2024 Tony Awards nominations: What shows are up (‘An Enemy of the People’) and down (‘Patriots’) in the play races?

In the final two months of the 2023-2024 Broadway season, seven new plays and play revivals join a slate of 15 total dramas eligible for the 77th Tony Awards. With so many buzzy revivals and new works set to begin performances in the few weeks before the Tony nominations are announced on April 30, our users have been busy updating their choices for the most likely nominees in seven of the 11 play categories. See below for a breakdown of how our official odds have changes in the top categories since our last predictions center update on March 12, according to the 800 users currently making their picks. Scroll to the bottom of the article for a tall of nominations by show in seven of the 11 play categories.

UP

“Prayer for the French Republic” — Although this critically-acclaimed production closed on Broadway on March 3, it has been gaining momentum in our predictions center. We had previously predicted it for Best Play and Director (David Cromer) nominations and have added a bid in Featured Actress for Francis Benhamou.

“An Enemy of the People” — All of the attention for this new adaptation of the Henrik Ibsen classic was previously on a nomination in Best Actor for lead Jeremy Strong, who our users predicted as the production’s sole nominee in the top categories. After it received near-universally strong reviews, though, we now expect it to reap a second bid, this one in Featured Actor for Michael Imperioli.

WATCH 2024 Tony Awards predictions slugfest: How many nominations will hit play ‘Appropriate’ earn?

DOWN

“Patriots” — This West End transfer does not even begin previews until April 1, but our users are tempering their expectations for how well it will do. We once thought it would pick up five nominations for Best Play, Actor (Michael Stuhlbarg), Featured Actor (Will Keen), Featured Actor (Luke Thallon) and Director (Rupert Goold), but in the last week our users have dropped that second featured bid for Thallon for a new total of four noms.

“Mary Jane” — Just like “Patriots,” this play hasn’t even started performances (its first preview is April 2), but in such competitive races, even a few users changing their thoughts could mean major changes. While our odds had Rachel McAdams landing a Best Actress nom, she has slipped out of our top four in the category, so the tally for this show now stands at zero. It has plenty of room to grow once it premieres, though.

SEE 2024 Olivier Awards nominations: ‘Sunset Boulevard,’ ‘Guys and Dolls,’ ‘Dear England’ lead

FLAT

“Uncle Vanya” — This is the biggest unknown of the spring slate of plays. Our combined odds have been very high on its prospects based on its cast and creative team, predicting five nominations for Best Play, Actor (Steve Carell), Featured Actress (Jayne Houdyshell), Featured Actress (Alison Pill) and Featured Actor (Alfred Molina). Folks still think it will land five bids, but they’ve swapped out Pill for a Best Actress nom for Anika Noni Rose, a past Tony Award winner for musical “Caroline, or Change.” It is still far too early to tell just how well this production will do because not a single person has seen a performance; previews begin April 2.

“Doubt” — We expect this remounting of the John Patrick Shanley play at by Roundabout Theatre Company to score two performer nominations, though our users have been rethinking which two people will make the cut. Our previous predictions were for Best Actress for Amy Ryan and Best Featured Actress for Zoe Kazan; however, we’ve now made a swap in the Featured Actress category and opt for Quincy Tyler Bernstine, who plays the role that previously won Adriane Lenox a Tony in this very same category.

There are even more plays and play revivals that have stayed steady during this busy spring period of the Broadway season. Those are “Appropriate,” “Mother Play” and “Purlie Victorious” with four expected nominations, “Stereophonic” with two and “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding” with one.

Nominations Predictions

Uncle Vanya — 5
Appropriate — 4
Mother Play — 4
Patriots — 4
Purlie Victorious — 4
Prayer for the French Republic — 3
Doubt — 2
An Enemy of the People — 2
Stereophonic — 2
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding — 1

The tally of total nominations by show does not include the four categories of Scenic Design, Costume Design, Lighting Design and Sound Design.

PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest prediction