How the Lakers could still finish seventh in the Western Conference standings

Despite sitting in 10th in the standings entering Friday’s games, the Lakers could still finish as high as seventh in the Western Conference.

Things are pretty bleak for the Lakers right now following Tuesday’s loss to the Warriors, a game that took the team’s destiny out of it’s own hands. Even if the Lakers win both of their remaining games this weekend, they need help to move up in the standings.

Even with just two days of games remaining, there are so many possible scenarios that it quickly gets confusing. That’s largely because four of the five teams competing for the play-in spots play each other on Friday.

The picture will be a lot clearer for the Lakers and everyone else after Friday’s games. For the Lakers, the best-case, most realistic scenario involves the Suns and Pelicans winning on Friday. In that scenario, under the assumption that the Lakers win, the purple and gold would enter Sunday as the eighth seed and just in need of a win against New Orleans.

However, the absolute best-case scenario does not involve those results on Friday but does end with the Lakers finishing as the seventh seed. Is it realistic? No. Is it fun? Yes.

Here’s how it would break down:

Sacramento Kings

Let’s just get the unrealistic part out of the way now. The Lakers need the Kings to drop one of their final two games so that they aren’t in a tiebreaker with the Lakers at season’s end.

However, they also need Phoenix to drop both of it’s final two games as they’re two games ahead of the Lakers. Those two things intersect because the Kings and Suns play on Friday, which means the Lakers would need Sacramento to win that game and lose their final game.

That’s fine on paper, but their final game against the season is against the Blazers, a team that has lost eight of it’s last 10 games.

Now, if you want the smallest glimmer of hope, the Blazers won the last meeting between the two teams in late December. And in the first game of the season between the two, they went to overtime.

But Portland is trying not to win and Sacramento has everything at stake. It’s just not a realistic scenario.

Phoenix Suns

This one is both straightforward and realistic. Phoenix needs to lose it’s final two games so they’re in a tie with the Lakers in which the purple and gold hold the tiebreaker.

As we discussed, that involves the Suns losing to the Kings on Friday — easy to believe — and losing to the Timberwolves on Sunday, also easy to believe. Both are road games and I’d go as far as to say it’s the most likely outcome of the two games.

Golden State Warriors

Because they hold the tiebreaker over the Lakers, the Warriors also need to drop one of their final two games. Which game they lose —either Friday at home or Sunday at Utah — doesn’t matter.

Losing to New Orleans isn’t impossible, but the Warriors are going to be favorites there. And Utah has been one of the worst teams in the league of late. So you’d really need a Pelicans win on Friday.

If all of that plays out, the final play-in standings would be

7. Lakers 47-35
8. Suns 47-35
9. Kings 46-34
10. Warriors 46-34 or 45-35

Again, it’s improbable because of one result — Sacramento’s loss to Portland — but just it’s not impossible. According to Basketball Reference’s playoff probabilities, the chances of the Lakers ending the weekend as the No. 7 seed are 3%.

So you’re telling me there’s a chance...

You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude.