5 Overreactions to the NFL Championship Round
Nothing generates as much buzz and excitement as the NFL. Week after week, the intensity continues to be ratcheted up as we race toward the postseason. As usual, several noteworthy headlines emerged from this week’s gridiron action.
Without further ado, here are five overreactions to what we saw in the NFL Championship Round:
5. Dan Campbell has Deep Rooted Mistrust in Kickers
In today’s modern age of analytics, you’re always going to piss someone off with your decision-making. That is particularly true for a guy like Dan Campbell, who goes for it more often than anyone else in the NFL. But some lessons are free, and the Detroit Lions head coach should pay attention.
As we all know, the Lions lost the NFC Championship to the San Francisco 49ers by three points. Campbell shouldn’t lose sight of electing to run plays on two crucial fourth downs in the second half rather than kick the field goal. First, Detroit sat fourth-and-two on the Niners’ 28-yard line in the third quarter. Then, with less than eight minutes to play, the Lions decided to go for it again from the 30-yard line on fourth-and-three.
This is where analytics and coaching philosophies need to converge. Analytically, it was basically a toss-up. Detroit’s probability of winning remains unchanged by either going for it or kicking the field goal. In both circumstances, the Lions needed more points on the board, and going for it once could have made all the difference.
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4. Nobody Cares About Travis Kelce’s Record-Setting Day Because Taylor Swift
History was made this past weekend as Travis Kelce hauled in his 152nd postseason reception, breaking Jerry Rice’s NFL record. But instead of talking about his playoff longevity or dominance in January, most people are talking about Taylor Swift.
Kelce had one hell of an outing against the Baltimore Ravens. The four-time All-Pro caught all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown, an effort unlike anything we’ve seen from Kelce this season.
Still, people would rather talk about his girlfriend than his record-setting performance.
3. Someone Should Tell Brock Purdy He’s Playing Two Second Halves in Super Bowl LVIII
The 49ers exorcized their playoff demons this weekend, finally getting over the hump and punching their ticket back to the Super Bowl. Much like last weekend’s Divisional Round bout versus the Green Bay Packers, it was too close for comfort. Brock Purdy must bear at least some of that responsibility, as he’s come out flat in both contests.
Of course, coming out flat is putting it nicely. Purdy has been the flaming bag of dog turds that refuses to be stomped out in the first half of games. The 49ers quarterback has failed to lead his team on a scoring drive in the first quarter of either game, combining for just 14 first-half points in the playoffs. Subsequently, Purdy has gone on to score 44 points in the second half, with all of his underlying metrics substantially improving.
For the sake of the 49ers, someone needs to tell Purdy that he’s playing two-second halves in Super Bowl LVIII. Otherwise, Kyle Shanahan’s not making it out of the big game with clean loafers.
2. Stop Adding Fuel to the Kansas City Chiefs’ Fire
Something about the underdog mentality brings out the best in people. And we saw Patrick Mahomes allude to as much in his post-game interview on Sunday. The Chiefs’ pivot noted that he and his teammates entered their last two games as underdogs, using it as motivation to come out and prove naysayers wrong.
Installed at +1.5 underdogs again for the Super Bowl, Kansas City will not be short on motivation.
1. The Niners Didn’t Win the NFC Championship, the Lions Lost It
Although it will be the San Francisco 49ers representing the NFC in the Super Bowl, we all know it should have been the Detroit Lions.
Dan Campbell and the Lions couldn’t get out of their own way on Sunday. Questionable decision-making, dropped passes, and not enough emphasis on the ground game, while they were up big, will all come back to haunt Detroit.
This isn’t one player or coach’s cross to bear, but the Lions should have been the NFC representative in the Super Bowl.
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