Expressway traffic flow prediction based on MF-TAN and STSA

by Xi Zhang, Qiang Ren, Ying Zhang, Chunlian Quan, Shuang Guo, Fangwei Li

Highly accurate traffic flow prediction is essential for effectively managing traffic congestion, providing real-time travel advice, and reducing travel costs. However, traditional traffic flow prediction models often fail to fully consider the correlation and periodicity among traffic state data and rely on static network topology graphs. To solve this problem, this paper proposes a expressway traffic flow prediction model based on multi-feature spatial-temporal adaptive periodic fused graph convolutional network (MFSTAPFGCN). First, we make fine preprocessing of the raw data to construct a complete and accurate dataset. Second, by deeply investigating the correlation properties among section speed, traffic flow, and section saturation rate, we incorporate these features into a multi-feature temporal attention mechanism in order to dynamically model the correlation of traffic flow in different time periods. Next, we adopt a spatial-temporal adaptive fusion graph convolutional network to capture the daily cycle similarity and potential spatial-temporal dependence of traffic flow data. Finally, the superiority of the proposed MFSTAPFGCN model over the traditional baseline model is verified through comparative experiments on real Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) gantry transaction data, and the effectiveness of each module is demonstrated through ablation experiments.