Junior Caminero could be the AL Rookie of the Year

But he’ll need to force his way up to the bigs quickly to have that chance.

There’s a lot to look forward to with the upcoming 2024 Rays season. Whether it be returning players who’s 2023 season was cut short due to injury (Jeffrey Springs, Shane Baz, Drew Rasmussen), new additions to the pitching staff (Ryan Pepiot and Naoyuki Uwasawa), or the array of farm system players that could potentially make big waves in their rookie seasons.

One player that’s garnered such hype is infielder and potential American League Rookie of the Year candidate Junior Caminero.

The 20-year-old from the Dominican Republic has been turning heads for years in the minor leagues, with a .316 batting average and .938 OPS in his 223 games throughout the minors. This attention continued to grow after his he spent seven games in the major leagues in 2023, batting .235 in 36 plate appearances with a home run as well.

Scouts are certainly noticing Caminero’s high ceiling, as he currently enters 2024 as the highest rated 3B/SS prospect by MLB Pipeline in 2024. Baseball America went so far as to rate his power at 80, making him the only player in the minors to receive the top level power grade.

Fans have also gravitated towards the young prospect’s hype, calling for him to be an opening day starter, and obsessing over his high potential.

So what is it about the young Caminero that has both scouts and fans gushing?

Caminero is currently in a league of his own when it comes to young talent in the minor leagues. Last season he was the only teenager to hit more than 25 home runs in Double-A, and he did so with 31. His exit velocity numbers would put him among the hardest hitting sluggers in the majors already, with his 90th percentile EV in the minors reaching 110 mph, the highest among all qualified minor league batters according to Baseball America.

Caminero isn’t purely a power hitter though, and he doesn’t strike out like one either.

His plate discipline and ability to consistently make solid contact have made massive improvements.His scouting report on mlb.com says “His plate discipline also improved as he climbed the ladder, and that, combined with his loud contact, should help him be a plus overall hitter, too.” And his ability to hit to both sides of the field — Caminero has gone the other way 28% of the time in his career, above the MLB average of 24% — makes him a difficult player to shift against.

Despite all these positives and a load of hype behind him, the odd’s are not exactly in favor of the 20-year-old to win the American League Rookie of the Year. Fanduel currently has him at +1000 odds to win the award, with Oriole’s Jackson Holliday being the favorite entering the year at +340.

So what is it that’s stopping Caminero from being a lock on the ALROY award? Well, while his youth is certainly a positive in many aspects, it can also be a negative at the same time.

The Rays are also likely looking for more improvement on defense from the young infielder, with FanGraphs noting that Caminero is still transitioning from shortstop to third base, and that his defense was not great there during winter ball. Tampa Bay has consistently been known as an organization that values pitching and defense. And he’ll need to break into a crowded infield that includes both established major league regulars (Yandy Diaz, Brandon Lowe, Isaac Paredes, and Amed Rosario), and young players with little left to prove in the minors (José Caballero, Curtis Mead, and Jonathan Aranda).

Caminero still has yet to play a game in Triple-A, which is an important step in most players’ path to the majors.

All this hasn’t halted the confidence of Caminero though.

“If I go to Triple A, I am not going to spend a lot of time there” Caminero said via translator Manny Navarro, quoted in the Tampa Bay Times.

Whether his season starts in Montgomery, Durham, or Tampa Bay, Rays fans certainly will need to keep their eye on Caminero, as he will almost certainly find his way to the Trop either as a DH or an infielder.

Opening day is set for March 28 as the Rays host the Toronto Blue Jays, where Caminero can begin to work his way to a potential trophy winning season.