Shaking off the Rust: Mariners vs. Guardians Series Preview

The Mariners continue their opening homestand with a three-game series against the Guardians.

It was an up-and-down opening series for the Mariners and it feels a little lucky they were able to walk away with a series split. The pitching was as advertised; they allowed just 3.5 runs per game against a talented Red Sox lineup. Unfortunately, the offense was as frustrating as ever; the three run comeback victory on Saturday was essentially the only time all weekend they were able to string together a bunch of hits in a single inning. It’s still way too early to make any sweeping judgments about this team.

Back in 2022, the Guardians surprised everyone and won the AL Central with the youngest roster in baseball. They took a pretty big step back last year thanks to a few injuries on their pitching staff and some declining production from their biggest offensive stars. They did graduate three young starters from the farm system last year which should give them a strong foundation for growth this year and moving forwards. In many ways, this team is built like the Mariners with a fantastic young pitching staff and a volatile offense that could make or break their season.

The Guardians have built an offense that goes against the grain from many modern hitting trends. They had the lowest strikeout rate in the majors last year at 18.7% but they didn’t offset that lack of swing and miss with power or patience; their team walk rate was just 25th and their ISO was dead last. Instead, their batters put the ball in play at the second highest rate in the majors and hoped for good batted ball results to swing their way. José Ramírez is the centerpiece of their lineup; their ability to score runs depends greatly on his ability to produce consistently. Unfortunately, he stumbled through his worst offensive season since 2019 last year. Andrés Giménez, one of the young hitters who helped fuel their postseason run a few years ago, also took a pretty significant step back last year, though his overall numbers were dragged down by a terrible start to the year. There were a few signs of life from the brothers Naylor; Josh had his best season as a pro and Bo had an impressive big league debut.

Probable Pitchers

Updated Stuff+ Explainer

• Stuff+ scores for Mariners starters

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After enjoying a big breakout back in 2022, Triston McKenzie missed nearly the entire season thanks to two major injuries; he hurt his shoulder during spring training, returned to make two starts in June, and then was sidelined until the end of September with an elbow injury. The big key to his breakout was a conscious decision to forego a few strikeouts in favor of reducing his walk rate. His resultant 4.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio was still elite and his ERA dropped under three. His fastball has tons of carry, making it hard to square up, but the pitch’s whiff rate lags behind what we’d expect from a heater with its characteristics. He also possesses two excellent breaking balls that do a lot of the heavy lifting in his pitch mix once he gets ahead.

An elbow injury derailed Shane Bieber’s season last year but it might have been for the best. His fastball velocity had fallen to 91.3 mph, a significant drop from where it was during his Cy Young winning campaign in 2020. He rehabbed during the fall, built his arm strength back up, and even made a trip to Driveline to clean up some of his mechanics. During his first start of this year, his fastball averaged 92.3 mph, reversing the downward trend on that pitch. The rest of his repertoire remains as deadly as ever with his two breaking balls generating the bulk of his swings and misses. He debuted a revamped changeup in his first start of the season in Oakland which could give him yet another above average secondary offering to take the pressure off his fastball.

Logan Allen was one of the trio of young rookie pitchers who made their debut for Cleveland last year, though he’s probably the one with the lowest ceiling. Still, as a lefty with a plus changeup, he should be able to carve out a nice major league career. He doesn’t really throw hard, mostly relying on decent command of his heater along with his secondary pitches to earn outs. Besides his fantastic split change, he also possesses a decent sweeper and a poor cutter. His 2.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn’t all that outstanding but he still managed to post an ERA under four in his first campaign in the big leagues.

The Big Picture:

This might be the last time I’m able to say this this year: LOL Lastros. Houston had plenty of problems against the Yankees in their opening series; their vaunted bullpen coughed up the lead in all four games against New York and their potent lineup was held to just 11 runs total. They’ll host the Blue Jays this week hoping to get into the win column for the first time this season. The Rangers took two of three from the Cubs to start the season and will travel to Tampa Bay this week. The Angels and A’s were stomped by the Orioles and Guardians, respectively, over the weekend. Los Angeles travels to Miami this week while Oakland hosts the Red Sox.