Independent Spirit Awards: Our official odds in all 12 film categories

The 39th Independent Spirit Awards will stream live on Film Independent and IMDb’s YouTube channels on Sunday, February 25. Scroll down to see our official odds in all 12 film categories (with our predicted winners highlighted in gold) and be sure to make or update your own predictions while there’s still time.

Heading into the ceremony, which will be hosted by comic actress Aidy Bryant, “American Fiction,” “May December,” and “Past Lives” stand as the year’s nominations leaders with five apiece. They will all face off in the top category of Best Picture, along with “Passages” (four total bids), “All of Us Strangers” (three), and “We Grown Now” (three).

Last year’s Spirit Awards previewed the Oscars success of “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” which left both ceremonies with seven wins including Best Picture. Over the years, only eight recipients of the academy’s highest honor have first clinched the corresponding Spirit Award, beginning with “Platoon” in 1987. Following a full quarter century of incongruence, the two organizations have lately agreed more often than not, as evidenced by the dual victories of “The Artist” (2012), “12 Years a Slave” (2014), “Birdman” (2015), “Spotlight” (2016), “Moonlight” (2017), and “Nomadland” (2021).

Our exclusive Independent Spirit Awards odds are based on the collective predictions of our Experts, Editors, and Users, a select few of whom belong to our Top 24 and/or All-Star Top 24. As of now, more than 2,000 total readers have logged their picks for this event.

PREDICTED TOTALS BY FILM
“Past Lives” – 4
“The Holdovers” – 3
“Anatomy of a Fall” – 1
“Four Daughters” – 1
“How to Blow Up a Pipeline” – 1
“May December” – 1
“A Thousand and One” – 1

Best Picture
“Past Lives” – 10/3
“American Fiction” – 4/1
“May December” – 5/1
“All of Us Strangers” – 11/2
“Passages” – 7/1
“We Grown Now” – 15/2

Best Director
Celine Song, “Past Lives” – 31/10
Todd Haynes, “May December” – 19/5
Andrew Haigh, “All of Us Strangers” – 4/1
Ira Sachs, “Passages” – 9/2
William Oldroyd, “Eileen” – 9/2

Best Lead Performance
Greta Lee, “Past Lives” – 13/2
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction” – 7/1
Andrew Scott, “All of Us Strangers” – 15/2
Natalie Portman, “May December” – 8/1
Teyana Taylor, “A Thousand and One” – 9/1
Teo Yoo, “Past Lives” – 9/1
Franz Rogowski, “Passages” – 21/2
Jessica Chastain, “Memory” – 11/1
Trace Lysette, “Monica” – 12/1
Judy Reyes, “Birth/Rebirth” – 15/1

Best Supporting Performance
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” – 13/2
Charles Melton, “May December” – 13/2
Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction” – 8/1
Glenn Howerton, “BlackBerry” – 8/1
Erika Alexander, “American Fiction” – 9/1
Ben Whishaw, “Passages” – 9/1
Noah Galvin, “Theater Camp” – 21/2
Anne Hathaway, “Eileen” – 11/1
Marin Ireland, “Eileen” – 13/1
Catalina Saavedra, “Rotting in the Sun” – 14/1

Best Breakthrough Performance
Dominic Sessa, “The Holdovers” – 3/1
Marshawn Lynch, “Bottoms” – 4/1
Tia Nomore, “Earth Mama” – 9/2
Atibon Nazaire, “Mountains” – 9/2
Anaita Wali Zada, “Fremont” – 9/2

Best Screenplay
”Past Lives” – 10/3
“American Fiction” – 18/5
“The Holdovers” – 4/1
“Bottoms” – 9/2
“Birth/Rebirth” – 5/1

Best First Feature
”A Thousand and One” – 31/10
“All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt” – 19/5
“Earth Mama” – 9/2
“Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” – 9/2
“Upon Entry” – 9/2

Best First Screenplay
”May December” – 3/1
“Theater Camp” – 39/10
“Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” – 9/2
“Upon Entry” – 9/2
“The Starling Girl” – 9/2

Best Documentary
”Four Daughters” – 31/10
“Kokomo City” – 39/10
“The Mother of All Lies” – 4/1
“Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project” – 9/2
“Bye Bye Tiberias” – 9/2

Best International Film
”Anatomy of a Fall” – 31/10
“The Zone of Interest” – 19/5
“Godland” – 9/2
“Totem” – 9/2
“Mami Wata” – 9/2

Best Cinematography
”The Holdovers” – 82/25
“All Dirt Roads Taste of Salt” – 18/5
“Monica” – 9/2
“We Grown Now” – 9/2
“Chronicles of a Wandering Saint” – 9/2

Best Editing
”How to Blow Up a Pipeline” – 31/10
“We Grown Now” – 39/10
“Theater Camp” – 4/1
“Rotting in the Sun” – 9/2
“Upon Entry” – 9/2

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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