Oscars scorecard: ‘Oppenheimer’ heads into BAFTAs as the clear frontrunner
The 35 boxes theory aims to track a potential Oscar Best Picture winner’s popularity across the entire awards season. We catalog important nominations and wins at the precursors. The more boxes you tick off, the more popular your movie is across the board, and the higher its chances of winning Best Picture at the Oscars.
For example, in 2019, “Green Book” won 23 of these 35 boxes before winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Conversely, “Roma” filled in only 19 boxes while both “BlacKkKlansman” and “The Favourite” were at 20. Each of the three previous Best Picture winners prior to “Green Book” numbered among the top three entries on our season-end charts.
The last round saw the BAFTA nominations move “Oppenheimer” into pole position. This round, there was only one box up for grabs: DGA Winner. The nominees here were Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”), Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”), Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”), and Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”). It was Nolan who took home the award. Let’s see how that affects the standings.
So, that means that “Oppenheimer” now sits on an impressive 24/35 boxes ticked. The movie is five ahead of “Poor Things” and seven ahead of “Killers of the Flower Moon.”
In fourth is “The Holdovers” while “Barbie” and “Anatomy of a Fall” are in joint sixth place with 15 apiece. Then there’s “Maestro” in seventh with 13, “American Fiction” and “Past Lives” in joint ninth with 10, and “The Zone of Interest” in 10th with eight.
Next up are the BAFTA Awards on Sunday, February 18. We fully expect “Oppenheimer” to press even further forward and turn its nominations for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor into wins. It could also win for writing, too. Stay tuned.
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