Previewing the Guardians’ 2024 March-April Starting Rotation and Bullpen

Who will be toeing the bump for Cleveland to start the season?

The pitchers for the Guardians have been hit hard by injuries and illnesses this Spring, but there are still plenty of exciting arms headed to Oakland on March 28th.

Zack Meisel posted the Guardians’ current plan for the Opening Day Roster yesterday:

There are a few names who are obvious. Shane Bieber has had an excellent Spring Training, with a fastball often sitting 93-94 and a slider looking sharp with a more frequently used curveball. Tanner Bibee looks to follow up an excellent rookie campaign, while Triston McKenzie looks to stay healthy and resume his 2022 form. Logan Allen has been good in Spring, as well, hoping to avoid the sophomore slump. With Gavin Williams having tweaked his elbow in weighted ball warm-ups, he will start the year on the 10-Day IL as he gets stretched back out, leaving a spot in the rotation up for grabs. Chris Antonetti on the radio broadcast yesterday indicated that Carlos Carrasco would likely be the fifth starter, with Tyler Beede being the long-relief option, at least to start things off.

It’s great to have fan-favorite and known good guy Carrasco back on the team.

He’s had a good Spring Training (2.57 ERA, 4.67 FIP in 14 innings) but it’s hard to say how effective he will be considering his 5.86 FIP from last season and his age (37). But, if there’s anything that can revitalize a career for a bit, it’s a return to an organization you love and fans who adore you. I’m hoping for the best for Cookie.

Beede, meanwhile, is an interesting addition. After putting up a 4.99 FIP in 61 innings in 2022, he went to Japan... and put up a 3.99 ERA in 49 innings. Reports were, however, that his fastball has been hitting 97 mph. I haven’t had to chance to see the radar gun for him this Spring, but the Guardians see something they like in the 30 year-old former first round pick for the Giants and he has a 1.69 ERA in 10.2 innings in exhibitions. It’s one of those cases I have to trust the Guardians’ pitching development, and, if there turns out not to be anything here, he’s an easy DFA as soon as Gavin Williams is back.

There are four established arms in the bullpen in Eli Morgan, Nick Sandlin, Scott Barlow and Emmanuel Clase. Personally, I’m not too concerned about the homer issues Morgan has run into this Spring. Yes, he’s more homer prone than you’d ideally want, but the Arizona elevation and atmosphere is also quite homer prone and it’s 7.2 innings. I suspect he’s likely to produce something similar to his career 3.69 xFIP in the first half and they’ll need to see if they can help him find more second-half success. Speaking of homer-prone, hopefully Nick Sandlin can see something more similar to his prior home run per fly-ball rate of 6% instead of the 18.8% he gave up last season. The key is likely limiting the side-armer’s appearances against left-handed hitters as much as possible (career 4.91 FIP vs LHP and 3.66 FIP vs RHP).

Barlow and Clase are the ones the Guardians are really counting on, especially early in the season. I think it’s a good sign that Barlow is striking out 16 per 9 in Spring Training and Clase is striking out 15 per 9. Hopefully, the return of Austin Hedges and not having to worry about what will happen when he buries a slider in the dirt with Mike Zunino on the mound will help Clase rediscover his 2021-2022 form. Barlow has a career 3.34 FIP in high leverage situations and his proven experience there seems to be the primary reason the Guardians exchanged Enyel De Los Santos for him this offseason.

With Sam Hentges (swollen finger) and James Karinchak (shoulder fatigue) starting the year on the IL, the Guardians had to reach into their bullpen depth to fill out the roster. They had to go even further into their depth because offseason addition Ben Lively and reliable 2023 swing-man Xzavion Curry have been sick with the camp respiratory virus for the past week and will also need to work their way back into getting ready for major league action to start the year. In good news, the Guardians’ radio broadcast also said that Sam Hentges is throwing again, so I believe that means that all four of these pitchers have returned to the mound, at least.

In the meantime, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herrin and Cade Smith (more on that in a bit) will get the first reps in relief. Gaddis has been sensational this Spring with a 1.86 FIP in 11.2 innings, striking out over 13 batters per 9. Among many others, I’ve wanted to see Gaddis in a relief role for a while and I’m hoping his fastball velocity will play up and the shorter outings will make it easier for him to make his release point for his fastball and his change up more difficult for hitters to distinguish. Herrin has given up a couple homers (Arizona again) but his Spring 11.81/0.84 K/BB/9 would play very nicely in the Guardians pen. While it’s always best not to read much into February-March stats, I do think a year of tough experience will help Herrin rediscover something closer to the 12.26/3.26 K/BB/9 he put up in Columbus in 2022.

Notably, on the list above and as repeated by Zack Meisel, Mandy Bell AND Chris Antonetti, again, on the radio broadcast, Cade Smith has made the roster IF the Guardians don’t make an external relief addition. The fact this is being said makes me think the Guardians have their eye on either a waiver wire claim or a small trade (MAYBE WITH THE GUARDIANS FINALLY TRADING ONE OF THESE BLOCKED MIDDLE-INFIELDERS???) to get one more proven veteran arm. It’s the time of Spring where a team can afford to add a little bit more payroll with the roster picture clearly in view, so there may be a rebuilding team looking for an exciting young player and willing to part with a more expensive veteran bullpen arm (Tanner Scott from Miami might be the biggest potential name?). If it’s Smith, well, he’s struck out 12.8 batters per 9 this Spring and hasn’t walked a guy. He throws upper 90’s, he struck out 14.61 per 9 in Triple-A last season. If he can command the baseball consistently, he could make himself a late-inning option in short order, which is the reason he was added to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Overall Notes: There’s no doubt that things are a little more unsure in the pen right now, primarily because of Sam Hentges’ finger problems. But, I do feel optimistic about Gaddis’s ability to be effective in relief and I think Tim Herrin looks like a classic case of someone who needed to take his lumps as a rookie and will be solid, especially against left-handed relievers. It’s worth noting that Ben Lively doesn’t have a minor-league option and is on a big league deal so when he is healthy, he will need to be added to the roster if the team believes in the value he adds to the staff.

Hopefully, folks like Franco Aleman and Andrew Walters will come out strong in the minors and make themselves into options for the big league as needed, and the veteran arms currently working their way back will all get healthy soon. There are some question marks, but it’s time for us to rely on the vaunted Cleveland pitching factory to figure out how to lock down the end of games effectively.