SAG Awards TV editors slugfest: ‘Succession,’ ‘Beef’ and ‘The Bear’ (oh my!) are poised to dominate [WATCH]
While there remains plenty of suspense surrounding the SAG Awards film categories at the ceremony taking place at the Shrine Auditorium & Expo Hall this Saturday at 5 p.m. PST/8 p.m. EST (streaming over Netflix), there is decidedly less drama when it comes to the TV categories. It’s simply a fact. At least, this is the way Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Daniel Montgomery and Marcus James Dixon, news and features editor Ray Richmond and encyclopedic awards expert extraordinaire Tariq Khan saw it during their SAG Awards TV category predictions slugfest this week. The consensus is that “Succession” will sweep the three TV drama categories, “The Bear” the three comedy categories and “Beef” the limited series/TV pair. There may be some non-“Bear” wiggle room in at least one category. More on that in a moment. Watch the editors’ colorful discussion above.
“I think SAG Awards for television is one of the laziest voting bodies,” declares Davidson in pointing to the utter repetitious predictability of the awards. “For drama, the obvious choices are ‘Succession’ across the board.” That would mean “Succession” winning for Best TV Drama Ensemble, Kieran Culkin or Matthew Macfadyen for Best TV Drama Actor, and Sarah Snook for TV Drama Actress. This would allow the series, Culkin and Snook a clean sweep of the Emmys, Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards and SAGs. (Macfadyen lost at the Critics Choice but won everywhere else, and he and Culkin both took home Emmys in different categories.)
“Yeah, ‘Succession’ wins ensemble pretty easily I think,” Montgomery believes, “and I’ve got Kieran for actor. I’ve been predicting Pedro Pascal (for “The Last of Us”), and I’ve been getting burned every time. I’m going with Sarah Snook too, but she may be vulnerable. She’s not necessarily a sure thing.” Agreeing with that assessment is Khan, who warns, “Watch out for Jennifer Aniston (for “The Morning Show”). She’s a television icon. She’s beloved. People still watch ‘Friends.’ And keep in mind the death of Matthew Perry. That’s still on SAG voters’ minds, along with the chance to honor Jennifer and see her honor Matthew Perry. That’s a moment voters may not be able to resist.”
“I agree Jennifer is right in this race,” Davidson adds. “They also love Billy Crudup (from “The Morning Show”).
Moving over to comedy, all five men have “The Bear” winning Best Comedy Ensemble after losing to “Abbott Elementary” last year. The show just won the Emmy for Best Comedy Series for its first season, and there is general agreement that its second season is superior. “All anyone has to do is see the ‘Fishes’ episode from Season 2 to convince them, even though we’re all still pretending this show is a comedy. And this will be Jeremy Allen White’s second straight win for comedy actor. And Ayo Edebiri is winning for comedy actress. She’s on a binge here and doesn’t seem to be able to lose.”
No one thinks “The Bear” and its performers has any serious contenders in its trio of categories. “I’m picking it to win all three,” predicts Dixon. Chimes Khan: “I actually think a lot of SAG voters don’t watch all the shows and ‘The Bear’ is just so popular, even voters that don’t watch it know about it. So I think it’s just an easy name check across the board.” “I think ‘The Bear’ wins all of them,” says Davidson, “In fact, I think ‘The Bear’ is not losing anything for a while. I don’t think Jeremy Allen White has lost a nomination for it since that show started.”
In terms of the limited/movie acting categories, Dixon asks, “Do we all have Steven Yeun and Ali Wong winning?” The answer is yes. The one category where “The Beef” wasn’t seen as winning is TV Stunt Ensemble, where the consensus is that “The Last of Us” is seen as having a great chance to snag the prize. “This is the only place where I’m not predicting a complete sweep for everything,” Montgomery asserts. “I’m going with ‘The Last of Us’ here. They loved the show enough to nominate it for Best Drama Ensemble.”
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