Newsom faces another recall campaign

Critics have attempted to recall him six previous times since he took office in 2019.

Gov. Gavin Newsom handily defeated an attempt to recall him from office in 2021, but his critics haven’t given up — on Monday they launched a new effort to remove him.

“Governor Newsom has abandoned the state to advance his presidential ambitions, leaving behind a $68 billion budget deficit and a public safety, immigration and education crisis,” said Rescue California.

Newsom hardly seemed worried Monday and used it as an opportunity to raise funds. Foes have attempted to recall him six previous times since he took office in 2019. Five of those failed to qualify for the ballot. The one that qualified led to a Sept. 14, 2021, recall election that the state’s voters rejected 62% to 38%.

“Earlier today, the same Trump Republicans who led the recall effort against me in 2021 announced they are launching another recall campaign against me this year,” Newsom said in Monday’s fundraising pitch, referencing former president and 2024 presidential candidate Donald Trump. “We beat them once — handily — and we’ll do it again if we must. But I can’t do it alone.”

Attempts to recall governors aren’t unusual. Newsom’s predecessor, fellow Democrat Jerry Brown, endured five failed attempts to recall him, with none qualifying for the ballot.

Success is rare. The only California governor recalled was Democrat Gray Davis in 2003, by a 55% vote. His elected replacement, movie star Arnold Schwarzenegger, weathered seven recall attempts himself, none of which qualified for the ballot.

Recall proponents must collect signatures equal to 12% of the votes cast for governor in the most recent election, a figure of nearly 1.5 million in 2021 when the last Newsom recall qualified for the ballot.

By comparison, a statewide ballot measure requires far fewer signatures to qualify for the ballot — equal to 5% of the votes cast in the last election for governor, currently 546,651. Constitutional amendments require 8%, currently 874,641.

“It’s very difficult — intentionally difficult — to recall the governor,” said Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of politics at San Jose State University, who has coauthored two books on California elections to recall governors. “And it’s very expensive — it’ll cost millions to collect enough signatures.”

On the proposed recall campaign’s website, advocates cite the litany of problems plaguing the state — high housing costs, worsening homelessness despite billions of dollars spent to alleviate it, $3 billion worth of free health care coverage for undocumented immigrants despite a budget deficit of nearly $70 billion, and a rash of retail and violent crimes that critics link to criminal justice reforms the governor supported.

But a recall could backfire on Republicans, Gerston said.

“It may drain money from Republicans in close races for the House and legislature,” Gerston said, adding that it also could “brighten Newsom’s image” among his supporters.

Anne Dunsmore, the recall campaign’s manager, said the effort wouldn’t be a drain on Republican races and that it is largely volunteer-driven and drawing from those who supported the last Newsom recall that made the ballot.

Instead, she said, it will force Newsom, who’s been campaigning for the Proposition 1 bond measure for mental health and for Democratic candidates in other states, to spread his political cash to defend his job. She noted that the campaign collected 2.3 million signatures last time from voters frustrated with Newsom.

“We’re better prepared, we have all the resources we had last time,” Dunsmore said. “It’ll drain more money from their coffers. He’s also spread himself thin — he’s paying for Prop. 1 and campaigning for people in battleground states.”

The successful recall of Gray Davis in 2003 came as he was facing multiple crises — a budget deficit that threatened higher fees for California motorists and an imploding deregulated energy market that had led to repeated rolling blackouts.

The Newsom recall effort that qualified for the ballot in 2021 came as the governor was facing intense criticism for COVID-19 public health measures that put unpopular constraints on businesses, churches and individuals. Adding to the recall momentum, the governor dined with friends at an exclusive Napa restaurant after urging Californians to stay home, avoid gatherings and wear masks to stop the spread of the virus.

While Newsom survived it easily, Gerston noted that in politics, there’s always “things that can happen,” some “unexpected situations where suddenly there’s a scandal, something nobody expects.”