2024 Division rival preview: Cleveland Guardians
Can they continue to churn out young talent?
The Guardians have fielded one of the six lowest Opening Day payrolls in each of the last four seasons, yet have made the playoffs twice over that stretch. Last year wasn’t one of those years, however, and their 86 losses were the most by a Cleveland team since 2012, the last year someone other than Terry Francona managed the team. The team hired first-year manager Stephen Vogt to replace their retiring manager to lead a team that had the youngest pitching staff and second-youngest lineup last year.
The franchise has a history of trading away star players but constantly reloading with talent, particularly on the pitching side. All-Star closer Emmanuel Clase could be the next to go, as trade rumors swirled around him this off-season. The team picked up former Royals closer Scott Barlow from the Padres, and he could fill in the closer’s role if Clase is moved.
Cleveland Guardians
2023 record: 76-86
2023 pythag: 77-85
2024 ZIPS projection: 80-82
2024 PECOTA projection: 84-78
Manager: Stephen Vogt (first season)
Key additions: Scott Barlow, Carlos Carrasco, Austin Hedges
Key departures: Kole Calhoun, Enyel De Los Santos, Cam Gallagher, Lucas Giolito, Oscar Gonzalez, Reynaldo Lopez, Zach Plesac, Cal Quantrill
Offense
Cleveland’s weakness has been the offense for some time, but they’re hoping to get a boost from some young hitters. The Guardians finished dead last in baseball in home runs last year, but Josh Naylor blossomed last year into a 133 OPS+ slugger despite battling an oblique injury. His younger brother Bo had an impressive rookie season behind the plate with 11 home runs in just 62 games. The team is hoping Kyle Manzardo, acquired from the Rays, can solidify first base after hitting .237/.337/.464 with 17 home runs in the minors last year.
José Ramírez continues to be one of the most valuable players in baseball, finishing 16th among all position players in fWAR last year. Gabriel Arias will battle Brayan Rocchio for the starting shortstop job, and right field could up for grabs if Ramón Laureano falters, with Will Brennan and Esteval Florial looking for playing time.
Pitching
Cleveland finished tenth in baseball in ERA, but had a tough time missing bats, with the fifth-lowest strikeout rate. They moved on from young starters Zach Plesac and Cal Quantrill with fresh new arms to take over. Cleveland had 91 starts from pitchers age 25 or younger, fourth-most in baseball.
Former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber anchors the rotation after being limited to just 21 starts last year due to an elbow injury. If he gets off to a good start, he could be traded as well, especially if Triston McKenzie bounces back from his injuries last year to put up similar numbers to his 2.96 ERA in 2022.
The Guardians have served as a model on how to win sustainably without many resources. But the lack of spending has kept them from having much post-season success. As long as the organization continues to excel at developing pitching, the team can compete in a weak Central Division. But the margin of error is thin, and every year that passes without a title extends the longest active championship drought in baseball.