Rays Madness: elite eight matchups

Part 2!

In the spirit of march madness, I created a 16 team bracket with different Rays teams of the past, and have been utilizing a baseball simulator to play out a single elimination bracket and to determine the winner of each matchup.

The seeding was decided on a ranking of each previous Rays team’s regular season winning percentage, with the 2020 Rays earning the no. 1 seed with a .667 winning percentage. Each game is simulated just one time (higher seeded team bats second), and the results are final.

Here are the results so far!

In this edition, we will be thinning the field to our final four teams, with the top seeded 2020 team taking on the 2018 team, the 2019 team taking on the 2017 team, the 2023 team going up against the 2010 team, and the 2013 team facing off against the 2014 team. Here are those second round matchups:

1 - 2020 Rays
9 - 2018 Rays

5 - 2019 Rays
13 - 2017 Rays

3 - 2023 Rays
6 - 2010 Rays

7 - 2013 Rays
15 - 2014 Rays

To add another layer to this bracket, these matchups will be featuring each team’s second best pitchers (based on pitching WAR for that season). This gives more advantage to teams with pitching depth and emulates a real tournament where their top pitchers would be fatigued from playing in the first round.

No. 1 2020 Rays vs. No. 9 2018 Rays

Our first elite eight matchup sees the 2020 Rays roster facing off against the 2018 roster, with 2020 putting Ryan Yarborough on the mound following Blake Snell’s first round performance. 2018 will start Chris Archer, with this team also having started last round with Blake Snell.

The 2020 Rays need no introduction, known for their magical playoff run, winning the AL Pennant. Randy Arozarena was the headline of that postseason run, hitting 10 home runs with a .377 batting average and only a 22.1% strikeout rate.

The 2018 Rays are the first roster with current Rays manager Kevin Cash, going 90-72 and giving Rays fans their first winning season since 2013. This group is led on the offensive side by CJ Cron, who led the team in RBIs, Runs, and Home Runs.

The 2018 Rays got off to a hot start, with Joey Wendle dribbling a single to right center bringing Wilson Ramos around to score from second. Willy Adames would then reach first on an error by Willy Adames (perhaps thrown off by playing against himself) which scored CJ Cron from third. The 2018 Rays would enter the second inning with a 2-0 lead over the AL Champs.

This lead wouldn’t last long, however, with the 2020 team responding in the bottom of the second. Hunter Renfroe ripped a double into the gap, scoring Ji-Man Choi. Renfroe would then get around to score himself as Michael Perez skied a double into right centerfield to tie the game 2-2.

The next few frames would result in a small scoring drought, as both teams threatened to score but couldn’t get anyone across the plate.

That is, until the tie was broken in the bottom of the fifth inning with a Yoshi Tsutsugo single scoring Wendle from second to make the game 3-2.

The next four innings would revolve around the 2020 squad putting up a pitching display, as Yarborough, Pete Fairbanks, and Ryan Thompson would finish the game without allowing another run, and sealing a 3-2 win and final four berth for the 2020 squad.

Yarborough was the player of the game, allowing just six hits and two earned runs in six innings on the mound. Yarbrough! Madness.

No. 5 2019 Rays vs. No. 13. 2017 Rays

In our next elite eight matchup we see the 2019 team taking on the 2017 team, with 2019 putting Blake Snell on the mound following a first round performance from Charlie Morton. 2017 will be giving the ball to Alex Cobb following a Chris Archer performance in the first round.

This 2019 team is led on the batting side by Austin Meadows, who crushed 33 home runs that season, along with 89 RBIs. Meadows helped lead this squad to a 96-66 record and a wild card berth. They would go on to move past the Oakland Athletics in the wild card matchup, before falling to the Houston Astros in five games.

On the other side, 2017 is led offensively by Steven Souza Jr. who finished the year with 30 home runs and 78 RBIs, as this team struggled to break .500 finishing 80-82 and missing the playoffs.

This game starts with fireworks early, as the 2019 squad gets going with a two-run home run from Brandon Lowe in the bottom of the first. Yandi Diaz followed up the next at bat with a home run of his own, and we entered the second inning with the 2019 team up 3-0.

It wouldn’t be until the top of the third inning that the 2017 team would provide any response, as a Logan Morrison groundout would score Kevin Kiermaier from third. They would follow up the next inning with a solo home run from Souza Jr. as we enter the fifth inning with the 2019 Rays lead cut down to 3-2.

The top of the fifth inning is where the 2017 Rays would really break through.

It starts with the bases loaded and nobody out, as Souza Jr. comes up big again with a single that scored Brad Miller. Fan favorite Evan Longoria would hit a single of his own the next at bat that would score both Morrison and Corey Dickerson. Wilson Ramos would then add even more on with yet another single that scores Souza Jr. and the 2017 Rays suddenly take the lead 6-3

The 2019 Rays would cut the lead down to one with a Travis d’Arnaud home run that scored Avisail Garcia and made the game 6-5.

We now enter the bottom of the ninth, with the 2019 Rays down to their final at bat, needing heroics from Kiermaier to stay alive and force extras.

Kiermaier connects on a ball and it takes Corey Dickerson to the warning track, but he makes the play and secures a final four spot for the Cinderella 2017 Rays, as they take the game 6-5. Souza Jr. was the player of the game, being a part of almost every important moment of the game. Madness.

No. 3 2023 Rays vs. No. 6 2010 Rays

Our next matchup sees both the most recent and oldest remaining teams facing off against each other, with 2023 squad putting Tyler Glasnow on the mound (in a perfect world where he doesn’t get injured). 2010 will be following James Shields’s performance with a start from David Price.

This 2023 squad is led in the batters box is led by Yandi Diaz and Wander Franco, both putting up offensive WARs over 4 in the 2023 season, as the 2023 team won 99 games but disappointed fans in the playoffs getting swept by the eventual champion Texas Rangers.

The 2010 squad has some nostalgic names on their offense, being led by Carl Crawford, who had 110 runs scored and stole 47 bases in a 2010 season that saw the Rays win 96 games and winning the AL East. This squad would also lose to the Texas Rangers, with the 2010 team losing in five games in the AL divisional series.

It would be the 2010 squad that would get started early with the scoring, with Ben Zobrist scoring on an infield single from Carl Crawford in the top of the first inning. They would add on in the second inning with Sean Rodriguez scoring off a single from Jason Bartlett. THe 2010 Rays lead 2-0 entering the third inning.

This game would be a pitching display for both sides. Each run was hard fought for both sides, with neither team scoring more than one run in a single inning.

Jose Siri would finally break the shutout for the 2023 team in the bottom of the fourth, driving a single into centerfield that scored Josh Lowe. Later in the bottom of the sixth, Yandi Diaz would score on a single from Harold Ramirez and we are tied 2-2 going into the seventh inning.

The pitching battle would continue, as neither team would score for the next two innings. As we enter the ninth inning, we still are drawn 2-2 with the winner moving on to the final four.

The 2010 team went down 1-2-3 and the 2023 team looked to be having the same fate as their first two batters went down without a fight. But with Siri up to bat, he connected on a fastball that went high and deep to left-center. As centerfielder B.J. Upton ran towards the wall, he eventually came to realize that it was hopeless, as the ball sailed over the wall, in a walk-off victory for the 2023 Rays and a berth in the final four.

Although Glasnow and the bullpen had impressive performances, Siri was undoubtedly the player of the game, with two RBIs and the walk off home run. Madness again!

No. 7 2013 Rays vs. No. 15. 2014 Rays

Our final matchup of the second round sees the 2013 Rays putting Matt Moore on the mound against the 2014 Rays, who are putting David Price as the starter.

The 2013 Rays were led offensively by Rays legend Evan Longoria, who hit 32 home runs with 88 RBIs and a 5.5 batting WAR that season as the Rays went 92-77 for a second place finish in the AL East. They would handle the Cleveland Indians (now Guardians) in the AL Wild Card matchup but fall to the Boston Red Sox in four games in the AL Divisional Series.

The 2014 Rays also saw heavy bat contributions from Longoria but their most proficient hitter in terms of WAR was actually Ben Zobrist, with a 4.7 WAR. This team largely disappointed considering their success the previous season, finishing 77-85 for a fourth place finish in the AL East.

Zobrist would put that offensive efficiency on display quickly for the 2014 Rays in the top of the first inning, with an RBI single that brought Desmond Jennings in to score. Before the 2013 squad had even recorded an out, the Cinderella 2014 Rays were already up 1-0.

This would be the only scoring we see in the front half of the game, however, as both teams would struggle to even get a man on third base through the first five innings against Moore and Price.

That ends in the bottom of the sixth, when Longoria hit a towering three-run home run to give the 2013 team a 3-1 lead.

They would expand on this lead when Kelly Johnson reached first on an error by Zobrist, causing Matt Joyce to come around and score. Yunel Escobar would follow that up with a double that scored Johnson and Luke Scott, and suddenly the 2013 team was up 6-1.

The 2014 team would respond in the top of the seventh though, with their Yunel Escobar hitting a two-run home run to make the game 6-3.

The comeback would fall short, though, as the 2013 Rays would win convincingly 7-3, ending the run for the underdog 2014 group and advancing to the final four.

Longoria was a crucial factor with his momentum changing three-run home run, earning him the player of the game nod. Not so mad!

Conclusion

After an electric second round, here are the matchups we have in our Rays Madness final four.

1 - 2020 Rays
13 - 2017 Rays

3 - 2023 Rays
7 - 2013 Rays

Stay tuned as we get one step closer to crowning a champion in our Rays Madness bracket.