Next Up - Florida State
A road trip to Tallahassee is rarely an easy time for Duke
Date 2/17 || Time 2:00 || Venue Donald L. Tucker Center || Video ESPN
Next up for Duke is Florida State in Tallahassee, and that’s been a difficult trip for Duke in recent years.
But since the pandemic hit, Leonard Hamilton has struggled. In the pandemic year - which again, we say shouldn’t be counted against anyone - FSU finished 26-5 and was going to get a bid until the tournament was canceled. The following year, Florida State made the tourney with an 18-7 record and got to the Sweet Sixteen (keep in mind that many games were still being postponed or canceled). The year after that, 2021-22, FSU finished 17-14 and in 8th place in the ACC. Last year the wheels fell off and the ‘Noles were just 9-23 and so far this year, Florida State is above .500, but barely at 13-11.
It’s been a pretty sharp decline but there are reasons. First are injuries. FSU has had a really tough time in that department lately. And second is just the changing nature of college basketball.
We don’t know much about Florida State’s NIL arrangements, but you can reasonably expect that the focus will be on football.
A look at their roster shows that Hamilton has had some luck with the portal. Jamir Watkins (VCU), Jason Simpson (St. John’s), Josh Nickleberry (Louisville), Cam’Ron Fletcher (Kentucky), Primo Spears (Georgetown), Jaylan Gainey (Brown) and Darin Green (UCF) all came through the portal.
So he’s getting players, but the portal and NIL have changed the game dramatically and at 75, Hamilton may not be able to adjust as quickly as a younger coach might.
We’re not picking on Hamilton here. Jay Wright got fed up with it and retired at Villanova; Mike Krzyzewski cited talent acquisition as a driving force in his decision to retire.
Some coaches seem to adapt quickly. Take Miami’s Jim Larrañaga, who has adapted well to the new environment (but on the other hand, he has had NIL sugar daddy John Ruiz - but that may not last much longer).
So Hamilton has had some real challenges and yes, he's not getting any younger. Despite all of that, while the record is middling, Florida State has been competitive. The ‘Noles had a four-game losing streak early in the season, losing to Georgia by two, UNC by eight and SMU by nine (South Florida won by 16). FSU lost to Clemson by nine, UNC again by seven, Virginia by four and Virginia Tech by eight.
The talent level is probably not as high as it has been in recent years, but Hamilton has enough to return to his traditionally deep rotation with 11 players getting double figure minutes. Fletcher was until he was injured.
Hamilton traditionally likes to shuttle players in and out to keep pressure on the opponent. Normally he likes to have a number of run-jump athletes, a passable point guard (they don’t grow on trees) and a collection of big men that the other guys can channel their assignments towards and who can hopefully suppress their shooting percentages.
It has worked reasonably well over the years and certainly the formula has given Duke trouble.
However, he doesn’t have the 7-0 space eaters he usually has. Naheem McLeod, 7-4, transferred to Syracuse. Baba Miller is 6-11 but he’s not a post player. Gainey, Waka Mbatch, Cam Corhen and Taylor Bol Bowen are all 6-10, but Mbatch doesn't really play. Corhen gets minutes, averaging 18.4 and Gainey gets somewhat less at 11.2, while Bol Bowen picks up 10.7. De’Ante Green, 6-9, gets 14.3 minutes a night.
You might think: well, that’s a lot of bigs and you’d be right. But for Hamilton, big guys have one basic job: to gum up the inside and drive down percentages. Then your more athletic defenders can wear the other guys down as they shuttle in and out.
The downsides to Hamilton’s approach are the big men are usually stiffs and not very productive and it’s hard for anyone to really stand out offensively because of the constant subs. But Hamilton is a border-line Hall of Fame candidate so, broadly speaking, it works.
Darin Green, Jamir Watkins, Baba Miller, Primo Spear and Jamil Warley are getting the most minutes. Green, a 6-5 senior, is putting up 11.8 ppg and getting three boards.
Watkins is having an outstanding year so far, with 14.5 ppg, 5.8 rebounds, 2.8 assist and 1.8 steals.
Miller has not yet lived up to the hype that arrived with him when he came from Spain. Be that as it may, he has talent. That said, he was allegedly a good shooter in Europe and so far he hasn't been at Florida State. Part of that may have been that he was injured last year and also had NCAA issues, but so far this year, he’s shooting just 49.1 percent from the foul line. Obviously no one is guarding you there, so that’s not a great sign. But he has time to turn that around.
Spears has been pretty productive. The 6-2 junior is getting 10.3 ppg and 2.9 assists. He’s shown a certain amount of - what’s the right word? Moxie? Toughness? Grit? He’s just a gutty player. We like him.
Warley is doing well. We were really impressed with what we saw from him against Duke as a freshman. He has obviously worked hard and it shows. He’s just a solid, athletic all-around player, and at 6-7, he has the versatility Hamilton likes.
Cam Corhen is a solid reserve. He’s getting 8.5 ppg and 3.4 rebounds. He’s strong and physical enough to bump with Kyle Filipowski inside, as is Gainey.
The other guys in the rotation - De’Ante Green, Chandler Jackson, Josh Nickleberry and Bowen - have all had their moments this year.
Given what we’ve seen of Hamilton over the years, we’d expect his team to come at Duke hard and at times, that’s been tough for the Blue Devils to respond to. As Scott pointed out recently, one of Jon Scheyer’s goals is to have an older team and since he only inherited two players from Mike Krzyzewski, that’s going to take a while.
Duke can win this game and indeed will be favored, but a few things have to happen for the Blue Devils to prevail. First, they need to play with a certain level of toughness and not back down or let a rowdy road crowd get to them. Second, they need to minimize turnovers. Third, they need to rebound well and fourth, if they do those things and hit their threes, it will make life very difficult for Florida State.
We’ve seen some wonderful basketball lately from Mark Mitchell, who has taken his game to a different level, and Jared McCain. Earlier we called him a sort of mix between Kobe Bryant and Jose Alvarado. We weren't comparing talent but rather skill sets and attitudes. Like Bryant, McCain is a worker. He really puts his time in, on and off the court. And like Alvarado, he’s just relentless. He pops up when you don’t expect him to and does things - like back-to-back double-figure rebound games - that most 6-3 guards can’t. He’s turning into a wonderful player, a candidate for ACC Rookie of the Year and also showing an instinct for the clutch play. He’s really fun.
Filipowski was vastly better against Wake Forest than he was against Notre Dame. If he can stay out of foul trouble - and we must say he’s gotten much better this year about not making foolish fouls - he’s got a chance at a big game here. Florida State will probably have to help out a lot on him which leaves other guys open obviously and Filipowski knows how to move the ball around.
Tyrese Proctor took a serious blow to the head against Wake and it clearly bothered him. Yet he came back out for the second half when he thought he was surely done for the night. That was admirably tough.
That said, we’d love to see him get his swagger back.
As a senior, it’s nice to say you basically know what to expect from Jeremy Roach. He’s gotten really good at getting in the lane and shooting over the bigs - that would be a lot tougher if 7-4 McLeod had stuck around - and he’s been particularly reliable when the team needs a critical basket or stop.
This seems like the kind of game where Ryan Young could surprise you and it may be tailor-made for Caleb Foster. It also won’t surprise us if Jaylen Blakes gets in and does what he does best, which is to cause chaos.
We’ll add links as we find them.