Business economists expect a soft landing in 2024

The National Association for Business Economics updates its forecast every quarter and — compared to what was predicted at the end of last year — the group’s new February outlook calls for higher economic growth, double the job growth and lower unemployment.

The association upped its growth projections for this year based on the strength of consumer spending, business and residential investment, and government outlays on infrastructure.

University of Arkansas economist Mervin Jebaraj, who chairs the survey panel, says use of the word “recession” is fading. 

“Over the past quarters, the prospects for a recession seem to get smaller, prospects for a soft landing larger. So now, three-quarters of our panelists expect a soft landing,” he said.

Economist Robert Frick at Navy Federal Credit Union agrees the economy’s looking strong for 2024: “Employment’s good. Spending’s good.”

But when he meets with frontline Credit Union employees who deal with cash-strapped members, he hears a different story.

“A lot of lower-income people are really suffering from inflation,” he said. “There’s going to be a lot of defaults this year.”

Mostly, he predicts, that’ll be defaults on high-interest credit cards and car loans.