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2024

Severe weather season is less than two weeks away

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AUSTIN (KXAN) — As we wrap up a mostly calm month of weather this February, remember that severe weather season in Central Texas begins March 1.

Based Central Texas’ history, the risk for severe weather starts to rise until the season peaks in May.

With each week, the threat of severe weather increases in frequency and usually intensity. The peak of severe weather season is typically in May. By June, there’s usually a quick drop off of severe weather as we head into the drier and hotter summer months.

Severe weather season in Central Texas

Severe weather of all kinds is most frequent from March-June with the possibilities of hail, flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes.

Severe weather season through time

The Storm Prediction Center tracks severe weather events and has created these maps to show the probability of severe weather (wind, hail or tornadoes) occurrences through time based on climatology.

March 4 probability of severe weather based on climatology
March 18 probability of severe weather based on climatology
April 1 probability of severe weather based on climatology
April 15 probability of severe weather based on climatology
April 29 probability of severe weather based on climatology
May 13 probability of severe weather based on climatology
May 27 probability of severe weather based on climatology
June 10 probability of severe weather based on climatology
June 24 probability of severe weather based on climatology

Hail, wind and tornado season

May is peak severe weather season in Central Texas, but the threat for hail, wind or tornadoes peaks at different times during the month.

The risk of damaging hail peaks early in May.

Large hail probability based on climatology

The tornado risk peaks around mid May.

Tornado probability based on climatology

Whereas the damaging wind risk peaks toward the end of May.

Damaging wind probability based on climatology

Don’t forget about the flash flood risk

Flash flooding isn’t considered a “mode of severe weather,” but it is responsible for deaths every year.

Flash flooding occurs most frequently during our severe weather season, but can happen year round. May is usually our wettest month of the year and averages more than 5 inches for the month. Much of that rain can come hard and fast causing conditions to change quickly.

Central Texas is considered part of “Flash Flood Alley” and this map from the Weather Prediction Center shows why.

NOAA/WPC Heatmap of Deadly U.S. Flooding 2006-2020

Remember, it is your responsibility to have a way to be informed about severe weather, whether you're travelling or at home. The KXAN First Warning Weather App can be a valuable tool to help make that happens.

In severe storms, inside a sturdy building is usually the best place to be. In flash flooding, never drive through flooded streets and "turn around, don't drown."




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