Grammy predictions: With pop stars pushed out of EDM, bet on Fred Again

With past winners including dance icons like Daft Punk, Basement Jaxx and Lady Gaga, the dance/electronic categories at the Grammys are an eclectic mix of pop-dance stars and dedicated electronic musicians. This year’s field, rid of pop stars due to the creation of the new Best Pop Dance Recording category, is likely the purest to the dance scene it’s been in ages with big names like James Blake, Skrillex, Fred Again, and Kx5 all battling it out for the gold trophies. So who will win these two EDM categories?

Best Dance/Electronic Recording
It might be a good night for British producer Fred Again, who’s up for Best New Artist along with three more nominations, two of which are in this very category. Out of his two bids here, the likeliest to pay off is his Skrillex-assisted “Rumble,” which is also the biggest hit in the category. “Rumble” has amassed over 100 million streams on Spotify, making it three-times as streamed as the next song in line: Fred’s own “Strong,” with British artist Romy. But popularity isn’t the only thing going for the track. Skrillex’s name will likely help: he is a field favorite with eight Grammy wins to his name.

If someone were to upset, it might be James Blake with “Loading,” the lead single off of his album “Playing Robots into Heaven.” The track wasn’t a huge smash hit, but Blake is a consistent Grammy nominee and might be more of a highbrow pick for the academy. Still, this is one of those categories where you should play it safe: all signs point to “Rumble” taking the prize home.

If Fred wins, he’ll continue the trend of dance/electronic Best New Artist nominees winning here, with Skrillex (“Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites”), The Chainsmokers (“Don’t Let Me Down”) and Kaytranada (“10%”) all prevailing in this category the years they were nominated for BNA. Along with Fred, they’re the only dance/electronic artists to be up for that award this century.

Will win: Skrillex, Fred Again and Flowdan, “Rumble”
Could win: Romy and Fred Again, “Strong”
Dark horse: James Blake, “Loading”

Best Dance/Electronic Album
Kx5 and The Chemical Brothers both missed nominations in the above Dance/Electronic Recording category, so there might be limited support for them here. If that’s the case, this race will come down to James Blake’s “Playing Robots Into Heaven,” Skrillex’s “Quest for Fire,” and Fred Again’s “Actual Life 3.”

The last of those might have the advantage for a few reasons. First, Best New Artist nominees who are up for this award tend to win it, with Skrillex (“Scary Monsters and Nice Sprites”) and Kaytranada (“Bubba”) being recent examples. Fred is also clearly loved, as he managed to score not one but two nominations in the Dance/Electronic Recording category. But the cherry on top might be that “Actual Life 3” earned a Brit Award nomination for Album of the Year, a huge feat for purely electronic album. His lineup included recent Grammy-winning records like Wet Leg’s “Wet Leg” and Harry Styles’s “Harry’s House.” On top of all that, Fred’s viral “Tiny Desk Concert” was one of the biggest videos from that series in 2023.

The other two could still win, though. Blake has the most acclaimed album here, scoring an 80 on Metacritic. Skrillex’s album, meanwhile, was just as successful as Fred Again’s worldwide, but with the added advantage of being the biggest commercial hit among these nominees in the US. And that’s before you take into account his sterling Grammy track record. Still, the biggest album doesn’t always win, and Fred Again feels like that brand new talent that voters will be eager to award.

Will win: Fred Again, “Actual Life 3”
Could win: Skrillex, “Quest for Fire”
Dark horse: James Blake, “Playing Robots into Heaven”

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