It's a make-or-break week for the stock market. Here's why.

In today's big story, we're looking at why this is such a big week for the stock market.

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Welcome back! If you're still curious about what prompted Netflix's movie boss to depart, it seems like it was a dispute over quality versus quantity.

In today's big story, we're looking at why this is such a big week for the stock market.

What's on deck

• Markets: JPMorgan's succession plans for Jamie Dimon sort of got an update.

• Tech: When the IPO window reopens, these healthcare startups will be first in line.

• Business: China Evergrande was ordered to liquidate, but experts say there may be little to recover.

But first, it's make-or-break time. 

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The big story

A week to remember

We're less than a month into 2024, but this week could determine the market's trajectory for the rest of the year. 

Big Tech earnings, a Fed meeting, and the January jobs report are all on tap, giving investors a slew of data to chew on, Business Insider's Matthew Fox writes. 

Microsoft and Alphabet report on Tuesday, while Amazon and Apple check in on Thursday. The quartet represents nearly $10 trillion in market cap.

At Wednesday's Fed meeting, rate cuts aren't expected, but Jerome Powell's speech will offer clues to the central bank's longer-term plans. 

And the week rounds out with a jobs report that'll give investors a sense of whether the economy is cooling — indicating a more urgent need for rate cuts — or strong enough to delay the Fed's plans for relief.

The information overload comes amid an uncertain time for Big Tech and the broader stock market. 

The S&P 500 is up roughly 3% on the year, but even market experts who predicted a banner 2024 are hesitant about its short-term future. 

A key part of that equation is the Magnificent Seven — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla — which accounted for over 60% of the S&P 500's 25% gain last year.

This year has been more of a mixed bag. Nvidia is already up more than 26% this year, while Tesla is down over 26% after a brutal earnings miss last week. 

Other members haven't faced extreme price swings but are still dealing with drama. 

Apple is on the cusp of its biggest product launch in nearly a decade with the Vision Pro's release on Friday and in the midst of a massive change to its App Store. At Google, employees and management are at odds over what some say is the deterioration of the company's famous culture.

Even if company executives don't answer all of the analysts' questions, we'll still get a sense of the tech giants' 2024 plans, which is crucial for the wider market. 

But focusing entirely on the Magnificent Seven, as tempting as it might be, might not be your best bet. 

Fundstrat's Tom Lee, who nailed his 2023 market outlook, sees stocks outside the elite group performing well. And Amundi, one of the largest asset managers in the world, actually expects the Magnificent Seven to underperform.

Still, positivity prevails for some. The CEO of one public company I spoke to last week has bought into the chances of the Fed pulling off a soft landing despite their doubts a year ago. 

"I'm more of an optimist right now," the CEO said.

Read more here.

News brief

Your Monday headline catchup

A quick recap of the top news from over the weekend:

• Jury awards E. Jean Carroll $83 million verdict from Donald Trump defaming her.

• Ronald Reagan's speechwriter says Nikki Haley can get the jump on Trump.

• Biden promises retaliation after 3 US troops are killed in Jordan, escalating Middle East conflict.

• If fans expect Taylor Swift to be at the Super Bowl given her scheduled concert in Japan, there's only one way to make it happen.

• A convoy calling themselves 'God's army' plans to head to the Texas border to stop migrants from entering the US.
  

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  3 things in markets

1. Life after Jamie Dimon at JPMorgan. A leadership shuffle at the biggest US bank provides hints about succession plans. Here's what the new roles for Jennifer Piepszak, Marianne Lake, and Troy Rohrbaugh mean for how the bank thinks about Dimon's eventual replacement. 

2. Billionaire Jeffrey Gundlach: Buckle up for a bumpy ride in the markets. The DoubleLine Capital CEO believes a recession is imminent and suggests holding onto cash. When he's ready to dive back in, he sees the most value in markets like India and Japan.

3. Mohamed El-Erian isn't sold on a soft landing. The famed economist pointed to headwinds like a slowdown in consumer spending and stubborn inflation as causes for concern. "There's a real risk that growth slows to the one to one and a half percent level," El-Erian said of GDP.

3 things in tech

1. Amazon is about to shake up the TV ad marketplace. Prime Video viewers will be subjected to ads on their favorite shows, effective today. That'll snap up market share from traditional players like Comcast and Warner Bros. Discovery, and could boost Amazon's revenue by billions.

2. These 7 healthcare startups are primed to IPO once the market reopens. While healthcare experts are split on whether the IPO window will reopen in 2024, several startups seem to be getting ready to go public. Those include Lyra Health and Maven, VCs and bankers told us.

3. Get in, we're going tech shopping. Newegg, an online retailer, is the newest place to buy refurbished iPhones, MacBooks, and other products — and could give Apple a run for its money in preowned devices.

3 things in business

1. A Hong Kong court has ordered the liquidation of China Evergrande. Liquidators will now take control of the company's assets and prepare to sell them in order to repay the company's debts, which total $300 billion. However, experts say there may be little to recover.

2. Americans literally only care about the price of three things. Economic data isn't significantly different from six months ago, but everyone feels much better about things. Why? Because the prices of eggs and gas are down while stocks are booming.

3. Boeing's 737 Max crisis could become the US economy's problem. The knock-on effect from the Alaska Airlines incident could be a shortage of airplanes for airlines to use, according to an aviation expert. That'll impact everything from commercial flights to supply chains.

In other news

• Tech layoffs are expected to continue as companies seek to hire more AI talent, analyst says.

• Elon Musk's startup is reportedly building up a war chest to take on OpenAI.

• Netflix co-CEO says the app isn't on Apple's Vision Pro because it isn't worth their time yet.

• How 'naked greed' caused best friends and Forge co-founders to go to war over control of their latest startup Destiny XYZ.

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  What's happening today

• Earnings today: Ryanair and other companies.

• Amazon Prime Video is launching its ad-supported tier in the US.

• The Internal Revenue Service opens the 2024 tax filing season.

The Insider Today team

Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, editor, in London. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York.