Tony Awards odds updates: Plays ‘An Enemy of the People’ and ‘Stereophonic’ gaining momentum
The nominations for the 77th Tony Awards will be announced in less than three weeks, but the lay of the land is more in flux than ever with five more plays and play revivals still to open before the eligibility cutoff. As these last few remaining shows begin preview performances, our savvy users have been updating their choices for the most likely nominees in seven of the 11 play categories. See below for a breakdown of how our official odds have changed in the top categories since our last predictions center update on March 22, according to the 1,200 readers currently making their picks. Scroll to the bottom of the article for a tally of nominations by show in seven of the 11 play categories.
UP
“An Enemy of the People” — Three weeks ago, our users thought this production of Henrik Ibsen’s classic drama, newly adapted by Pulitzer Prize finalist Amy Herzog, would only net nominations for performers Jeremy Strong and Michael Imperioli. It has surged in support since then, though, breaking through in the extremely competitive Best Play Revival race for the first time. We also now anticipate its Tony-winning director Sam Gold to earn the third nomination of his career; he was last nominated in 2017 for a modern continuation of another Ibsen play, “A Doll’s House, Part 2.”
“Stereophonic” — This drama set in a recording studio in the 1970s has been one of the leading contenders in our odds for Best Play and Best Director since the predictions center opened. Now that the show has started performances at the Golden Theatre, our users think some of its ensemble cast will reap nominations, too, including featured actress Sarah Pidgeon and featured actor Will Brill.
“Mary Jane” — The star of this Manhattan Theatre Club play, Rachel McAdams, has been on the cusp of the four-person Best Actress category since the start. While she fell out of our predictions three weeks ago, she has returned to one of the top slots in the lineup for her Broadway debut. The actress stars as a single mother who leans on her friends to navigate a difficult personal situation.
DOWN
“Uncle Vanya” — This new adaptation of the Anton Chekhov play by Pulitzer Prize finalist Heidi Schreck has taken the biggest tumble in our predictions center in the last few weeks, a time during which it began preview performances at the Vivian Beaumont Theater. Our odds once forecast this starry production landing nominations for Best Play Revival, Actor (Steve Carell), Actress (Anika Noni Rose), Featured Actor (Alfred Molina) and Featured Actress (Jayne Houdyshell), but now our users only predict a single bid for Carell, who is making his Broadway debut in the title role.
“Prayer for the French Republic” — This closed Manhattan Theatre Club production has been teetering between two and three nominations in our predictions center since launch. Three weeks ago, our combined odds suggested it would net three bids for Best Play, Featured Actress (Francis Benhamou) and Best Director (David Cromer), and it has now slipped back to two, losing support for its potential bid for direction.
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FLAT
All of the other productions that we expect to earn nominations are holding steady as we barrel toward the end of Tony eligibility. Those shows are “Appropriate,” “Mother Play,” “Patriots” and “Purlie Victorious” with four nominations, “Doubt” with two, and “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding” with one.
Nominations Predictions
Appropriate — 4
An Enemy of the People — 4
Mother Play — 4
Patriots — 4
Purlie Victorious — 4
Stereophonic — 4
Doubt — 2
Prayer for the French Republic — 2
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding — 1
Mary Jane — 1
Uncle Vanya — 1
The tally of total nominations by show does not include the four categories of Scenic Design, Costume Design, Lighting Design and Sound Design.
PREDICT the 2024 Tony Awards nominations through April 30
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