2024 South Side Sox Top Prospect No. 34: Juan Carela

This live-armed righty didn’t miss a beat after moving over from the Yankees system in July

Juan Carela

Right-Handed Starting Pitcher
6´3´´
186 pounds
Age: 22
2023 High Level Winston-Salem (High-A)
Age relative to high level -2.1 years
SSS rank among all right-handed starting pitchers in the system 10
Overall 2023 stats 3-7 ⚾️ 23 games (22 starts, 1 finish) ⚾️ 115 2⁄3 IP ⚾️ 3.58 ERA ⚾️ 1.193 WHIP ⚾️ 136 K ⚾️ 43 BB

The Chicago White Sox struck a buzzer-beating deal with the New York Yankees in the final minutes of the 2023 trade deadline, shipping reliever Keynan Middleton to New York in exchange for righthander Juan Carela.

The young righty raised eyebrows as a prospect with his projectable frame and a fastball that could touch the mid-90s. In 2018, the Yankees signed Carela, then 16, for $335,000, and he made his professional debut in the Yankees system the following season.

His current arsenal features a mid-90s rising fastball, a sinker with similar velocity, a low-80s sweeping slider, a mid-80s traditional slider, and a developing changeup that shows early signs of promise, with steep downward action. He’s mixed in the occasional cutter this year as well. Given the depth of his pitch offerings, Carela has pitched almost exclusively as a starter in New York’s system, and should stick as a starter in the White Sox’s system.

Though his first two seasons Stateside were decidedly lackluster, Carela enjoyed a breakout year with the Low-A Tampa Tarpons in 2022. Across 16 appearances (14 starts) spanning 79 innings, he pitched to a career-low 2.96 ERA, fanning 110 batters for a strikeout rate of 33%. He began 2023 in High-A Hudson Valley and has produced similarly promising results despite the increase in difficulty, recording a 3.67 ERA in 83 1⁄3 innings while punching out 31% of the batters he’s faced, showing his 2022 breakout wasn’t a flash in the pan.

Out of 104 High-A pitchers with a minimum of 60 innings pitched at the time of the trade, Carela ranked fourth in strikeouts. His walk rate of 9% is tenable given his propensity for punching tickets. His K-BB%, a statistic that rewards strikeouts but dings players for excessively walking batters, is 21.9%. That figure places him in the top 10% of High-A hurlers, showing that his command has been excellent among pitchers who regularly rely on the punchout to navigate lineups.

Carela didn’t lose a step with the switch to the Chicago organization, seeing six starts for the Dash to end 2023, shaving about a third of a run off of his ERA while pitching to more contact and allowing a bit more traffic.

Carela’s Baseball Cube player ratings
Durability 80
Strikeouts 65
vs. Power 59
Hittable 59
K/BB 51
Walks 44

Carela almost surely starts 2024 in the Birmingham rotation, despite his youth. Double-A will present a challenge, but there’s no reason an arm like his can’t sidle into the Charlotte rotation by summer’s end.

[Note: The makeup of the White Sox minors changes over the long course of this project, shifting ratings. The February 3 trades with Seattle and Arizona have added three highly-rated prospects to our list, sliding players down. The list below represents our updated rankings, although the stories they link to will retain original rankings (example, No. 56 Troy Claunch originally was our No. 55 prospect).]

2024 South Side Sox Top 100 White Sox Prospects

34. Juan Carela, RHSP
35. Mason Adams, RHSP
36. Calvin Harris, C
37. Abraham Núñez, CF
38. Ronny Hernandez, C
39. Tim Elko, 1B
40. Mario Camilletti, 2B
41. Kohl Simas, RHSP
42. Shawn Goosenberg, 1B
43. Norge Vera, RHSP
44. Riley Gowens, RHSP
45. Jared Kelley, RHRP
46. Ryan Galanie, 1B
47. DJ Gladney, LF
48. Eddie Park, CF
49. Yoelqui Céspedes, CF
50. Christian Oppor, LHSP
51. Michael Turner, C
52. Tristan Stivors, RHRP
53. Caleb Freeman, RHRP
54. Jake Peppers, RHSP
55. Shane Murphy, LHRP
56. Troy Claunch, C
57. Edrick Felix, 2B
58. Gabriel Rodríguez, RHSP
59. Edgar Navarro, RHRP
60. Lucas Gordon, LHSP
61. Andrew Pérez, LHRP
62. Javier Mogollon, 2B
63. Aldrin Batista, RHSP
64. Ryan Castillo, 1B
65. Bryce Willits, 3B
66. Colby Smelley, C
67. Wes Kath, 3B
68. Alsander Womack, 2B
69. Jordan Sprinkle, SS
70. Connor McCullough, RHSP
71. Luis Rodriguez, RHRP
72. Jonah Scolaro, LHRP
73. Ben Beutel, LHRP
74. Stiven Flores, C
75. Adrian Gil, 1B
76. Yohemy Nolasco, RHRP
77. Ben Norman, LF
78. Josimar Cousín, RHSP
79. Juan Gonzalez, C
80. Chris Lanzilli, LF
81. Alex Speas, RHRP
82. Fraser Ellard, LHRP
83. Garrett Wright, RHRP
84. Duke Ellis, CF
85. Mathias LaCombe, RHRP
86. Godwin Bennett, RF
87. Rikuu Nishida, LF
88. Caden Connor, LF
89. Zach Franklin, RHRP
90. Jeremy González, LHSP
91. Jerry Burke, RHRP
92. Frankeli Arias, LHSP
93. Mikey Kane, 3B
94. Carlton Perkins, RHSP
95. Tyler Neslony, LF
96. Drew Dalquist, RHSP
97. Jason Matthews, SS
98. Jonathan Stiever, RHSP
99. Tommy Sommer, LHSP
100. Daniel González, LHRP