a poor differential as Mahomes threw a career-high 14 interceptions this year.

There’s a lot working against Miami in this matchup. The Dolphins went 1–5 against the spread as an underdog and that one win was against the Chargers in Week 1. Since then, they lost by 28, 14, seven, 37 and seven points as an underdog of no more than three points, making this Miami’s largest underdog position of the season. Quarterbacks making their first career playoff start against quarterbacks with postseason experience are also 17–35–1 against the spread since 2002, which applies to the Tagovailoa-Mahomes matchup.

Kansas City has been no juggernaut at home this season with a 4–4 record straight up and against the spread. However, the Chiefs are 9–5 against the spread in the playoffs with Mahomes under center. Historically, they deliver when it counts and the injury report and weather conditions both favor the home team.

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