11 Points and Back Across the Channel

The weekend was good for Villa: They took care of their own business, and City did, too, the two results pushing Villa’s cushion to sixth back up to 11 points. Not insignificant at this stage of the season. And then of course it’s Ajax on Thursday to recommence our European campaign after a much-needed break. So first off, let’s stop and take that in: Villa are fourth in the League, and playing Ajax in the elimination rounds of the Conference League. Sounds a bit like the sort of scenario we’ve been dreaming of returning to for god knows how many years.

First, the league. Others have gone through and done the maths (thank you), which is very useful for gauging expectations. Still some variables in play (four places or five for Champions League, etc). But in the end, Villa have a very good shot at finishing no lower than fifth. The fact that a very uneven United are the ones chasing, well, lovely to seem them looking up at us, and there’s a touch of optimism to be had from their disjointed performances. Are they still in it? Most certainly. Have they shown they can maintain the kind of form necessary to blow by us? Not yet. In essence, Villa just need to hold serve.

Will it be easy at this pressure-packed end of the season? No. We saw that Saturday. Will it be nervy? Oh yes. Do Spurs have what it takes to overtake us? Yes, again. And that’s what will be driving Villa much more than United.

Digne’s late winner against the flow was just the sort of goal that lends belief, though, and there was Diaby providing the service. The idea that they’ll find a way, just like when the Forest match also looked and felt like dropped points incoming. Of course people will say those are teams we should be beating, and sure, if you want to finish high, you have to win those games. Those are the points your competitors will generally be picking up.

Naturally, it’s the players who have the final say, the product on the pitch. Their strength of mind, belief, and desire. But Emery’s given them the platform. Time and again as we’ve sat sweating, Villa have patiently played to his instructions and found a late goal. And while the high line will always carry a risk, it’s how you maintain possession high up the pitch. Villa now play smart. Don’t force it, don’t turn it over in the middle of the pitch with everyone sucked up. Play it back, move it round. It’s what the best clubs do.

And like the best clubs, Villa are now making adjustments based on the opposition. Given Luton’s relentless pressing, Villa worked it forward much more quickly first half. We quite often saw the ball to Lenglet, then Moreno, who was quickly passing down the left to Ollie, who was hanging over there waiting for it. Low risk versus working it through middle of the pitch, bypass the press without a lot of tight passing, launch moves quickly. We got the cushion we needed and deserved. And as Ollie noted, Villa need to be better at 2-0 or even 3-0.

Me, I think some of that relaxation is down to mental fatigue. You’ve played them off the park, gotten your goals, and you’re thinking about saving yourself, thinking why shouldn’t that dominance continue. This weekend, they knew there’s a big game Thursday, after all, then another Sunday against Spurs. Both of those could go a long way to determining the season’s and ECL’s outcomes.

But however it happened, quality came on off the bench, and the points were secured by staying within the system.

Ajax? Not much to say, really. It’s not make or break in the first leg, you just want to come away with at least a draw.

These extra matches, plus a league run-in that isn’t easy, and we can all see why it’s a big deal that Villa have managed to get maximum points against Sheffield, Fulham, Forest, and Luton. They simply wouldn’t have gotten all 12 on offer in the past. Without them, we really wouldn’t still be in the hunt.

At the moment, I’d probably prefer not having a game Thursday before Spurs. But, that’s what we’ve wanted, the players, too. Emery can’t rotate too much, and I’ve no idea how much threat Ajax actually pose, but they’re in the round of 16, and clubs I’ve never heard of have pushed us hard in the group stages.

Anyway, basically everything’s important from here on out and for all the right reasons. We’re just about where we want to be, and it’s almost miraculous. Here’s to belief and finding that little bit extra a few more times.

Over to you.