2024 Division rival preview: Minnesota Twins
Are the Twins a franchise to emulate?
The Twins won the division last year with 87 wins, the lowest winning percentage by a Central Division winner since 1997. The team was probably better than they showed on the field, as evidenced by their runs scored and runs allowed, and they were also hard-hit by injuries. They are already facing some injuries to start this season with relievers Jhoan Duran and Caleb Thielbar likely to begin the season on the Injured List and starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani on the shelf with a strained forearm.
Manager Rocco Baldelli has led the team to three division titles in five seasons, but last year was the first time the club had won a post-season series (heck, they hadn’t even won a game) since 2004. This off-season, the Twins let some veteran players depart without adding any significant pieces. But they could still be very competitive, relying on young players to emerge, particularly star infielder Royce Lewis.
Minnesota Twins
2023 record: 87-75 (1st place)
2023 pythag: 93-69
2024 ZIPS projection: 84-78
2024 PECOTA projection: 90-72
Manager: Rocco Baldelli (sixth season)
Key additions: Anthony DeSclafani, Manuel Margot, Steven Okert, Josh Staumont, Justin Topa
Key departures: Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Emilio Pagán, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Santana, Donovan Solano, Michael A. Taylor
Offense
The Twins scored the tenth-most runs in baseball last year, mostly by bashing the baseball. Their 233 home runs as a team were eclipsed only by the Braves and Dodgers, and they had 12 different players with a double-digit home run total. They were a three-true outcome team, finishing with the fourth-highest walk rate and highest strikeout rate, although the departure of Joey Gallo could affect those numbers.
The Twins have a ton of infield depth, which is why they traded away infielder Jorge Polanco to the Mariners. Top prospect Brooks Lee could be up at some point this season, and former first-round pick Austin Martin could also be a factor.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
Pitching
Only the Brewers and Padres gave up fewer runs than Twins pitchers. They struck out more hitters than anyone else and gave up the fourth-fewest walks. The rotation will have some upheaval with Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda departing as free agents, but the team is hoping for a comeback by Chris Paddack, who missed most of last year after elbow reconstruction surgery.
The hard-throwing Durán will get save opportunities when he is healthy, with Griffin Jax or Emilio Pagán filling in for the interim. Former Royals reliever Josh Staumont has come to camp with reduced velocity and is in danger of not making the Opening Day roster.
All statistics are 2023 numbers.
The Twins once had the small-market blues, but since opening up Target Field in 2010, they have consistently had payrolls in the middle of baseball. That hasn’t translated into post-season success, but it has given the team several bites at the apple with five post-season appearances in that time. Perhaps this is the more sustainable model John Sherman is looking to implement with the Royals.