This Year, The “Way-Too-Early” Rankings Are Especially Early

In the era of the transfer portal, projecting rosters in early April is a fool’s errand

Each year, before the confetti has been fully cleared from whatever cavernous football arena the Final Four was held in, the sports media ecosystem becomes flooded with a different type of garbage: the annual “way-too-early” rankings.

In the past, these rankings would inevitably face seismic shifts as players announced their NBA draft decisions. Now, in the age of the transfer portal, no player can be 100% counted on as a “returner” until the transfer portal window closes (on May 1). Add in an extra unknown in whether the last class of “COVID super seniors” will take advantage of that extra year of eligibility (and the likely NIL income), and what was once a fool’s errand becomes nothing more than a barely educated guess.

Counterintuitively, in this new era the most binding commitment to a program is the letter of intent an incoming freshman has to sign, which is perhaps why Duke is atop many of these early rankings (including ESPN’s). The Blue Devils are lucky to know, with as much certainty as is possible in the modern college landscape, that Cooper Flagg, Khaman Maluach, and Isaiah Evans (all projected lottery picks in the 2025 draft, with Flagg and Maluach potentially competing for the No. 1 overall pick) will be in Durham this fall. That is the core of a competing team, sure, but it’s a core of young freshman in an era where youth-led teams have struggled in March. Whether or not Duke is a legitimate pick for pre-season No. 1 depends more on the decisions of its potential returning players, about which we know absolutely nothing.

At the risk of picking on ESPN’s rankings (I’m sure this type of piece was pushed from on high, and not a passion piece by Jeff Borzello, after all), the silliness of the endeavor is apparent as early as the projected Top 5. UConn just impressively won back-to-back national championships, but will in all likelihood lose at least 4 starters from this year’s team. Yet they’re a way-too-early Top 5 team through faith in Dan Hurley alone, not based on any feature of the roster (which is projected to not have a single player who averaged double digit scoring this past season, let alone a Top 25 recruit).

Look down the list, and you’ll notice that it’s so filled with teams that performed well this season (Houston, Arizona, Tennessee, etc.), to the point that you might wonder if these rankings are just a partially informed jumble of the final AP Top 25 rankings. However, history tells us that many of those teams will be unrecognizable this fall given the transfer portal, while some other unexpected team will find a way to piece together a group from said portal that will exceed all expectations.

So read these pieces (and they’re everywhere this morning!) with a big heaping portion of salt rather than just the requisite grain. Despite the “way-too-early” disclaimer, this year more than any other, the way-too-early rankings are, for lack of an artful phrase, way-way-too-early.