The Republican House Majority Will Soon Be Down to Just One Seat

Thanks to another imminent resignation, Speaker Johnson will soon be holding on by a thread.

The sorry state of the Republican House majority got even sorrier on Friday with the resignation announcement of Representative Mike Gallagher. When the Wisconsin moderate steps down on April 19, Republicans will have absolutely no margin for error, with just a one-seat majority in the lower chamber.

Last January, at the beginning of the current House session, the party held a nine-seat edge over the Democrats. But thanks to a variety of reasons — a wave surprise early exits like Gallagher’s, the expulsion of an impossibly messy character from Queens — the caucus has no more members to lose. They have not made up for this numerical precariousness by becoming more cohesive: Also on Friday, Majorie Taylor Greene filed a motion to oust Mike Johnson as Speaker for passing a spending deal to avoid a government shutdown. (Greene said she did not want to “throw the House into chaos,” though it may be a little late for that.)

Such dysfunction is likely a key reason Gallagher decided to step down so soon, rather than wait until after the election. A close ally of fellow early exiter Kevin McCarthy, Gallagher was excoriated by fellow GOP House reps after voting against the impeachment of Homeland Security secretary Alejandro Mayorkas last month. Days after, he announced he would not run for reelection. The timing of his resignation looks like a careful middle finger to the rest of the caucus:

WOW! Like Buck, Mike Gallagher carefully timed his departure. Under Wisconsin law, congressional vacancies occurring "prior to the 2nd Tuesday in April" in an election year get filled on a faster timeline. An April 19th resignation will keep Gallagher's seat vacant until November pic.twitter.com/7VxSv4Bld5

— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) March 22, 2024

With Gallagher heading for the exits with no replacement, Mike Johnson will do his best to keep the most tenuous possible majority in line until the special election to replace McCarthy on May 21, which will likely give him a luxurious two-person cushion. But there is some good news for Johnson as he attempts to stay in command: A one-vote majority known for being a complete mess probably does not have the numbers to remove him as Speaker.