NSF: 1% fewer postdocs in academia in 2022

Via Science's Katie Langin, this news from NSF's Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering: 

New data released by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) reveal a sharp drop in the number of U.S. citizens working as postdocs, especially in the biological and biomedical sciences. The trend underscores concerns that the academic community is facing a postdoc shortage and that early-career scientists are increasingly favoring higher paid positions outside academia.

“It’s an unfortunate situation if domestic researchers are turning down postdoctoral positions because they’re inferior to positions in government or in industry,” says Tom Kimbis, executive director and CEO of the National Postdoctoral Association. “It’s not a situation that’s good for the country.”

The data come from NSF’s Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering, which compiles employment data from academic institutions and estimates the number of STEM graduate students and postdocs across the country. According to the latest data release, 62,750 postdocs were employed at U.S. institutions in the fall of 2022, a 1% drop compared with the year before. But the trend diverges sharply by citizenship. From 2021 to 2022, the number of U.S. citizens and permanent residents working as postdocs dropped from 29,755 to 27,289. The 8% change is the largest year-to-year percentage-wise drop in the history of the survey, which has collected data since 1980. Meanwhile, the number of postdocs with temporary visas increased by 6%, from 33,573 to 35,461, about the same number as in 2020.

This is pretty interesting news. I'm genuinely interested to see if this trend continues, if it indeed is a trend. I'm generally skeptical of narratives that there is a "shortage" of postdocs. I think there is a perceived shortage of candidates from professors, or (another way to put it) the relative desirability of these postdocs has fallen. I have long asserted that postdocs are inferior goods, and this doesn't change my position.