Will ‘Poor Things’ match Oscar wins for Best Actress and Best Makeup and Hairstyling?
There has been a linking trend at the Oscars, particularly over the last six years, between Best Actor/Actress and Best Makeup and Hairstyling and how one category can sway the other. This connection started to appear in 2007 when the makeup win for “Le Vie en Rose” forecasted a shocking triumph for the film’s star Marion Cotillard over veteran Julie Christie (“Away From Her”). Four years later, Meryl Streep won her third Oscar for “The Iron Lady” in a close race with Viola Davis (“The Help”) that was supported by the biopic’s victory for its prosthetics. While this tie-in would happen every few years including for 2013 with “Dallas Buyers Club,” it has become more common recently and used to influence predictions in both categories. This year we have two high-profile contenders that could continue the trend: “Poor Things” (led by Emma Stone) and “Maestro” (led by Bradley Cooper). Even though it is currently not predicted at Gold Derby for either of these movies to snatch both categories, there may be a stronger case for “Poor Things.”
The makeup/lead acting category association became prominent starting in 2017 when “Darkest Hour” came away with only those two wins, including for Gary Oldman’s portrayal as Winston Churchill. The following three years had “Vice,” “Bombshell” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” secure trophies for their makeup, while their leading stars Christian Bale, Charlize Theron, Chadwick Boseman and Davis were in serious contention for wins in their respective categories, though none of them were ultimately able to take home the gold.
For 2021, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” was only nominated in those two categories, leaving many uncertain as to whether it had enough strength to win both, given the years prior, but it managed to pull it off, also giving Jessica Chastain her first win as the title character in Best Actress, which was a head-scratching category. Last year’s makeup category was also a determining factor for Best Actor as it was between Austin Butler (“Elvis”) and Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”). Many pundits had the former film as it had more support with the academy and had that biopic genre that befitted four of the last five winners, but “The Whale” surprised with a win for Best Makeup and Hairstyling for the prosthetics on Fraser, all but confirming that he was about to win his first Oscar later in the night.
The biopic factor was a major reason why early in the season, many presumed that the overdue Bradley Cooper would prevail with “Maestro” portraying Leonard Bernstein, depicting his decades-long career and using heavy prosthetics for his older age, something the academy loves to reward. And while “Maestro” can still win Best Makeup and Hairstyling, currently in first with 16/5 odds and the support of 2,961 users in the combined Gold Derby odds, Cooper has fallen down to third in Best Actor with 9/2 odds, tied with Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) and Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), behind Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) and Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”), both tied at 69/20, so it looks unlikely that if there would be a corresponding match, it would go to “Maestro.”
“Poor Things,” on the other hand, is not far behind “Maestro” in Best Makeup in Hairstyling, currently in second with 37/10 odds and 1,292 users predicting it for the win. But what makes it seem more likely is the Best Actress race, where Emma Stone seems to be on a steady path to cruise to her second Oscar win, now in first place in the combined Gold Derby odds with 17/5 and 2,611 users. Even though she is in tight with Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) – who has the support of 2,066 users and 18/5 odds – Gladstone missed out on a key BAFTA nomination and lost to Stone at the Critics Choice Awards (where “Maestro” also lost the makeup category). Not to mention the fact that “Poor Things” has 11 nominations – the second most behind “Oppenheimer” – and “Killers of the Flower Moon” missed key categories like Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay, showing waning overall support. A win for “Poor Things” in Best Makeup and Hairstyling could be a bigger bellwether for what’s to come in what is currently an undetermined Best Actress race, and continue the trend of the strong connection between the two categories.
The precursors to look out for are the Make-Up Artists and Hair Stylists Guild Awards (MUAHS), where “Maestro” and “Poor Things” are cited for Best Period and/or Character Make-Up and Best Special Make-Up Effects (the former also nominated in Best Period Hair Styling and/or Character Hair Styling). If one film ends up triumphing in both categories, that could be a hint of what’s to come, as well as the acting results of the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the British voting bloc of the BAFTA Film Awards for categories in acting and makeup and hairstyling, where both films are recognized.
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