‘Bob Marley: One Love’ Box Office Triumph Shows the Power of Its Subject’s Legacy | Analysis

Paramount’s “Bob Marley: One Love” has given the box office some much-needed relief, drawing out fans of the reggae music legend across demographics to earn an estimated $51 million over its first six days in domestic release.

“When a film we release continues to break every estimate we set for it over several days, that’s when we know we have something truly special,” Paramount’s domestic distribution president Chris Aronson told TheWrap, noting how the $70 million budgeted film’s pre-release projections topped out at $35 million over six days. “It’s a testament to how enduring Bob Marley’s legacy has been to generations of fans all around the world.” 

That success in attracting fans of a music icon draws some interesting comparisons to another recent hit music biopic: Warner Bros.’ “Elvis,” a film that catapulted the career of Austin Butler and grossed $151 million at the domestic box office in the summer of 2022.

While “Bob Marley: One Love” has a path to matching that amount, its estimated Fri.-Mon. total of $33.3 million is in the same neighborhood as the $31.2 million 3-day opening of “Elvis.” Not every music biopic is successful — the Whitney Houston biopic “I Wanna Dance With Somebody” flopped last year — but the right mix of musician, release date and marketing can make the genre a reliable moneymaker for studios and theaters alike.

Valentine’s Day launch

“Bob Marley: One Love” wasn’t initially supposed to hit theaters on Valentine’s Day. Paramount had set the film for release on Martin Luther King Jr. weekend, but it was moved back a month to allow the musical remake of “Mean Girls” to take the January spot.

Such a move was a bit of a gamble. There have been films that have launched on Valentine’s Day when Feb. 14 falls in the middle of the week, but they’re typically romance films catering to couples looking for a night out. The record for most money grossed on a midweek Valentine’s Day by a new release belonged to the 2012 romantic drama “The Vow” with $11.5 million.

But “Bob Marley: One Love” got strong turnout from both the dating crowd and Marley’s fans on Wednesday, passing “The Vow” with a $14 million start. On top of that, audiences gave the film an A on CinemaScore, giving the film a chance to overcome the mixed reviews it received from critics and build momentum heading into Presidents’ Day weekend.

“One Love” also entered the box office in a considerably different landscape than “Elvis” and other successful music biopics. While “Elvis” rode momentum from a strong summer season led by “Top Gun: Maverick,” “One Love” came after three weeks where few films entered the market and none gained any serious traction.

“The Wednesday release strategy isn’t always used to great effect. Sometimes it just stretches the 3-day opening audience across five days. But this was a case where the midweek release actually grew the audience and perhaps expanded awareness because the core audience reacted so strongly,” said Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian.

No Stars Required

When a music biopic is based on an artist with a large enough fanbase, one that has endured even if the artist has been dead for decades, it can give that biopic the freedom of not needing a recognizable A-list star to market it and instead launch a rising actor to greater heights. The music itself is reason enough to turn out, especially if the trailers promise a soundtrack full of beloved hits. That was the case with Austin Butler in “Elvis” and Rami Malek in his Oscar-winning turn as Freddie Mercury in “Bohemian Rhapsody.”

That may prove to be the case once again for Kingsley Ben-Adir, who plays Bob Marley in “One Love.” While the actor has certainly turned heads with roles like Malcolm X in “One Night in Miami…,” a villain in the Marvel series “Secret Invasion” and one of the Kens in “Barbie,” “One Love” marks his first major leading role in a Hollywood movie.

That “One Love” was able to slowly increase its weekend estimates as Presidents’ Day weekend has carried on shows that the film is continuing to find a foothold, drawing in Marley’s fans thanks to the legacy his music has built in the four decades since his death while possibly bringing in moviegoers who have heard the buzz from those fans. We’ll see in the coming days how far that word-of-mouth can reach.

What lies ahead

Granted, “Bob Marley: One Love” doesn’t have much time as the top offering in theaters. It will have one more weekend atop the charts before Warner Bros./Legendary’s “Dune: Part Two” arrives with likely strong reviews from critics and four-quadrant interest.

But if “Marley” can sustain enough general audience attention to last into March as an inspirational, crowd-pleasing alternative to the intense action of “Dune,” it will be good news not only for Paramount but for exhibitors who need both robust opening weekend and holdover returns from multiple films to fully break the winter slump the box office has found itself in.

One sign of hope that “Marley” can do just that is its demographics. It would be expected that a ’70s reggae icon like Bob Marley would draw strong turnout from moviegoers over the age of 35, similar to how “Elvis” skewed towards older audiences during its run. Instead, “One Love” drew 23% of its opening weekend audience from moviegoers 18-24, much higher than expected and a sign of how the musician has truly become a timeless icon. Ethnicity turnout was also fairly even at 37% White, 31% Black and 25% Latino.

How close “One Love” can get to what “Elvis” grossed will depend on how well it can continue to draw in moviegoers from all of the demos it brought in this weekend, even with tentpoles like “Dune” and “Kung Fu Panda 4” lying ahead. If it legs out, it will be another mid-budget success for Paramount after “Mean Girls” shed its streaming-exclusive status and grossed $100 million worldwide against a $36 million budget.

In the year ahead, more music biopics are on the horizon. Focus Features will hope to win over fans of the late Amy Winehouse with “Back to Black,” which stars Marisa Abela as the British singer-songwriter. Then there’s “Michael,” Lionsgate and Antoine Fuqua’s biopic of Michael Jackson with the King of Pop being played by his nephew, Jaafar. Due out in 2025, it’s quite likely that Jackson’s immense fanbase will turnout and give “Michael” a chance to be one of next year’s highest grossing films.

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