40 in 40: Whole Lotta Red (Matt Brash’s Version)

Matt Brash has lit up his savant page, but can he make it redder?

Matt Brash has emerged as one of the premier bullpen arms of the American League, which is surprising considering just two years ago, Brash arrived as a fresh-faced rookie and a player to be named later in the trade that sent the Padres reliever Taylor Williams. Since then, Brash has impressed the Mariners’ organization and rocketed his way up from single A to earning a spot in the starting rotation in spring training 2022. Of course, as we all know, Brash would be sent down to Tacoma a few months later to deal with control issues that limited his effectiveness as a starter, as evidenced by his 7.65 ERA and 20 innings pitched in 5 starts for the M’s. Upon his return, Brash came in and threw a 1-2-3 inning with two strikeouts on the way to a 2-1 victory, and the rest, as they say, is history. Since the transition, Brash has solidified himself quickly as one of the most reliable and effective pitchers out of the pen for the Mariners. The 25-year-old led the league in games pitched in 2023 and took his game to a new level, resulting in a whole lot of red on his savant page.

Brash’s effectiveness has been mainly due to his signature pitch: the slider. Brash has used his massive slider to dominate batters throughout the year.

The effectiveness of Brash’s slider has been crucial to his success against right-handed hitters like Fernando Tatis Jr.

The slider has been the core pitch in Brash’s arsenal, generating tons of swings and misses to both sides of the plate, posting a whiff% of 48.5% and a putaway percentage of 30.5%. As with many sub-fastball pitches, Brash’s slider tends to come in at about the same height as his fastball, further deceiving hitters. Both pitches post hardly any vertical movement, but while the fastball keeps coming, the slider dives away at the last minute, leaving the poor batter spinning.

Secondary to the slider has also been the strength of Brash’s curveball/knuckle curve (Savant credits him for both somehow?), which has been just as crucial in helping Brash to battle against British style hitters (lefties. Get it? Because they drive on the left). As the only pitch Brash throws to lefties more than righties, it has become a crucial putaway pitch for him against left-handed hitters, posting a solid 28% whiff% and 19% put away percentage. Though relatively low compared to the slider, the pitch is vital to Brash’s arsenal when facing lefties. However, the pitch is much more likely to be hit hard and has been posting an atrocious .307 batting average against and a .400 slugging percentage. Though Brash has thrown the curveball less than he did in 2022, the higher averages could result from a smaller sample size being skewed by bigger hits. The number of big hits may have remained the same, but they may now be taking up a larger percentage of the sample size. But hey, we’re not here to talk nuance; if I know one thing about sports, it’s to take a surface-level narrative and run with it.

Brash has also started to tinker with the addition of a cutter and a sinker. Much like the rest of the Mariners pitching staff, they all love adding as many pitches as humanly possible. So far, for Brash, the pitches have seen limited use (53 and 39 pitches, respectively), but early results seem promising. Both pitches have produced solid whiff percentages and low exit velocities. While other teams have been making solid contact for the moment, both pitches will likely be further along by opening day.

Despite this massive breakout year and the heaps of praise and attention Brash has received, he is far from being a perfect product. Most notable would be his abysmal walk rate. While Brash has gotten it down significantly from 2022, 3.7 walks per 9 combined with a 9.4% walk rate is still pretty poor. A large part of that is Brash still struggles a fair bit with his control. Brash has had more success this year due largely to the high chase rates and swings and misses he’s been able to generate, along with a high chase rate, primarily on his slider.

However, more often than not, his actual pitching ended up outside of the zone; in fact, only the fastball was located in the zone more than 50% of the time at a whopping 55% in zone percentage. His worst pitch location was the curveball, which was only in the zone 38% of the time, while the slider checked in at a measly 41% of the time.

While so far it hasn’t been an issue, Brash has been able to fool hitters and generate a lot of swings and misses on his pitches despite the lack of location. It’s only a matter of time before the league catches up. Hitters will have more film and an entire offseason to study Brash, and with his newfound fame, he will almost certainly end up on scouting reports this year. Brash must continue working on his location to gain the most effectiveness from his pitching style.

While Brash has taken huge steps forward in 2023 and has been improving, without developing a consistent location, it’s unlikely that he can maintain the success he has had so far. The key for Brash in 2024 is to continue to add to his repertoire and work away his location issues.