Grammy predictions: Can anyone beat Maluma and Karol G in Latin categories?

The Latin categories at the Grammys are exciting this year. With previous winners ranging from Rosalía and Calle 13 to Ricky Martin and Bad Bunny, let’s take a look at who’s out front for wins this year for Best Latin Pop Album, Best Música Urbana Album, and Best Latin Rock/Alternative Album.

Best Latin Pop Album
This is one of the most up-in-the-air categories. While it has been somewhat predictable in past years, mainly due to big names with huge projects being nominated, this year’s contenders range from more under-the-radar artists to well known stars with relatively muted releases. Pablo Alborán and Maluma are the biggest names here, so if you want a safe bet, then you might choose one of the two.

Alborán is a perennial bridesmaid, though, being goose-egged every year at the Latin Grammys, so it might be hard for him to win at the more competitive Grammys. Maluma might also have an upper hand due to the fact that his nominated album, “Don Juan,” features the TikTok hit “Según Quién,” and also has the Latin Grammy-nominated song “La Fórmula.” The only problem with predicting Maluma is that the album didn’t make much noise beyond those two songs, and we haven’t been able to gauge its full awards potential yet since it came out just three weeks prior to the end of eligibility.

However, you might want to keep an eye out for a third person here: Gaby Moreno. A couple of years ago, Claudia Brant won this category in a shocking upset, especially considering Brant was relatively unknown compared to her heavy competition that year (including Alborán). Brant is an academy member, however, and was very much active in the organization, being a trustee, so that probably earned her a lot of support from fellow members. Moreno could be on a similar path, being a previous nominee for her work despite not being a huge seller, mostly due to respect from her peers. So, if Maluma feels like a weak frontrunner to you, then you might want to go for her.

Will win: Maluma, “Don Juan”
Could win: Pablo Alborán, “La Cuarta Hoja”
Dark horse: Gaby Moreno, “X Mí (Vol. 1)”

Best Música Urbana Album
Considering how big Karol G’s 2023 was, it’s going to be a huge shocker if her “Mañana Será Bonito” does not take this category. Her dominance in the Latin-sphere might just be too great for her rivals to overcome. Tainy, who is nominated for “Data,” might be next in line just based on his status as a legendary reggaeton producer. Plus his record features a lot of heavy hitters in the genre, like Bad Bunny and Wisin and Yandel.

There’s also Rauw Alejandro, whose “Saturno” was a big hit this year, producing Latin hits like “Lokera” and “Punto 40.” Still, it pales in comparison to Karol G, whose album was the first all-Spanish record by a female artist to debut at number-one in the Billboard 200. “Mañana Será Bonito” is also chock full of hits, from the international smashes “Provenza” and “TQG” to the Latin hits “Amargura,” “Cairo” and “Mientras Me Curo del Cora.”

What’s more, Karol recently won three Latin Grammys, including Album of the Year, quite the feat considering urban records rarely win that category. (For perspective, Bad Bunny’s “Un Verano Sin Ti,” the first all-Spanish album nominated for Album of the Year at these Grammys, couldn’t even do it). Best Música Urbana Album will therefore be a coronation for Karol G, especially with it being her first win at these awards.

Will win: Karol G, “Mañana Será Bonito”
Could win: Tainy, “Data”
Dark horse: Rauw Alejandro, “Saturno”

Best Latin Rock/Alternative Album
This category is a two-way race between Latin legends. On one hand, there’s Juanes, whose “Vida Cotidiana” has continued his awards success. He recently won this category for his previous album, “Origen,” and his latest record took home the Latin Grammy for Best Pop/Rock Album. Then there’s Natalia Lafourcade, whose “De Todas las Flores” was massively acclaimed. Lafourcade won three Latin Grammys this year, including Record of the Year and Best Singer-Songwriter Album.

Of the two, Lafourcade seems like the buzzier pick, especially since it picked up more Latin Grammys. Since both have the same number of wins at these Grammys (three), I’ll toss a coin and go with “De Todas las Flores.” Still, Juanes is a legend and has been a consistent nominee since the early 2000s, so don’t rule him out. The dark horse here would be Fito Páez, another Latin legend, with his album “EADDA2023,” but considering he couldn’t win a Latin Grammy and is up against two bigger hits, he might have to sit this one out.

Will win: Natalia Lafourcade, “De Todas las Flores”
Could win: Juanes, “Vida Cotidiana”
Dark horse: Fito Páez, “EEADA2023”

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