Oscar Experts Typing: Who has the edge in that nail-biting Best Actress race?

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss the most up-in-the-air above-the-line category remaining: Best Actress.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! The calendar has turned to March and that means but one thing: *Doctor Strange voice* we’re in the endgame now. This week, Oscar voting came to an end and the anonymous ballots jump scares commenced soon after. But as we discussed with our voices this week, most of them have seemed fairly chaste, obvious and inoffensive. In fact, in most of the major categories, it’s all over but the shouting: If “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan, Cillian Murphy, Robert Downey Jr. and Da’Vine Joy Randolph don’t win their expected Oscars on March 10, something wild and unexpected happened during the ceremony the likes of which we haven’t seen in a long time. But to quote the great Rick Blaine, we’ll always have Best Actress. Our favorite category has remained a toss-up this year into the season’s final days, with twists and turns that have been as dramatic as anything in the Best Picture nominees. We don’t need to recap, but just in case we’ve got some casuals among the readership: Emma Stone took command of the race after “Poor Things” debuted at the fall festivals, but just a few weeks later, it was revealed that Lily Gladstone would campaign in the Best Actress category for “Killers of the Flower Moon.” Numerous articles, tweets and narratives soon followed — as well as multiple awards for both actresses. By the time 2024 rolled around, it felt like Gladstone was all but assured of her historic Best Actress win. But then Stone won at the Critics Choice Awards, Gladstone was a shocking snub at the BAFTA Awards, and it felt like the race had gone back to September. That is until Gladstone won at the SAG Awards and many pundits jumped on the comparisons between last year’s Best Actress battle between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh that resulted in a win for Yeoh and this year’s contest. We’ve debunked that particular narrative with our voices over the last several weeks, but I’m still torn on who might emerge victorious here, particularly with Sandra Hüller in the mix. The “Anatomy of a Fall” star is a dark horse contender — most people have her in third place — and while I don’t think she’ll pull off the upset, I do think she’ll factor heavily in the final results. This is the first industry award where all three actresses will compete with each other, and so we don’t actually know how people will vote. Accepting that the performances are all exemplary, there are pros and cons for each star. Gladstone has been a fixture on the campaign trail all season and her appearances have left audiences levitating — plus she has support from industry leaders like Kate Winslet and Cate Blanchett. But “Flower Moon” is respected if not necessarily loved (it missed key nominations in Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay) and it’s easy to imagine it getting blanked like Martin Scorsese‘s previous 10-time nominees “Gangs of New York” and “The Irishman.” “Poor Things” is surging (although it maybe could’ve done a bit better at BAFTA), but it still seems like a polarizing movie (if not the way many of its haters had hoped) and Stone won recently, not that it really matters. Hüller is the wild card and “Anatomy” might be running second to “Oppenheimer” in Best Picture — and it’s the only film here that can expect to win an above-the-line category besides Best Actress. But if she were going to win the Oscar, she probably would’ve won BAFTA. And yet, what if Stone won BAFTA because Gladstone wasn’t nominated and the two American actresses didn’t split the vote? Is that a thing? I’ve switched to Gladstone in my picks because I’m me, but I’m not sure if I’ll stay there by the time we get to our “final” picks next week. Joyce, help me before I type another 300 words about this.

joyceeng: That is as much of a thing as the suggestion that Murphy could lose BAFTA because a Brit and Irishman lost to Americans the past two years: not. I don’t know what to do here. I’ve made no changes at the top, so I still have Stone in first. Will I have her in first this time next week? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ It’s true that we have absolutely no idea how a race between the three of them at an industry awards show would play out. But I think most of us have Hüller in third because she’s the only one without industry hardware. Stats lovers will also cite the fact that no SAG Award snubbee has won Best Actress before — but this has happened in the supporting categories, and, you know, first time for everything. Would this be the year that stat breaks, though, when there are two other formidable contenders in the mix? It’s easy to say in hindsight — and we’ll never know — but this year’s race feels a lot tighter than last year’s. It was clear at this point last year that all the momentum was with Yeoh after the SAG Awards turned into an “Everything Everywhere All at Once” extravaganza with Jamie Lee Curtis‘ surprising win, in addition to the other expected three. None of these women are in the Best Picture sweeper. I would say “Anatomy” has the most broad appeal of their three films. “Poor Things” has exceeded expectations — cracking $100 million at the global box office — and, like you said, it’s not as divisive as the haters and Stone antidictors wanted it to be. “Killers of the Flower Moon” seems to lack passion as a whole, or to put it another way, all the passion for that film is with Gladstone. She gets a ton of love in the room when she wins and gives a speech — one of which you were part of — but that’s still just a couple hundred people each time, and they’re not all Oscar voters. It’s good that the passion for her appears to be independent of the film, and that might be enough for her to pull out the win, but I also can’t ignore that Stone and Hüller have an advantage with their films being ostensibly more liked. I guess what I’m saying is that if “Killers of the Flower Moon” were like “Everything Everywhere All at Once,” I would have Gladstone right now. But it’s not, and I don’t know if I ultimately will. We’ve talked a lot about how stronger films have an edge usually — will that play out here? Not to make another comp, but Chadwick Boseman was the Best Actor favorite three years ago, with an unbelievably tragic narrative too, but “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” missed Best Picture, and he lost to Anthony Hopkins, a past winner from a Best Picture nominee, “The Father,” that was soaring at the end of the season and won another above-the-line Oscar.

SEE Experts slugfest: Oscar voting is closed and Best Actress is still a toss-up

Christopher Rosen: I’ve thought about how this race could mirror the 2021 Best Actor result, with Boseman the ostensible “fan favorite” losing to Hopkins, who won BAFTA. But like you wrote, even that comp isn’t necessarily strong: “Ma Rainey” missed out on Best Picture and while it would’ve probably gotten in with a field of 10, I don’t think “Flower Moon” got in this year only because it was a field of 10. Plus, Hopkins had his own strong narrative as the oldest Oscar acting winner ever, and his performance and role were arguably more “Oscar-friendly” than what Stone does in “Poor Things.” So performances aside, you could argue that the strongest case for Gladstone is Gladstone herself — she’s a host unto herself and even people who aren’t gaga for “Flower Moon” love her and the work. (In fact, if the movie actually were more about her character, I think it could be a contender to win Best Picture.) That’s why I feel an increasing confidence that she can and will win: She’s the “Everything Everywhere” of this race and maybe even the whole season, and we’ve seen that when that kind of enthusiasm builds, it’s hard to stop. Who knows? Maybe she could’ve even won at BAFTA were she nominated. We’ll never know, but a boy can dream? All that typed, if Stone or Hüller won, I wouldn’t be shocked either. This is probably the last time we’re type in detail about this race, so do you have anything else to add about the two performers who don’t really have to worry about whether or not they’ll win on March 10: Annette Bening and Carey Mulligan?

joyceeng: But is the enthusiasm actually building? Or do we just assume it is because she won SAG? Usually acting winners who are their film’s sole win — as we believe Gladstone would be — dominate the season, and even when there are various quirks and stumbles, you’re still pretty confident they’ll win the Oscar (see: Jennifer Lawrence, Regina King, Alicia Vikander, the latter two of whom weren’t even in Best Picture nominees). There definitely was a point (right after the Golden Globes) when I thought Gladstone would sweep, but alas. And don’t get me wrong — I think she’s always had a lot of supporters (Spike Lee included) and has gained new ones the past few months, but we know she wasn’t top three at BAFTA when longlist voting occurred in December, a time when she arguably had a lot of momentum (and you interviewed her that month while she was in London campaigning to the Brits). Between the Globes and the SAG Awards, it felt like momentum stalled — whether it did nor not in reality, who knows? — but “Killers” also went home empty-handed at BAFTA, where “Everything Everywhere” managed a win in editing. I also don’t think Hopkins had a strong narrative — becoming the oldest acting winner is just a cool stat, not something that necessarily inspires votes — and everyone knows he had won before, so it wasn’t a “now or never” thing either. I don’t think Stone or Hüller have narratives either, or strong ones at least, so for them it might just boil down to performance preference (and yes, Hopkins’ turn is way more “Oscar-friendly” than either of theirs). Bening is someone who has a strong narrative, but it feels like that never took flight. Some of that is probably due to Film Twitter’s disdain for “Nyad.” She’s more of an “overdue veteran” than Paul Giamatti, but people delighted in dunking on guild fave “Nyad,” a totally competent inspo sports film. I think the race is too stacked for Bening to have much of a chance, and she unfortunately came down with COVID two weeks ago and missed her final stops on the trail, including the SAG Awards. As for Mulligan, whom I greatly enjoyed in “Maestro,” in another life, she probably could’ve won or been more competitive. Maybe if “Maestro” were more of a traditional biopic? Remember the days when some thought “Maestro” could take both lead categories? What a time.

SEE Oscar Experts Typing: Which SAG Awards dark horses could pull off an upset?

Christopher Rosen: I mean, I’m sure the thought crossed my mind. Those were the days! Fortunately, we still have some time to figure this one out before our final picks (“final”). I’ll leave you with the last word here, as I go back to the lab to galaxy brain my way to a Hüller upset.

joyceeng: I hope Hüller is leading anonymous ballots votes this time next week because you’d switch to her. You are nothing if not on brand.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?