Manchester City vs Aston Villa: Doing the Double?

You’d be forgiven for thinking that it’s City going for the double tonight, but hey, in this time of wonders, it’s Villa who could actually claim that honor. So that’s fun. But the odds seem pretty long given City’s need to win and far better health (never mind their overall depth), and I think most of us realistically are penciling this in as a loss. I’d think about 18 other teams in the league would, as well.

But we are seemingly living in an age of miracles. It wasn’t that long ago Villa comprehensively outplayed a weakened City side at Villa Park, and Villa have had very few truly poor performances this season no matter who they’ve played. Hosting Arsenal at the weekend, we watched City toil to little effect against a resolute title contender. You don’t get many 0-0s at the Etihad. The question is whether the currently bone-thin Villa squad that will travel north can replicate that. Coaching wise, they can. Physically, it’s tougher, especially without the tireless Ollie Watkins leading the line.

As we’ve all noted, the number of key players missing is kind of astonishing. Yes, others have had significant injuries as well, but they’re also deeper teams overall. Spurs have been there or thereabouts for years now. Newcastle were never as bad talent-wise as they looked at times in years past. Same with West Ham. Of the big sides, seems to me only Liverpool have the same kind of depth issues as Villa, but even then they’re starting from a higher floor, obviously. With McGinn and Kamara both missing, well, there simply aren’t replacements.

So where does that leave us? Fortunately, you’d have to say Spurs dropped two points Tuesday against West Ham, which takes a little pressure off tonight. Lose, and we’ve only conceded a point in the race for fourth. Also on the plus side, Diaby seems to be regaining confidence and is getting played to the right way. Zaniolo has started showing signs of the player we thought we might be getting. Rogers is also starting to find his feet, showing both an ability to carry forward and track back…with good pace. While I assume our wrecking ball, Jhon Duran, will take Ollie’s spot, Rogers might be the closer analogue in terms of overall contribution. But I’m thinking he’ll continue to slot in more like Ramsey would.

Besides Ollie, the biggest miss obvioulsy will be McGinn and his ability to hold, pass, scrap, and generally glue things together. That will fall squarely on Luis tonight. Tielemans will have to dig in and avoid some of the lazy balls.

I think I’ve probably given every Villa manager this advice over the years, which is to sit back, be compact, and look for goals on the counter and set pieces. Most of them haven’t taken it, except those who always set up that way. But Mikel gave it a whirl and it worked.

I think if I’m Emery, I’m challenging the squad to show they’re Champions League quality tonight. To show that even in adversity, they can come out and be smart, disciplined, and committed. That they can frustrate and deny if they stick to the plan. Think of it as an away fixture in the knockout rounds.

The biggest trick is to be switched on from the start, not go behind early. Oldest cliché in the book, but it’s there for a reason. Between Duran, Morgan, Bailey, Diaby and Zaniolo, you’d like to think there’s a goal or two in us if we’re smart about it. It’s mainly the middle of the park I’m worried about in terms of ‘control’, and then how we hold up on the flanks in terms of penetration and cutbacks. We’ll see how committed City are to high pressing, or whether they’ll be content to look to win it back in the middle of the park. I might limit our typical patterns in playing it out from the back and look for quicker outlets upfield. We’ve seen it a few times. It’s just a matter of whether the quality is there on the night. Could well be that just one perfect Tielemans pass will unlock something, or a Bailey drive that creates a good chance.

Bottom line, we don’t want to lose our heads, get stretched, turn it over and give them all sorts of room to play and run into. Just as we’ve seen with Villa, they can get frustrated when everything is compressed, and they will commit a lot of bodies forward. Villa need to show discipline not just in keeping their shape and not switching off, but in their decision-making.

So there’s my masterclass. If Villa do pull a rabbit out of the hat and win, well, it would be one hell of a statement and might just see them over the line, mentally. If they can come away with a draw, that would be extremely credible. If they lose, it’s not the end of the world or the race. Regardless, as always, I only ask that they put in a shift and give a good account.

Over to you.