UFC 300 predictions: Who wins big on the most stacked preliminary card ever?

UFC 300 isn’t just the deepest card in company history, its preliminary card stands up against MMA’s best-ever lineups.

Former UFC champions Jiri Prochazka, Aljamain Sterling, Holly Holm, Jessica Andrade, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Cody Garbrandt all take the stage before Saturday’s pay-per-view even begins. They’re not just being thrown into showcase fights either.

Prochazka welcomes back would-be title challenger Aleksandar Rakic. Sterling moves up to 145 pounds to face perennial top 10 contender Calvin Kattar. Holm is tasked with taking on two-time PFL champion Kayla Harrison. Any one of these names could vault into a title shot with a standout performance.

All that, plus century-event staple Jim Miller makes UFC walk No. 44, and a couple of barn burner fights between Sodiq Yusuff and Diego Lopes, and Jalin Turner and Renato Moicano.

So who gets it done on the greatest prelims of all-time?

What: UFC 300

Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas

When: Saturday, April. The card begins with a four-fight early prelims portion on ESPN and ESPN+ at 6 p.m. ET, with continuing coverage of the four-fight prelim card also on ESPN and ESPN+ beginning at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.

(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in MMA Fighting’s Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)

Jiri Prochazka (2) vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Upon initial analysis, this matchup tilts slightly in Jiri Prochazka’s favor. After Aleksandar Rakic dared to question his samurai spirit though? Prochazka will be out for blood.

You simply do not poke logic holes in the conviction of a man who has tastefully rocked the top knot for years, trains using methods that would make David Blaine concerned, and sincerely invoked the 18-year-old Zack Snyder film 300 (I know, he’s mixing his historical inspirations at this point) to hype your fight. Prochazka is a threat to knock out anyone on his worst day and now you want to make him angry?

Rakic has all the skills to spoil Prochazka’s championship reclamation plans, whether it’s outpointing him on the feet or using his wrestling to neutralize the Czech slugger. But keep in mind Prochazka is allergic to scorecards, so this one isn’t going the distance. If it comes down to who can land a hammer shot first, you can’t pick against Prochazka.

You know that classic samurai duel sequence where two swordsmen rush at each other, there’s a flash of blades, and then a dramatic pause before one guy falls? Rakic is the one who falls.

Pick: Prochazka

Aljamain Sterling (BW-4, P4P-T18) vs. Calvin Kattar (10)

For his featherweight debut, Aljamain Sterling couldn’t have asked for more than a top 10 opponent like Calvin Kattar. On paper, Kattar is a difficult, but beatable proof-of-concept challenge for Sterling in his new weight class. Given his lengthy run of success at 135 pounds, few would complain too much if Sterling was granted a title shot with an impressive win over Kattar.

Unfortunately for Sterling, this test might be a little too legit. Kattar has excellent takedown defense and he’s going to have a noticeable size advantage over “Funk Master.” As effective as Sterling can be on the feet, wrestling and submissions are his bread and butter, so he’ll have to rely on those skills to beat a fighter that typically only loses to strikers. It’s an uphill battle for Sterling and he won’t have 25 minutes to break Kattar down.

Kattar has plenty of motivation coming off of a knee injury that brought his fight with Arnold Allen to an unceremonious end. As long as that injury is fully healed, he takes a decision.

Pick: Kattar

Kayla Harrison (P4P-19) vs. Holly Holm (4, P4P-T20)

Everyone knows that Kayla Harrison is a powerful grappler and that there’s a good chance she grounds Holly Holm and judos all over her for three rounds.

What my prediction presupposes is... maybe she doesn’t?

Historically, Holm hasn’t had too much trouble with wrestlers. She has incredible balance and when she gets taken down, she doesn’t stay down for long. Where she’ll have to adjust the most is in the clinch, one of her preferred positions to work, because Harrison has a variety of ways to throw Holm around once she gets close. As good as Holm is at mixing the martial arts, she should stay away and stick with her striking roots in this one.

That’s one aspect of Harrison’s game that is night and day since she started as far as how much she’s improved, but she still doesn’t have the striking vocabulary needed to outwit Holm on the feet. Don’t love that massive cut down to 135 either.

Look, I’m already on record arguing that Holm will get yet another title shot if she beats Harrison, so I’m all in on this pick.

Pick: Holm

Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes

When last we saw Sodiq Yusuff, he was soooooo close to finishing Edson Barboza and exhibiting the finishing ability that we all know he’s capable of. Whether it was due to a lack of composure or Barboza’s inhuman toughness, Yusuff not only missed out on a knockout, but Barboza came back to beat him.

That loss put Yusuff at a crossroads. While he’s thriving outside of the cage with a role in Disney’s animated miniseries Iwájù and his always off-the-wall fight predictions, he may have stagnated as a featherweight contender. That’s one reason why his fight with MMA Fighting’s 2023 Rookie of the Year Diego Lopes is so important.

Lopes has charmed fans and media with his entertaining fight style and proficient coaching, making him a favorite to break through to the top 15 this year. He goes in there to finish and he has the instincts to put away the durable Yusuff. Considering he also has a wealth of pre-UFC experience, you can see why he’s slightly favored against Yusuff here.

I expect Lopes’ combination of skills will surprise Yusuff, as it’s been a while since he’s faced a versatile finisher of this caliber. Let’s have some fun here and predict that Lopes becomes the first fighter to submit Yusuff.

Pick: Lopes

Jalin Turner (12) vs. Renato Moicano (13)

Speed kills, but experience and grit go a long way too, so Renato Moicano might just have a leg up in this matchup.

Jalin Turner’s potential has been scary since he made his UFC debut six years ago. His large frame and dangerous hands have put him on the cusp of greatness; a win over Moicano pushes him that much closer to a top 5 spot.

“Money” Moicano is an extraordinarily tough out, one that I’ve made the mistake of picking against in his past two fights. Specifically, I haven’t given enough respect to his adaptability. Moicano isn’t just smart when it comes to business, he knows to stick to what’s best for his chances to win fights. He enjoys a scrap, but doesn’t just strike to brawl, he strikes to set up takedowns so he can get the fight to the ground. That’s where the fun begins.

The rangy Turner can be a handful in the grappling department, but Moicano’s submission expertise is second to few. Look for Turner to get off to a fast start, only to fall prey to Moicano’s wrestling in Round 2 and eventually be forced to tap out.

Pick: Moicano

Jessica Andrade (T5, P4P-15) vs. Marina Rodriguez (8)

Jessica Andrade looked outstanding in her most recent fight, snapping an ugly losing streak with a shellacking of Mackenzie Dern. I’m just not sure she’s all the way back.

The fact is that Andrade has had issues with speedy, technical strikers in the past. Joanna Jedrzejczyk, Yan Xiaonan, and Rose Namajunas all gave her headaches on the feet. “Bate Estaca” is a constant threat to knock or choke someone out, but if she can’t close the distance effectively, she drops rounds.

Marina Rodriguez checks off several of the boxes needed to beat Andrade. She’s taller, has excellent defense, and her standup style is designed for three-round scraps. My gut tells me Andrade should add another finish to the highlight reel, but my brain says Rodriguez outworks her to win a decision.

Pick: Rodriguez

Jim Miller vs. Bobby Green

Do we have to pick a winner for this one? Can we not just enjoy this fight for what it is, two of the lightweight division’s most enduring warriors earning a well-deserved spot on a massive card? Must we predict?

If we must, I’m going with Bobby Green. Outside of an incredible run in the early 2010s—man, Jim Miller has been around for a long time—Miller has a clear ceiling and I think that ceiling has Green’s face staring down at him. If Miller were to force a ground battle, I’d like his chances more, but one gets the sense that there’s a gentleman’s agreement between these two to keep it standing and do their damndest to steal Fight of the Night from the BMFers.

Green has the striking and the knockout power to end this early or at least put Miller on the back-foot for the majority of the bout. These two will throw down for three rounds and then take an emotional victory lap afterwards, with Green getting the respectful nod on the scorecards.

Pick: Green

Cody Garbrandt vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (11)

OK, yes, for all you sickos out there, this banger of a preliminary opener has an I-don’t-want-to-look-but-I-must knockout written all over it, and yes, it’s most likely Cody Garbrandt that will be left lying.

That might not be fair to the former bantamweight champion, but the prevailing sentiment seems to be that he’ll eventually end up in a firefight with Deiveson Figueiredo and given Garbrandt’s history of violent KO losses, that’s bad. We should remind ourselves that Garbrandt packs plenty of punch himself and though Figueiredo has a sturdy chin, it’s not inconceivable that Garbrandt lands first and puts Figueiredo down. Right?

There could be no wilder start to the card than Garbrandt silencing all the doubters with a surprise shellacking of Figueiredo. But as Jed Meshew—who is looking forward to the inevitable end to this match as much as anyone—is fond of saying, “Grow up, Peter Pan. Count Chocula.”

Figueiredo by knockout.

Pick: Figueiredo