Men’s Bracket Watch: Clarity on Big East Bubble, Top Seed Flips

The NCAA tournament tips off four weeks from today. Hard to believe as that may be, opportunities are dwindling for teams to earn their spot in the Big Dance. This past weekend provided some much-needed clarity in the form of the NCAA selection committee’s top 16 reveal, but those rankings are already outdated after a busy two days of games.

Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s updated projected field, plus notes on what we learned (and what has changed) from the committee’s first look.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

Seton Hall Pirates
Texas A&M Aggies
Boise State Broncos
Nevada Wolf Pack

Last Four In:

Butler Bulldogs
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Providence Friars

First Four Out:

Cincinnati Bearcats
Ole Miss Rebels
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Utah Utes

Next Four Out:

Pittsburgh Panthers
Villanova Wildcats
Indiana State Sycamores
James Madison Dukes

It was a very good week of results for sorting out the Big East bubble. The St. John’s Red Storm lost to Seton Hall and Providence, knocking Rick Pitino’s team to just 14–12 and well onto the periphery of the bubble. The Red Storm should finish strong thanks to three games against the DePaul Blue Demons and Georgetown Hoyas in their final five contests, but it’s a serious uphill battle ahead for them. Meanwhile, Seton Hall moves relatively comfortably into the field (at least for now) while Providence also sneaks in as the last team in the projected bracket.

The worst week for a bubble team anywhere was that of Indiana State, as the Sycamores dropped two games (including a ghastly Quad 4 loss to the Illinois State Redbirds) to fall out of the projected field entirely. Indiana State still has a great chance of winning the Missouri Valley tournament, but it’s going to be hard to find a way to put the Sycamores in the field should they slip up in that event.

Related: Forde Minutes: Emotions Run High and Don’t Mess With NCAA Tournament

* indicates a projected automatic bid

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Merrimack Warriors*/Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 BYU Cougars vs. No. 9 Northwestern Wildcats
No. 5 Dayton Flyers* vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide* vs. No. 14 College of Charleston Cougars*
No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 10 Virginia Cavaliers
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders*

Saturday’s top 16 reveal had UConn behind the Purdue Boilermakers for the No. 1 overall seed, but the combination of the Huskies blowing out the Marquette Golden Eagles later that day and Purdue falling to the Ohio State Buckeyes on Sunday caused me to flip the two teams. There’s not a ton of significance to that given both teams have different desired regional paths, but it is notable given the Huskies’ pursuit of a second straight championship. Dan Hurley has done a phenomenal job.

South Carolina getting blown out by the Auburn Tigers on the road was one thing; losing at home to the LSU Tigers was another. Those two results make it a lot easier to rank the Gamecocks closer to their middling predictive metrics than their once-strong résumé had lifted them. South Carolina’s big wins (vs. the Kentucky Wildcats and at the Tennessee Volunteers) should keep them in regardless of how they finish, but the Gamecocks could trend closer to the dreaded 8-vs.-9 game without a bounce back.

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 North Dakota Fighting Hawks*/Grambling Tigers*
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 Appalachian State Mountaineers*
No. 4 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 6 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 11 Providence Friars/Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 3 Baylor Bears vs. No. 14 High Point Panthers*
No. 7 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington Eagles*

One other move I made compared to the committee’s top 16 was flipping Wisconsin (the committee’s No. 16) with Creighton, a team listed as having been in consideration. The explanation here is straightforward: Creighton won a Quad 1 game at Butler, while Wisconsin fell for the fifth time in six tries at the Iowa Hawkeyes. The seed floor is very high for the Badgers given their current résumé, but they’re clearly not playing their best basketball at the moment.

The San Diego State Aztecs’ inclusion in the top 16 is a good sign for Colorado State and the Mountain West as a whole. The Rams don’t have quite as good of a résumé as the Aztecs, but the two are fairly comparable: CSU has four Quad 1 wins, an 8–5 record against the top two quadrants and just one loss outside of Quad 1. With a strong finish, a No. 5 or even potentially No. 4 seed may not be out of the question for Niko Medved’s team.

Related: Purdue Gets Selection Committee Nod as Men’s Top Seed Over Houston

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*
No. 8 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 9 Mississippi State Bulldogs
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 11 Nevada Wolf Pack
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies*
No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 10 Boise State Broncos
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Morehead State Eagles*

The curious case of Auburn continues after the Tigers’ surprising home loss to Kentucky. That performance demonstrated the type of inconsistency that has plagued them this season, the reason why the Tigers haven’t climbed further up the seed list despite elite metrics. Three road games in their next four games await Bruce Pearl’s team.

Just three coaches since World War II have taken Washington State to the NCAA tournament: George Raveling, Kelvin Sampson and Tony Bennett. All of whom went on to have remarkable success at future stops. Kyle Smith could join that club soon with the group he has assembled this season in Pullman, Wash., with the Cougars now approaching lock status. Without a horrific finish, Wazzu should go dancing, a remarkable accomplishment given the moribund program’s history.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels*
No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 9 Texas Longhorns
No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Drake Bulldogs*
No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs* vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs/Butler Bulldogs
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 Florida Atlantic Owls vs. No. 10 Texas A&M Aggies
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 15 Sam Houston State Bearkats*

The other side of that aforementioned Auburn loss was a massive rise back up the seed list for Kentucky, bouncing back with an elite win after at one time trending toward the bubble conversation. The Wildcats are now our last No. 5 seed and have new life in their pursuit of a protected seed.

Iowa State wasn’t given much benefit of the doubt in the top 16 reveal despite a gaudy Big 12 record. The Cyclones stay on the No. 3 line after losing Monday to Houston, and given the way the committee seemingly responded to Iowa State’s poor nonconference schedule, this may be as high as the ’Clones can climb. If nothing else, the hopes of pushing for a No. 1 seed seem dashed.