Joel Embiid's MVP odds have taken a big dip because his award eligibility is running out

As the NBA reportedly investigates the Philadelphia 76ers’ injury reporting after their late scratch of Joel Embiid before Saturday’s game against the Denver Nuggets, the reigning MVP’s dwindling award eligibility should be a sign it wasn’t a decision the team made lightly.

Despite online speculation that Embiid may have been ducking a rematch against annual MVP rival Nikola Jokic, Embiid also missed Philadelphia’s following game Monday with the same knee injury. And the accumulation of absences has put him on the brink of ineligibility for regular-season awards.

The NBA implemented a new rule this season that requires players to participate in at least 65 of 82 games to be eligible for awards like MVP, Defensive Players of the Year and All-NBA honors. That means players can only miss 17 games in a season, and Embiid has already missed 12 entering Tuesday, ahead of the Sixers’ meeting with the Golden State Warriors.

"[Joel Embiid] didn't enter the injury report, I'm told, until fifteen minutes before tip off, and for sure that's something that the league will have to review."@ShamsCharania on Embiid sitting out against the Nuggets.

: https://t.co/wdT8I0ST8g pic.twitter.com/i1s0i6jzzU

— Run It Back (@RunItBackFDTV) January 29, 2024

Because Embiid can only miss five of their remaining 37 games, hope that he’ll reach the minimum is beginning to dwindle, as reflected by his MVP odds. The NBA’s scoring leader has slid from the favorite just a week ago at +120 to third at +500, barely ahead of fourth-place Luka Doncic at +600. It’s wild to think about considering how dominant he’s been this year.

FTW’s Mike Sykes wrote weeks ago about how the only person who could stop Embiid from winning back-to-back MVPs was Embiid himself, and that appears to be coming to fruition. Jokic is now the favorite again at +100, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is second at +350.

Embiid likely cares more about being healthy for the postseason than winning another MVP award, but it’s not impossible that he could still push through and make it to the end. The upcoming All-Star break should provide a nice opportunity for him to get rested for the stretch run.