Men’s Bracket Watch: Washington State Locks in, Wake Forest Breaks Through

Butler and Utah continue recent swoons to fall out of the field while the No. 1 overall seed is still up for grabs.

Fewer than three weeks remain before we’ll have a bracket in hand for the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament. In that time, much will change: Huge late-season clashes and conference tournament action will play a part in who ends up dancing on Selection Sunday. However, each week brings us more and more clarity on how the field of 68 will look. For instance, the Washington State Cougars locked themselves into the field last week by winning at the Arizona Wildcats, while other teams like the Butler Bulldogs and Utah Utes continued recent swoons to knock themselves out of the picture.

Here’s a look at where things stand in Sports Illustrated’s latest projection.

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes:

Nevada Wolf Pack
Michigan State Spartans
Seton Hall Pirates
Providence Friars

Last Four In:

Virginia Cavaliers
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
New Mexico Lobos
Gonzaga Bulldogs

First Four Out:

Villanova Wildcats
Utah Utes
Ole Miss Rebels
Butler Bulldogs

Next Four Out:

Texas A&M Aggies
Colorado Buffaloes
James Madison Dukes
St. John’s Red Storm

Welcome to the projected field, Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons finally got the breakthrough win they needed to back up their lofty performance metrics, beating the Duke Blue Devils on Saturday afternoon in a win that pushed them into the Big Dance field, at least for now. A 3–1 finish to the regular season should have Steve Forbes’s team sitting pretty, though 2–2 wouldn’t be catastrophic.

In a bad weekend overall for bubble teams, no team had a worse go than New Mexico, which lost a ghastly Quad 4 home game to the Air Force Falcons to seriously jeopardize the Lobos’ NCAA tournament hopes. It doesn’t knock them out just yet, but the margin of error is now incredibly slim, especially given New Mexico’s entire résumé has been built on the work it has done in league play. The Lobos would be advised to win at either the Boise State Broncos or Utah State Aggies down the stretch to secure a bid.

Related: Forde Minutes: Closer Look at Bubble Teams and Selection Committee Questions

* indicates a projected automatic qualifier

Midwest Region

No. 1 Purdue Boilermakers* vs. No. 16 Grambling State Tigers*/Merrimack Warriors*
No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners vs. No. 9 Boise State Broncos
No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 12 Princeton Tigers*
No. 4 San Diego State Aztecs vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 Indiana State Sycamores*
No. 3 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 14 Charleston Cougars*
No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks vs. No. 10 Nevada Wolf Pack
No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington Eagles*

The UConn Huskies’ stay at No. 1 overall is short-lived, with Purdue reasserting itself in the top spot following the Huskies’ loss to the Creighton Bluejays. The Boilermakers could add some distance between themselves and the field with a strong finish against a schedule that features games against Michigan State, the Wisconsin Badgers and Illinois Fighting Illini before conference tournament time.

Meanwhile, it’s worth zooming in on Kansas’s potential case for a No. 1 seed after the Jayhawks dominated the Texas Longhorns over the weekend. Kansas has an elite win over UConn and 12 total wins against the top two quadrants. The Jayhawks may have the best chance of anyone to usurp Arizona for the fourth and final No. 1 seed.

East Region

No. 1 UConn Huskies* vs. No. 16 Eastern Kentucky Colonels*/Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Northwestern Wildcats vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic Owls
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 Appalachian State Mountaineers*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 6 Florida Gators vs. No. 11 Grand Canyon Antelopes*
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 High Point Panthers*
No. 7 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 10 Seton Hall Pirates
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers* vs. No. 15 Sam Houston State BearKats*

Predictive metrics love Illinois, but the Illini haven’t been quite consistent enough to surge up the seed list. Last week’s road loss at the Penn State Nittany Lions wasn’t disastrous, but it did serve as a fairly effective momentum-killer for any sustained climb toward a No. 2 or 3 seed. The Illini play three Quad 1 games in their final four Big Ten games though, so the chances are there if they can take advantage.

Is Florida Atlantic safe? For now, yes. The Owls have slowly trickled down to a No. 9 seed after losing at Memphis and have a bit of a strange résumé overall, with a monster neutral court win over Arizona but two horrific losses and a few Quad 2 losses more recently have made things somewhat dicey. Winning two out of three down the stretch would do the trick, but 1–2 could see the Owls in somewhat precarious shape heading into conference tournament time.

South Region

No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Fairfield Stags*
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 12 Richmond Spiders*
No. 4 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 Washington State Cougars vs. No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers/New Mexico Lobos
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 14 Oakland Golden Grizzlies*
No. 7 Colorado State Rams vs. No. 10 Michigan State Spartans
No. 2 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 15 Morehead State Eagles*

Houston took over the No. 1 spot in the AP poll this week. For now, the Cougars stay as our third overall seed, but the gap is narrowing as the Cougars rack up wins in Big 12 play. The Cougars are a ridiculous 13–3 against the top two quadrants and own five Q1A wins, the best possible wins on the NCAA’s team sheets. Like with UConn vs. Purdue, for geographic purposes Houston is happy to land in the South and should end up there regardless of where on the overall seed list they land. Still, it would be quite the achievement to land as No. 1 overall in the program’s first year in the Big 12.

Michigan State is officially back into the danger zone after consecutive home losses to the Iowa Hawkeyes and Ohio State Buckeyes. At 17–11, the Spartans’ record is generally underwhelming, and they’ve beaten just two surefire NCAA tournament teams. Tom Izzo’s NCAA tournament streak is in some jeopardy, though it would take a rough finish to land outside the field altogether.

West Region

No. 1 Arizona Wildcats* vs. No. 16 South Dakota State Jackrabbits*
No. 8 Utah State Aggies* vs. No. 9 Texas Longhorns
No. 5 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 12 South Florida Bulls*
No. 4 Baylor Bears vs. No. 13 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 6 Dayton Flyers vs. No. 11 Wake Forest Demon Deacons/Gonzaga Bulldogs
No. 3 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 14 Vermont Catamounts*
No. 7 BYU Cougars vs. No. 10 Providence Friars
No. 2 North Carolina Tar Heels* vs. No. 15 Colgate Raiders*

Creighton may have lost Sunday at St. John’s, but the Bluejays are up to a No. 3 seed after landing a top-tier win over UConn last week. There’s a lot to like here: strong metrics across the board, 12 Quad 1 and 2 wins and now a win over a likely No. 1 seed. The ceiling here is probably the No. 3 line, but either way, Creighton now looks well-positioned for a protected seed.

Texas stayed just above our true “bubble” but hasn’t quite locked up a bid just yet. The Longhorns have a pretty 17–10 overall record, but are just 6–8 in league play and accomplished nothing of substance in the nonconference. A 1–3 finish in league play could make things very interesting in Rodney Terry’s first season on the job.