Why ‘The Morning Show’ has its best shot yet at earning a drama series Emmy nomination

Bad news may have dominated the headlines in Season 3 of “The Morning Show,” but the Apple TV+ drama could be in for some good news at the upcoming Emmys. After missing for its first two seasons, the show is finally expected to land a Best Drama Series nomination, as it sits in second place in our early odds behind only “The Crown.”

This isn’t the first time “The Morning Show” has been in our predicted drama series lineup. Hot on the heels of a buzzy first season that accrued multiple nominations at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild Awards, not to mention an unexpected victory for Jennifer Aniston at the latter, the show ranked in the top five in our odds for the 2020 Emmys. But despite racking up eight bids overall, including five for acting — the second most for any drama series that year, following “Succession’s” nine — and one for directing, it was shut out of series in favor of seven returning nominees and a first-season show with broader support in 15-time nominee “The Mandalorian.”

“The Morning Show” was not among our forecasted drama series nominees for its second season in 2022, but it probably came close to making the cut yet again. In addition to building on its Season 1 nomination totals at both the Globes and SAG Awards, the show broke into several top guilds in the lead-up to the Emmys, including the Producers and Writers Guild of America Awards. But hurt by lukewarm audience reception for its sophomore installment and a competitive drama series field, it wound up with just three noms in total, all of which were for acting (Reese Witherspoon in lead actress, Billy Crudup in supporting actor and Marcia Gay Harden in guest actress).

SEE Mimi Leder (‘The Morning Show’ director/producer): ‘You take those big swings and they’re fun’

Now, the stars have seemingly aligned for it to break through in series. With “The Crown” being the only previous nominee that is guaranteed to be eligible, the drama series field has completely emptied out. While you can count on freshmen series to try to take advantage of these openings, remember that Emmy voters oftentimes default to familiar titles in wide-open races. “The Morning Show” isn’t the only show besides “The Crown” in our top eight that fits that description — “The Gilded Age” (No. 3) and “Loki” (No. 6) are also former nominees — but it’s the only one that’s already been cited above the line.

What’s more, the show is entering the Emmy race following its most successful precursor run to date. Not only has it retained its top mentions at the Golden Globe, SAG and PGA Awards, but it’s also turned up at a handful of new guilds — including the Costume Designers and Make-Up Artists and Hairstylist Guild Awards, winning contemporary hair styling at the latter — and cracked the top 10 at the American Film Institute for the first time. But perhaps most notable is that it led Critics Choice Award nominations with a total of six, including one for drama series, after picking up just two bids across its first two seasons. Both were for Crudup, who prevailed for the first season in 2020 and won again this year, beating reigning Golden Globe and Emmy champ Matthew Macfadyen (“Succession”).

So it’s safe to say the third time really might be the charm for “The Morning Show.” And if it is, don’t be surprised if it just goes all the way.

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