Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay is a nail-biter: Can ‘American Fiction’ stop ‘Oppenheimer’?

We’ve seen throughout the awards season that “Oppenheimer” is hard to beat. But there is at least one place where the film has proved vulnerable: Best Adapted Screenplay. You’d think a talky, philosophical film about the morality of science and technology would be a shoo-in for its writing if it’s such an overwhelming front-runner for Best Picture. But Cord Jefferson‘s satirical “American Fiction” script has thwarted it more than once.

In fact, “Oppenheimer’s” script can’t seem to catch a break. Christopher Nolan‘s biographical epic won four Golden Globes including Best Film Drama, but it lost Best Screenplay to the courtroom thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” (“American Fiction” wasn’t nominated there). Good news, though — “Anatomy of a Fall” is an original script, so the adapted “Oppenheimer” wouldn’t have to face it at later events where screenplays are split into two categories.

But then Critics Choice happened. “Oppenheimer” won Best Picture again, but this time “American Fiction” did receive a writing nomination, and it ended up beating “Oppenheimer” for Best Adapted Screenplay. Surely “Oppenheimer” would have the advantage at the BAFTAs, though, right? “American Fiction” was nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay there, but that was its only nomination from the British academy. Nevertheless, “American Fiction” still won the writing award while “Oppenheimer” took Best Picture.

I think the BAFTAs are especially telling. If the “Fiction” script is so good that even on its lone nomination it could beat the Best Picture winner, maybe “Fiction” is the real juggernaut headed into the Oscars. “Fiction” also benefits from the fact that it’s about writing, placing greater emphasis on its script. And it’s a social commentary with some clever narrative twists, kind of like other writing winners in recent years like “Get Out” and “Promising Young Woman.”

“Oppenheimer” may also be seen as more of a directing achievement than a writing achievement, and since Nolan is so far ahead in the Best Director race, voters may decide to spread the wealth in the writing category. That has happened before. Guillermo Del Toro won Best Picture and Best Director for “The Shape of Water” but lost the writing award to the aforementioned “Get Out.” Chloe Zhao won Best Picture and Best Director for “Nomadland,” but lost the writing award to “The Father.”

Then again, the academy doesn’t always care about spreading the wealth. They didn’t hesitate to give Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay to Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for “Birdman.” And they gave the same three awards to Bong Joon Ho for “Parasite.” So it’s still entirely possible for “Oppenheimer” to prevail across the board despite struggling at previous events; the acclaimed blockbuster could be too big to fail.

Indeed, “Oppenheimer” has the lead in our odds as of this writing, though “American Fiction” has more support from Experts and Editors. “Barbie” also has significant support in our predictions, so “Fiction” really may be the little film that could in a race against box office giants.

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